November Sees Increase in Mortgage Delinquencies, Consistent with Historical Trends, Reports ICE Mortgage
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 23 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Mortgage Delinquency Rate: The national mortgage delinquency rate rose to 3.85% in November, the highest in over four years, with a significant increase in newly delinquent borrowers, totaling 609,000.
Foreclosure Trends: Foreclosure starts decreased by 32% month-over-month but increased by 25% year-over-year, while total foreclosure sales also saw a dip of 14% month-over-month and a rise of 25% year-over-year.
Prepayment Rate: The monthly prepayment rate fell to 0.83%, marking an 18% decrease from the previous month but a 31% increase compared to the same month last year.
Market Performance: The iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) dropped 1.6% in the past week but is up 5.0% year-to-date, while the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT) increased by 2.1% in the past week and 3.3% year-to-date.
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Analyst Views on ICE
Wall Street analysts forecast ICE stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 165.070
Low
174.00
Averages
191.60
High
223.00
Current: 165.070
Low
174.00
Averages
191.60
High
223.00
About ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. provides financial technology and data services across major asset classes, helping its customers access workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. Its Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. Its Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics and execution services as well as global credit default swaps (CDS), clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. Its Mortgage Technology segment provides a technology platform that offers customers comprehensive, digital workflow tools that aim to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the United States residential mortgage market life cycle, from application through closing, servicing and the secondary market.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- ICE Financial Highlights: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) reported revenues of $2.50 billion, up 7.8% year-on-year, surpassing analysts' expectations by 1.2%, although the stock remained flat post-reporting, indicating that the market had likely priced in the results.
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- Technical Analysis Data: According to data from Technical Analysis Channel, ICE's stock price is above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential upward trend technically, which may attract more investor attention and influence future trading decisions.
- Market Sentiment Assessment: The current stock price of $166.97 is close to the 52-week high, potentially sparking buying interest among investors, especially against a backdrop of increasing demand for high-dividend stocks, which could further drive the stock price up.
- Investor Perspectives: While the author's views do not reflect those of Nasdaq, the analysis and commentary on ICE stock indicate varying opinions among investors regarding its future performance, which may influence trading strategies in the short term.
See More
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- Non-GAAP Expense Revision: The non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses are now projected to be between $1.030B and $1.040B, an increase from the prior estimate of $1.010B to $1.020B, reflecting the company's efforts in cost management.
- Significant Volume Growth: The company expects a 45% year-over-year increase in average daily volume for Q1, with financial products seeing a remarkable 65% rise, indicating that heightened market activity will generate substantial revenue for the firm.
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See More
Q4 Performance Review of Financial Exchanges
- Overall Performance: Financial exchanges and data providers collectively reported Q4 revenues that exceeded analysts' expectations by 0.8%, demonstrating resilience in the industry amid stable trading fees and subscription revenues, despite facing regulatory and technology investment challenges.
- ICE Financial Highlights: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) reported revenues of $2.50 billion, up 7.8% year-on-year, surpassing analysts' expectations by 1.2%, although the stock remained flat post-reporting, indicating that the market had likely priced in the results.
- Morningstar's Strong Performance: Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) achieved Q4 revenues of $641.1 million, an 8.5% year-on-year increase, beating analysts' expectations by 2.2%, with the stock rising 16.6%, reflecting a positive market reaction to its robust performance.
- S&P Global Facing Challenges: S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) reported revenues of $3.92 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, but its full-year EPS guidance significantly missed analysts' expectations, leading to a 3% decline in stock price, indicating market concerns about its future performance.
See More
Trump's Announcement Pausing Attacks on Iran Triggers Trading Investigation
- Investigation Launched: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is examining unusual oil futures trades that occurred minutes before Trump's announcement to pause attacks on Iran, indicating market sensitivity to sudden news that could impact investor confidence.
- Volume Surge: Trading volumes spiked sharply in the two weeks leading up to key announcements, particularly after Trump revealed negotiations with Iran, with S&P 500 futures jumping over 2.5% and WTI crude futures tumbling nearly 6%, reflecting the market's volatile reaction.
- Market Integrity Focus: CME Group stated that any investigation should encompass all trading platforms, emphasizing the importance of market integrity, suggesting that regulatory scrutiny on trading activities may influence future trading strategies.
- Political Influence Factors: Senators Warren and Whitehouse have called for the CFTC to investigate these unusual trades, raising questions about potential misuse of nonpublic government information, which could lead to decreased market trust and impact policy transparency.
See More
Congressman Calls for Probe into Insider Trading
- Call for Investigation: Congressman Ritchie Torres from New York has urged a federal probe into suspicious trading activities just before President Trump's announcement to pause attacks on Iran, suggesting it could be one of the largest insider trading instances in history.
- Trading Anomalies: Over $500 million in crude oil futures trades occurred in the 15 minutes leading up to Trump's announcement, indicating an abnormal surge in trading volume predicting a decline in oil prices and a rebound in equity markets.
- Legislative Proposal: Torres introduced legislation in January to prohibit federal officials from trading event contracts based on government policy when possessing material nonpublic information, although its passage in the Republican-controlled House seems unlikely.
- Crisis of Trust in Regulators: Torres expressed a lack of confidence in market regulators, emphasizing the need for accountability and urging the SEC and CFTC not to overlook what may be a significant insider trading case.
See More
House Democrats Pressure CFTC to Strengthen Prediction Market Oversight
- Regulatory Pressure: House Democrats sent a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig questioning the agency's lack of action against offshore prediction markets related to war and government actions, highlighting growing concerns over insider trading.
- Insider Trading Concerns: Recent allegations of insider trading linked to U.S. government actions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Iran, have prompted lawmakers to demand stricter measures from the CFTC to ensure market fairness and transparency.
- Frequent Legislative Actions: Democrats have introduced several bills aimed at restricting trading on certain event contracts, especially those involving sports, government actions, and war, reflecting heightened vigilance regarding the potential risks of prediction markets.
- Policy Ban Implementation: Rep. Seth Moulton announced a ban on his office staff using prediction markets, further underscoring lawmakers' regulatory needs and emphasizing a zero-tolerance stance on insider trading.
See More
Analysis of ICE Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: ICE's stock has a 52-week low of $143.17 and a high of $189.35, with the last trade at $166.97, indicating significant price movement within this range and reflecting market interest and investor sentiment changes.
- Technical Analysis Data: According to data from Technical Analysis Channel, ICE's stock price is above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential upward trend technically, which may attract more investor attention and influence future trading decisions.
- Market Sentiment Assessment: The current stock price of $166.97 is close to the 52-week high, potentially sparking buying interest among investors, especially against a backdrop of increasing demand for high-dividend stocks, which could further drive the stock price up.
- Investor Perspectives: While the author's views do not reflect those of Nasdaq, the analysis and commentary on ICE stock indicate varying opinions among investors regarding its future performance, which may influence trading strategies in the short term.
See More
ICE Expects Higher Expenses Offset by Strong Revenues
- Expense Forecast Adjustment: ICE now anticipates GAAP operating expenses for Q1 2026 to range between $1.280B and $1.290B, up from the previous estimate of $1.245B to $1.255B, indicating a cautious approach towards future spending.
- Non-GAAP Expense Revision: The non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses are now projected to be between $1.030B and $1.040B, an increase from the prior estimate of $1.010B to $1.020B, reflecting the company's efforts in cost management.
- Significant Volume Growth: The company expects a 45% year-over-year increase in average daily volume for Q1, with financial products seeing a remarkable 65% rise, indicating that heightened market activity will generate substantial revenue for the firm.
- Annual Expense Outlook: For the full year 2026, GAAP operating expenses are now expected to be in the range of $5.095B to $5.145B, up from the previous estimate of $5.010B to $5.075B, suggesting a positive business outlook despite market fluctuations.
See More
