Should You Buy Emergent BioSolutions Inc (EBS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
11.900
1 Day change
1.62%
52 Week Range
14.060
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
EBS is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient and wants a clear entry today. Price action is weakening, insiders are actively selling, and the latest quarter showed sharp YoY declines in revenue and earnings. With no fresh positive news catalysts and earnings still ahead (2026-02-25), the risk/reward is unattractive at the current ~$11.4–$11.7 area; avoid/exit rather than start a new long-term position now.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum is bearish-to-neutral and deteriorating. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0755) and expanding lower, signaling increasing downside momentum. RSI(6) at ~43.9 is neutral but leaning weak (not oversold). Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a larger move; with negative MACD and a -4.17% regular-session drop, bias favors downside/weak consolidation. Key levels: Pivot 11.625 is now a near-term decision point; failure to reclaim it keeps pressure on. Support: S1 10.869 then S2 10.402. Resistance: R1 12.382 then R2 12.849. Given the current post-market price (~11.4) is below the pivot, technicals do not support an urgent long entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed. Open interest put/call ratio at 0.23 is call-heavy (structurally bullish/less hedging), but the *volume* put/call ratio at 2.13 shows today’s flow skewed bearish (more put trading). Implied volatility is elevated in absolute terms (~65% 30D) but extremely low vs its own history (IV percentile 9.2; IV rank 3), suggesting options are relatively “cheap” compared with the stock’s past volatility—often consistent with reduced fear *priced in*, but it doesn’t negate the bearish volume tilt. Overall: sentiment today leans cautious/bearish despite call-heavy open interest.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (62.74%, +7.67% YoY), which could support a turnaround narrative if sustained.
2) Low IV rank/percentile may make longer-dated call strategies more efficient if a bullish catalyst appears.
3) Next earnings date (2026-02-25 after hours) is a defined potential catalyst if results/forward commentary improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Clear fundamental deterioration in the latest quarter: revenue and earnings down sharply YoY.
2) Insiders are selling, with selling activity up ~207.6% over the last month—negative signal for near-term confidence.
3) No supportive news flow in the last week; lack of positive catalysts while technical momentum weak.
4) Price action: large regular-session drop (-4.17%) and post-market weakness (-2.65%) reinforces negative momentum.
5) Options flow today is put-skewed (volume put/call 2.13), aligning with near-term caution.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $231.1M (-21.34% YoY). Net income fell to $51.2M (-55.40% YoY). EPS fell to $0.91 (-55.83% YoY). The main bright spot was gross margin rising to 62.74% (+7.67% YoY), but overall growth trends (top-line and earnings) are decisively negative, which is not ideal for a beginner long-term buy today.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
The provided analyst updates reference 'Erste Group Bank' (EUR targets) and do not match Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), so no reliable recent EBS-specific rating/price-target trend can be concluded from the data given. With that limitation, the practical Wall Street-style balance of views from the available signals is: Pros—improving gross margin and potential event catalyst at upcoming earnings; Cons—sharp YoY revenue/EPS declines and heavy insider selling, which typically outweigh margin improvements for a long-term entry decision.
Wall Street analysts forecast EBS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EBS is 15 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EBS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EBS is 15 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 11.710
Low
15
Averages
15
High
15
Current: 11.710
Low
15
Averages
15
High
15
JPMorgan
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
AI Analysis
2025-12-02
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-02
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Erste Group Bank to EUR 107 from EUR 102 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
Barclays
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
€106
2025-12-02
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
€106
2025-12-02
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays upgraded Erste Group Bank to Overweight from Equal Weight with a EUR 106 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EBS
