Microsoft Shares Drop Following Analyst Downgrade
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: Fool
- Stock Price Decline: Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell nearly 5% on Thursday, closing at $393.58 with a market cap of $3.1 trillion, reflecting heightened negative sentiment towards software stocks.
- Analyst Rating Change: Stifel's analyst Brad Reback downgraded Microsoft's rating from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and significantly reduced the price target from $540 to $392, indicating a bearish outlook on the company's future financial performance.
- Increased Capex Forecast: Reback raised his forecast for Microsoft's capital expenditures to $200 billion for fiscal 2027, well above the $160 billion average expected by analysts, which could pressure the company's profitability.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The sell-off of Microsoft is largely driven by panic and herd behavior, yet despite short-term challenges, the company maintains diverse revenue streams, suggesting a positive long-term growth outlook.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MSFT?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Microsoft's Copilot User Growth and Market Potential
- User Growth Data: Microsoft revealed that Copilot reached 15 million paying users in its latest earnings call, reflecting a 160% year-over-year growth, although this figure appears small compared to its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, indicating potential market demand.
- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
See More
Microsoft Faces Intensifying Competition in Cloud Computing
- Cloud Competition: Microsoft faces fierce competition in the cloud computing sector from Amazon and Alphabet, with Azure's revenue growth of 39% lagging behind Google Cloud's 48%, indicating market share pressures.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
See More
Anthropic Leads AI Revolution, Software Industry Faces Challenges
- AI Disrupts Traditional Software: The rise of Anthropic poses significant challenges to traditional software companies like Workday and Salesforce, particularly in the application of AI technology, threatening their market share and customer loyalty.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Tech giants like Amazon and Google have significantly raised their capital expenditure outlooks, with Amazon projecting spending to reach $200 billion, far exceeding the $147 billion consensus, which could impact stock performance and investor confidence.
- Intensified Market Competition: The rapid advancement of AI technology raises questions about the value of enterprise software, leading investors to adopt a pessimistic view on the future of traditional software companies, especially in labor-intensive areas that may face workforce reductions due to AI adoption.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite significant advancements by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI space, market confidence in traditional software companies is waning, resulting in poor stock performance over the past six months and raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
Microsoft Reveals Copilot Paying Customer Count
- Paying User Growth: Microsoft disclosed for the first time that it has 15 million paying Copilot customers, which, despite a 160% year-over-year increase, represents only a 3.3% conversion rate from its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, potentially dampening investor confidence.
- Revenue Potential Analysis: Should Copilot users grow at the same 160% rate over the next year, this could translate into an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, equivalent to nearly 3% of Microsoft's projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting the business's significant potential.
- Market Competition Landscape: Although Copilot's user growth is slow, Microsoft's diversified investments in AI, including stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic, may support its future AI offerings and enhance its competitive position in the market.
- AI Tool Adoption: The adoption of AI tools is still in its early stages, and users may not yet be ready to fully integrate the functionalities offered by Copilot, necessitating Microsoft to continue optimizing its products to maintain competitiveness in the office software market and ensure ongoing growth in its 365 subscriber base.
See More
AI Concerns Trigger Market Turmoil
- Market Volatility Intensifies: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell over 1% last week due to AI concerns, with sell-offs in Financial Services, Consumer Discretionary, and tech stocks indicating the potential impact of AI across multiple industries.
- Logistics Sector Hit: Shares of C.H. Robinson and Universal Logistics dropped 11% and 9%, respectively, after a Florida-based company announced a new tool to scale freight volumes without increasing headcount, highlighting AI's threat to traditional logistics models.
- Wealth Management Turmoil: Charles Schwab and Raymond James saw their stocks decline by 10% and 8%, respectively, as the launch of an AI-driven tax tool raised fears about pressure on high advisory fees, further fueling market concerns over automation.
- Investor Sentiment Cautious: Despite the sell-off, analysts believe the current pullback is a short-term phenomenon, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 by year-end, reflecting optimism towards other sectors amidst the volatility.
See More
Analyzing the Reasons Behind Microsoft's Stock Decline
- AI Revolution Catalyst: Microsoft, having invested billions in OpenAI three years ago to kickstart the AI revolution, has seen its stock drop 16% recently, indicating investor concerns about future growth.
- Cloud Service Competitive Pressure: While Azure's revenue grew 39% year-over-year in Q4, it lags behind AWS's 24% and Google Cloud's 48%, potentially undermining investor confidence in Azure's growth trajectory.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: Microsoft's CFO noted that investors are uneasy about the correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, suggesting skepticism about the return on investment from the company's AI infrastructure investments.
- Attractive Valuation: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, near its lowest in three years, and a consensus price target of $596 implying 48% upside, the market shows confidence in Microsoft's AI roadmap despite execution risks in infrastructure development.
See More
Microsoft's Copilot User Growth and Market Potential
- User Growth Data: Microsoft revealed that Copilot reached 15 million paying users in its latest earnings call, reflecting a 160% year-over-year growth, although this figure appears small compared to its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, indicating potential market demand.
- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
See More
Microsoft Faces Intensifying Competition in Cloud Computing
- Cloud Competition: Microsoft faces fierce competition in the cloud computing sector from Amazon and Alphabet, with Azure's revenue growth of 39% lagging behind Google Cloud's 48%, indicating market share pressures.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
See More
Anthropic Leads AI Revolution, Software Industry Faces Challenges
- AI Disrupts Traditional Software: The rise of Anthropic poses significant challenges to traditional software companies like Workday and Salesforce, particularly in the application of AI technology, threatening their market share and customer loyalty.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Tech giants like Amazon and Google have significantly raised their capital expenditure outlooks, with Amazon projecting spending to reach $200 billion, far exceeding the $147 billion consensus, which could impact stock performance and investor confidence.
- Intensified Market Competition: The rapid advancement of AI technology raises questions about the value of enterprise software, leading investors to adopt a pessimistic view on the future of traditional software companies, especially in labor-intensive areas that may face workforce reductions due to AI adoption.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Despite significant advancements by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI space, market confidence in traditional software companies is waning, resulting in poor stock performance over the past six months and raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
Microsoft Reveals Copilot Paying Customer Count
- Paying User Growth: Microsoft disclosed for the first time that it has 15 million paying Copilot customers, which, despite a 160% year-over-year increase, represents only a 3.3% conversion rate from its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, potentially dampening investor confidence.
- Revenue Potential Analysis: Should Copilot users grow at the same 160% rate over the next year, this could translate into an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, equivalent to nearly 3% of Microsoft's projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting the business's significant potential.
- Market Competition Landscape: Although Copilot's user growth is slow, Microsoft's diversified investments in AI, including stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic, may support its future AI offerings and enhance its competitive position in the market.
- AI Tool Adoption: The adoption of AI tools is still in its early stages, and users may not yet be ready to fully integrate the functionalities offered by Copilot, necessitating Microsoft to continue optimizing its products to maintain competitiveness in the office software market and ensure ongoing growth in its 365 subscriber base.
See More
AI Concerns Trigger Market Turmoil
- Market Volatility Intensifies: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell over 1% last week due to AI concerns, with sell-offs in Financial Services, Consumer Discretionary, and tech stocks indicating the potential impact of AI across multiple industries.
- Logistics Sector Hit: Shares of C.H. Robinson and Universal Logistics dropped 11% and 9%, respectively, after a Florida-based company announced a new tool to scale freight volumes without increasing headcount, highlighting AI's threat to traditional logistics models.
- Wealth Management Turmoil: Charles Schwab and Raymond James saw their stocks decline by 10% and 8%, respectively, as the launch of an AI-driven tax tool raised fears about pressure on high advisory fees, further fueling market concerns over automation.
- Investor Sentiment Cautious: Despite the sell-off, analysts believe the current pullback is a short-term phenomenon, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 by year-end, reflecting optimism towards other sectors amidst the volatility.
See More
Analyzing the Reasons Behind Microsoft's Stock Decline
- AI Revolution Catalyst: Microsoft, having invested billions in OpenAI three years ago to kickstart the AI revolution, has seen its stock drop 16% recently, indicating investor concerns about future growth.
- Cloud Service Competitive Pressure: While Azure's revenue grew 39% year-over-year in Q4, it lags behind AWS's 24% and Google Cloud's 48%, potentially undermining investor confidence in Azure's growth trajectory.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: Microsoft's CFO noted that investors are uneasy about the correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, suggesting skepticism about the return on investment from the company's AI infrastructure investments.
- Attractive Valuation: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, near its lowest in three years, and a consensus price target of $596 implying 48% upside, the market shows confidence in Microsoft's AI roadmap despite execution risks in infrastructure development.
See More
