Neurocrine Biosciences Fails to Meet Key Endpoints in Phase 3 KINECT-DCP Study
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 22 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NBIX?
Source: PRnewswire
- Clinical Trial Setback: Neurocrine Biosciences' KINECT-DCP study failed to meet primary and key secondary endpoints, indicating insufficient efficacy in treating dyskinetic cerebral palsy, which negatively impacts the company's market confidence in the neuroscience sector.
- Study Scale and Design: This study represents the largest double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted in patients with dyskinetic cerebral palsy (DCP), involving 14 weeks of treatment, and the inability to demonstrate valbenazine's efficacy may necessitate a reevaluation of future research directions.
- Patient Population Impact: DCP is a non-progressive neurodevelopmental disorder affecting movement and posture, occurring in approximately three out of every 1,000 children, and the lack of effective treatment options poses greater challenges for patients and their families, highlighting the medical need in this area.
- Future Development Uncertainty: Although valbenazine has received FDA approval for other indications, the failure of this trial may affect Neurocrine's market performance and investor confidence, forcing the company to reassess its research strategies and resource allocation.
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Analyst Views on NBIX
Wall Street analysts forecast NBIX stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 123.100
Low
143.00
Averages
179.68
High
203.00
Current: 123.100
Low
143.00
Averages
179.68
High
203.00
About NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a neuroscience-focused, biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in discovering and developing treatments for patients with under-addressed neurological, neuroendocrine and neuropsychiatric disorders. Its diverse portfolio includes the United States Food and Drug Administration-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia, chorea associated with Huntington’s disease, endometriosis and uterine fibroids, as well as a robust pipeline, including multiple compounds in mid-to late-phase clinical development across its core therapeutic areas. Its commercial products include INGREZZA, ALKINDI, EFMODY, Orilissa, and Oriahnn. INGREZZA is marketed as DYSVAL (valbenazine) in Japan and REMLEAS (valbenazine) in other select Asian markets, where Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation retains commercialization rights. ALKINDI is marketed as ALKINDI SPRINKLE (hydrocortisone) in the United States, where Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. retains commercialization rights.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Ingrezza Sales: The strong sales performance of Ingrezza highlights the product's competitiveness in the market, and while the overall earnings report was disappointing, this positive aspect may support future growth for the company.
- 2026 Outlook Meets Expectations: The company's outlook for 2026 aligns with market expectations, suggesting that despite short-term pressures, this stable forecast could bolster investor confidence and encourage long-term investment.
- Analysts See Long-Term Upside: Despite the short-term stock pressure, analysts remain optimistic about Neurocrine's long-term growth potential, believing the company is poised for improved performance in the future.
See More
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- Earnings Report: Neurocrine Biosciences reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.89, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved fourth-quarter sales of $805.5 million, surpassing the market expectation of $792.47 million, reflecting strong market demand.
- Product Sales Performance: Ingrezza's fourth-quarter net product sales reached $657.5 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, while Crenessity's sales were $135.3 million, driven by robust patient demand and over 80% reimbursement coverage.
- Future Outlook: The company expects fiscal 2026 Ingrezza product sales between $2.70 billion and $2.80 billion; despite concerns over a lack of near-term clinical catalysts, analysts remain optimistic about long-term growth potential.
See More
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- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, indicating a shift in market sentiment that could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- Upgrades and Downgrades: While specific upgrades and downgrades are not detailed, such changes typically have a direct impact on the stock prices of the affected companies, prompting investors to closely monitor these shifts to optimize their portfolios.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The adjustments in analyst ratings may trigger short-term market volatility, particularly when investor sentiment is sensitive to certain stocks, potentially leading to rapid price increases or decreases.
- Impact on Investor Decisions: As analysts revise their views on stocks, investors may reassess their investment strategies when considering buying or holding these stocks, thereby affecting overall market liquidity.
See More
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- Significant Growth: In 2025, Neurocrine Biosciences reported total product sales exceeding $2.8 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, with INGREZZA generating over $2.5 billion in revenue, up 9%, indicating strong market demand and effective sales strategies.
- Strong CRENESSITY Launch: CRENESSITY achieved over $300 million in net sales in its first year on the market, covering over 10% of the classic adrenal hyperplasia patient population, demonstrating the company's success in product introduction and market acceptance.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management projects INGREZZA sales to range between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion in 2026, anticipating approximately 10% growth, reflecting confidence in future market potential and ongoing investment strategies.
- Robust Cash Flow: By the end of 2025, the company's cash reserves increased to $2.5 billion, up $700 million from $1.8 billion at the end of 2024, showcasing strong operational performance and a healthy financial position that supports future R&D and market expansion.
See More
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- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $805.5 million, a 28.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations by $16.2 million, reflecting strong sales of its core products that boosted overall performance.
- 2026 Financial Guidance: The company projects INGREZZA net product sales between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion, with GAAP R&D expenses expected to be between $1.2 billion and $1.25 billion, highlighting its commitment to future R&D investments aimed at driving new drug development.
- R&D Expenditure: Non-GAAP R&D expenses are projected to be between $1.11 billion and $1.16 billion, with both GAAP and non-GAAP IPR&D at $20 million, indicating ongoing investment in R&D despite profitability pressures.
See More
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- Sales Performance Growth: Neurocrine reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 net product sales of $798.3 million and $2.83 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 29% and 22%, respectively, which underscores the company's robust market demand and sales capabilities, solidifying its position in the biopharmaceutical industry.
- INGREZZA Sales Performance: For INGREZZA, net product sales in the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 were $657.5 million and $2.51 billion, with year-over-year growth of 7% and 9%, respectively, demonstrating strong prescription volume growth driven by patient demand, despite the impact of new formulary access investments.
- CRENESSITY Market Expansion: CRENESSITY achieved net product sales of $135.3 million and $301.2 million in the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, respectively, with 431 and 2,048 new patient enrollment forms, indicating over 80% reimbursement coverage, reflecting increasing market acceptance and demand.
- R&D Pipeline Progress: The company is set to advance multiple clinical projects, including osavampator and direclidine, in 2026, which are expected to provide innovative treatment options for patients while creating long-term value for the company, further enhancing its competitiveness in the neuropsychiatry drug sector.
See More
