Mpox Outbreak Has the World on High Alert. What to Know.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 19 2024
0mins
Should l Buy EBS?
Source: Barron's
Mpox Outbreak in Central Africa: A surge in mpox cases, particularly a new strain (clade Ib), has prompted the WHO to declare it a public-health emergency. The outbreak is primarily affecting the Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighboring countries, with over 15,600 cases reported this year.
Vaccine Availability and Concerns: Bavarian Nordic's Jynneos vaccine is approved for mpox prevention, but there are concerns about vaccine supply in Africa, where 10 million doses are needed but only 200,000 are currently available. The company plans to increase production to meet demand by 2025.
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Analyst Views on EBS
Wall Street analysts forecast EBS stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.540
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Current: 8.540
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About EBS
Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. is a life sciences company. It is focused on providing preparedness and response solutions addressing accidental, deliberate and naturally occurring public health threats. Its solutions include a product portfolio, a product development portfolio, and a contract development and manufacturing services portfolio. Its segments include Commercial Products, MCM Products, and Services segment. Its Commercial Product segment consists of NARCAN Nasal Spray. Its MCM Products segment consists of Anthrax MCM products, Smallpox MCM products and Other Products. Its Services segment consists of its Bioservices portfolio. NARCAN (naloxone HCl) Nasal Spray, an intranasal formulation of naloxone, is developed for the emergency treatment of known or suspected opioid overdose as manifested by respiratory and central nervous system depression. Its Bioservices consist of development services, bulk drug substance manufacturing, fill, finish, and packaging of final drug products.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Financial Performance: Emergent BioSolutions reported Q1 2026 revenue of $156 million and adjusted EBITDA of $36 million, representing a 23% margin, indicating stable performance despite market challenges.
- International Market Growth: International markets now account for 37% of total MCM revenue, demonstrating significant progress in global expansion, which is expected to further drive revenue growth and market share enhancement.
- Strategic Partnerships: New strategic partnerships with Substipharm Biologics and SAB Biotherapeutics will restart manufacturing at the Canton facility to support the Japanese encephalitis vaccine, showcasing the company's strategic positioning in vaccine production capabilities.
- Future Outlook: The company maintains full-year revenue guidance of $720 million to $760 million and expects Q2 revenue between $170 million and $185 million, reflecting management's confidence in future performance despite pricing pressures.
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- Vaccine Indication Expansion: Emergent BioSolutions announced that its ACAM2000 vaccine has received approval from Singapore's Health Sciences Authority to expand its indication for the prevention of mpox disease in high-risk adults, showcasing the company's proactive role in public health.
- Clinical Data Support: The approval is backed by existing human safety data and a well-controlled animal study demonstrating ACAM2000's effectiveness in protecting against mpox virus exposure, which enhances market confidence in the vaccine.
- Vaccination Administration: ACAM2000 is a single-dose vaccine administered through a bifurcated needle that pricks the skin multiple times in the upper arm, ensuring effective inoculation while simplifying the vaccination process and improving accessibility.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the approval from Singapore's HSA, Emergent BioSolutions' stock rose by 1.94% in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, reaching $8.15 per share, reflecting market optimism regarding the vaccine's prospects.
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- Earnings Announcement: Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on April 30 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at -$0.38 and revenue forecast at $145 million, reflecting a 34.7% year-over-year decline.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, EBS has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a mixed financial performance trend that may affect investor sentiment.
- Manufacturing Deal: EBS has signed a multi-year manufacturing agreement with SAB Biotherapeutics valued at approximately $50 million, aimed at enhancing its production capabilities and expanding market presence.
- Vaccine Production Agreement: The company also secured a $34.5 million vaccine manufacturing and distribution deal, further solidifying its position in the biopharmaceutical sector.
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- Contract Value: Emergent BioSolutions has entered a multi-year agreement valued at approximately $50 million with SAB Biotherapeutics, with $36 million contingent on regulatory approval and milestone achievements, indicating strong confidence in the drug development process.
- Support Services: The agreement entails Emergent providing process development, scale-up, technology transfer, and manufacturing services to support the clinical program of SAB-142, enhancing its competitive edge in the market.
- Commercial Manufacturing Potential: Should SAB-142 receive approval, Emergent will also handle its commercial manufacturing, which not only opens a potential revenue stream for the company but also further solidifies its position in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, Emergent's stock rose 2.19% in premarket trading to $8.41, reflecting positive investor sentiment towards the collaboration.
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- Significant Agreement Value: Emergent BioSolutions has signed a multi-year agreement with SAB Biotherapeutics valued at approximately $50 million, with $36 million contingent on future regulatory approvals and milestones, indicating strong confidence in the project's success.
- Enhanced Manufacturing Capabilities: Under the agreement, Emergent will provide end-to-end development and manufacturing services compliant with current good manufacturing practices at its Winnipeg facility, ensuring smooth progress for SAB-142's clinical program and future commercial production.
- Technology Transfer and Scale-Up: The agreement includes services for process development and analytical method transfer, which will accelerate the clinical progression of SAB-142, potentially offering new treatment options for diabetes patients and holding significant market potential.
- Strategic Partnership: This collaboration not only showcases Emergent's expertise in the biopharmaceutical sector but also reflects SAB BIO's commitment to developing innovative therapies for autoimmune diabetes, with their partnership poised to advance the commercialization of new therapies.
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- Vaccine Production Agreement: Emergent BioSolutions has entered into a $34.5 million agreement with Substipharm Biologics, focusing on drug substance production for the IMOJEV Japanese Encephalitis vaccine, marking a strategic expansion in the vaccine sector.
- Exclusive Distribution Rights: Under the agreement, Emergent will serve as the exclusive distributor to the U.S. government pending FDA approval, ensuring its critical role and market access in public health.
- Production Capacity Increase: This agreement will drive Emergent to scale up production at its Canton, Massachusetts facility and plans to hire additional staff to meet the growing vaccine demand.
- Regulatory Support: The collaboration will support Emergent's regulatory submission efforts for U.S. vaccine approval, further solidifying its position in the biopharmaceutical industry and driving future growth.
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