Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly Intensify Anti-Obesity Drug Competition
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Competition Dynamics: Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy has taken the lead in the anti-obesity market since its January launch, garnering more prescriptions, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo, launched in April, despite having 80% new users, is trailing in prescription volumes.
- Efficacy Comparison: In clinical trials, oral Wegovy's mean weight loss of 13.6% over 64 weeks significantly outperforms Foundayo's 11.1%, providing Novo Nordisk with a stronger competitive edge, although the latter has some advantages regarding administration restrictions.
- Market Expansion Opportunities: Novo Nordisk's recent EU approval will significantly expand the addressable market for oral Wegovy, further solidifying its position in the anti-obesity drug sector and potentially increasing pressure on Eli Lilly.
- Financial Performance Comparison: Despite trailing in the oral anti-obesity market, Eli Lilly remains strong in chronic weight management, with a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.8 billion in Q1, showcasing the resilience of its diversified drug portfolio.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1126.800
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1126.800
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Expands Coverage for Obesity Medications
- Expanded Coverage: Eli Lilly announced that its obesity medication portfolio will be covered by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., significantly increasing access to FDA-approved treatment options for millions of Americans, thereby enhancing patient choice and accessibility.
- Reduced Medication Costs: Starting June 1, eligible patients will pay as little as $25 per month for Foundayo and Zepbound, which is expected to significantly lower the financial burden on patients and promote broader adoption of these medications.
- Clinical Trial Validation: The ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 clinical trials enrolled over 4,500 individuals with obesity or overweight, demonstrating that Foundayo led to an average weight loss of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) over 72 weeks, providing robust evidence of its efficacy and further solidifying Lilly's market position in obesity treatment.
- Competitive Market Advantage: Zepbound, the most prescribed injectable obesity medication in the U.S., achieved an average weight loss of 15% (34 lbs) over 72 weeks, enhancing patients' quality of life and securing a larger market share for Lilly in the competitive obesity drug landscape.
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- Reta Drug Potential: Reta (retatrutide), Eli Lilly's next-generation obesity drug, is still awaiting approval, yet in the phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 trial, patients on the highest dose lost an average of 70.3 pounds (28.3%), indicating its potential to reshape the obesity treatment landscape and investor perceptions.
- Broad Market Impact: Investors are optimistic about the future of GLP-1 drugs, believing they could expand into various areas including obesity, diabetes, and sleep apnea, which not only drives Eli Lilly's stock price but also influences related sectors such as packaged food, alcohol, and retail stocks.
- Technical Resistance Test: Eli Lilly's stock approaches the historical high of $1,100, and a breakout above this level could re-establish record territory, further solidifying healthcare's leadership within the S&P 500, while a rejection could lead to a potential double-top pattern, increasing market uncertainty.
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- Increased Drug Accessibility: With CVS Caremark covering approximately 25 to 30 million Americans, Eli Lilly's full obesity medication portfolio is now accessible through the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., which is expected to significantly enhance market penetration for its products.
- Importance of Foundayo: Foundayo, as Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 medication, addresses the barrier of needle aversion, and its inclusion in CVS's formulary is likely to accelerate market acceptance and reduce the typical access hurdles faced by new drugs.
- Investment and Demand Growth: Eli Lilly has invested $21 billion in U.S. manufacturing capabilities to meet surging demand for its weight-loss medications, particularly after clinical trials for Foundayo showed significant weight loss in adults aged 65 and older, further boosting market confidence in the company's growth prospects.
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- Consumer Spending Recovery: Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.1% in April after a 1.6% rise in March, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence that could drive economic growth.
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- Focus on Female Patients: New analyses from the ATTAIN program highlight Foundayo's applicability among women at all stages of menopause, indicating its significance in the future of cardiometabolic care and potentially attracting more female patients to the drug.
- Obesity Treatment Breakthrough: The first-in-class triple receptor agonist retatrutide demonstrated powerful efficacy in obesity and type 2 diabetes complications, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in cardiometabolic health and driving diversification of its product portfolio.
- Investor Event Arrangement: Lilly will host an investor event on June 6 to highlight its cardiometabolic health portfolio and discuss key disclosures from the meeting, which is expected to attract investor interest and bolster market confidence.
See More
Eli Lilly Expands Coverage for Obesity Medications
- Expanded Coverage: Eli Lilly announced that its obesity medication portfolio will be covered by the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., significantly increasing access to FDA-approved treatment options for millions of Americans, thereby enhancing patient choice and accessibility.
- Reduced Medication Costs: Starting June 1, eligible patients will pay as little as $25 per month for Foundayo and Zepbound, which is expected to significantly lower the financial burden on patients and promote broader adoption of these medications.
- Clinical Trial Validation: The ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 clinical trials enrolled over 4,500 individuals with obesity or overweight, demonstrating that Foundayo led to an average weight loss of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) over 72 weeks, providing robust evidence of its efficacy and further solidifying Lilly's market position in obesity treatment.
- Competitive Market Advantage: Zepbound, the most prescribed injectable obesity medication in the U.S., achieved an average weight loss of 15% (34 lbs) over 72 weeks, enhancing patients' quality of life and securing a larger market share for Lilly in the competitive obesity drug landscape.
See More
Regulatory Approvals and Collaborations in Biotech Sector
- FDA Approval for AZN: AstraZeneca (AZN) secured FDA approval for the IMFINZI + BCG combination in high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, supported by Phase 3 POTOMAC data showing a 32% reduction in recurrence or death, enhancing its competitive edge in oncology.
- JNJ TREMFYA Label Expansion: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) received FDA approval to add structural joint-damage inhibition data to the TREMFYA label for active psoriatic arthritis, confirming its unique position in first-line treatment with no new safety signals, reinforcing its market leadership.
- LINZESS Approved for Children: Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) gained FDA approval for LINZESS to treat functional constipation in children aged 2-5, based on a 12-week Phase 3 trial showing significant improvement in spontaneous bowel movements, expanding its pediatric market influence.
- AbbVie's DECNUPAZ Approval: AbbVie (ABBV) received FDA approval for DECNUPAZ to treat ultra-rare blood cancer BPDCN, supported by Phase 1 data showing a 69.7% composite complete response rate and a median duration of 9.7 months, marking a significant innovation in hematologic oncology.
See More
Eli Lilly's Market Cap Surpasses $1 Trillion Again
- Record High Stock Price: Eli Lilly (LLY) closed at $1,126.80 on May 28, marking a significant recovery with over a 25% increase since the March 30 low, reflecting strong market anticipation for its new drug Reta and solidifying its leadership in the GLP-1 market.
- Reta Drug Potential: Reta (retatrutide), Eli Lilly's next-generation obesity drug, is still awaiting approval, yet in the phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 trial, patients on the highest dose lost an average of 70.3 pounds (28.3%), indicating its potential to reshape the obesity treatment landscape and investor perceptions.
- Broad Market Impact: Investors are optimistic about the future of GLP-1 drugs, believing they could expand into various areas including obesity, diabetes, and sleep apnea, which not only drives Eli Lilly's stock price but also influences related sectors such as packaged food, alcohol, and retail stocks.
- Technical Resistance Test: Eli Lilly's stock approaches the historical high of $1,100, and a breakout above this level could re-establish record territory, further solidifying healthcare's leadership within the S&P 500, while a rejection could lead to a potential double-top pattern, increasing market uncertainty.
See More
Eli Lilly Shares Surge After CVS Restores Zepbound and Adds Foundayo
- Stock Price Surge: Eli Lilly's shares rose 3.4% to $1,124 in afternoon trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following CVS's restoration of Zepbound as a co-preferred option, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's new drug offerings.
- Increased Drug Accessibility: With CVS Caremark covering approximately 25 to 30 million Americans, Eli Lilly's full obesity medication portfolio is now accessible through the three largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S., which is expected to significantly enhance market penetration for its products.
- Importance of Foundayo: Foundayo, as Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 medication, addresses the barrier of needle aversion, and its inclusion in CVS's formulary is likely to accelerate market acceptance and reduce the typical access hurdles faced by new drugs.
- Investment and Demand Growth: Eli Lilly has invested $21 billion in U.S. manufacturing capabilities to meet surging demand for its weight-loss medications, particularly after clinical trials for Foundayo showed significant weight loss in adults aged 65 and older, further boosting market confidence in the company's growth prospects.
See More
U.S. Stocks Reach Record Highs as Investor Optimism Grows
- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.6%, and the Dow Jones inched up by 0.1%, all hitting record highs, reflecting investor optimism about future economic recovery.
- Consumer Spending Recovery: Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.1% in April after a 1.6% rise in March, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence that could drive economic growth.
- International Situation Impact: Market sentiment improved following news of a 60-day memorandum of understanding between U.S. and Iranian negotiators, leading to a pullback in oil prices to around $89 per barrel, highlighting investor concerns over geopolitical risks.
- Strong ETF Performance: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust rose approximately 0.6% and 1% respectively, reflecting strong investor interest in tech and consumer stocks, further propelling the market upward.
See More
Foundayo Outperforms Competitors in Type 2 Diabetes Treatment
- Clinical Trial Results: Foundayo outperformed oral semaglutide and dapagliflozin in the latest Phase 3 ACHIEVE study, showcasing its potential to redefine oral incretin therapy, thereby enhancing the company's competitive edge in the diabetes market.
- Focus on Female Patients: New analyses from the ATTAIN program highlight Foundayo's applicability among women at all stages of menopause, indicating its significance in the future of cardiometabolic care and potentially attracting more female patients to the drug.
- Obesity Treatment Breakthrough: The first-in-class triple receptor agonist retatrutide demonstrated powerful efficacy in obesity and type 2 diabetes complications, further solidifying Lilly's leadership in cardiometabolic health and driving diversification of its product portfolio.
- Investor Event Arrangement: Lilly will host an investor event on June 6 to highlight its cardiometabolic health portfolio and discuss key disclosures from the meeting, which is expected to attract investor interest and bolster market confidence.
See More
