LyondellBasell Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on January 30
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy LYB?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Expectations: LyondellBasell is set to announce its Q4 earnings on January 30, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.25, reflecting a 66.7% year-over-year decline, and revenue estimate at $6.82 billion, down 28.2% year-over-year, indicating significant profitability challenges ahead.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, LyondellBasell has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, although recent downward trends may impact future performance.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and twelve downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced three upward revisions and nine downward revisions, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding the company's future performance.
- Bond Offering: LyondellBasell recently priced a $1.5 billion public offering of guaranteed notes, which, despite the profitability pressures, may provide the necessary liquidity to navigate market challenges.
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Analyst Views on LYB
Wall Street analysts forecast LYB stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
11 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 57.780
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
Current: 57.780
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
About LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is a global, independent chemical company creating solutions for everyday sustainable living. The Company's segments include Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas), Olefins and Polyolefins-Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI), Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D), Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS), and Technology. The O&P-Americas and O&P-EAI segments produces and markets olefins and co-products, polyethylene, and polypropylene. The I&D segment produces and markets propylene oxide (PO) and its derivatives, oxyfuels and related products, and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer (SM), and acetyls. The APS segment produces and markets compounding and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders. The Technology segment develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Is LyondellBasell's Almost 10% Dividend Secure or a Red Flag for Investors?
High Dividend Yield: Lyondel's stock offers a high dividend yield of approximately 9.5%, which may attract investors, but such yields can indicate underlying business struggles, as the company's stock price has fallen significantly over the past three years.
Risks of Dividend Sustainability: The company's ability to maintain its dividend payments is under pressure due to weak cash generation and high debt levels, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend policy.
Market Conditions: Lyondel is currently facing challenging market conditions, including oversupply and declining margins, which could impact its future profitability and dividend payments.
Future Outlook: While there are expectations for modest improvements in the company's performance, analysts remain cautious, and the potential for a dividend cut is a significant concern for investors.
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- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
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- Stock Price Plunge: Both Dow and LyondellBasell saw their stock prices plummet by 41.7% in 2025, reaching multiyear lows, reflecting intensified competition and weak demand that have undermined investor confidence.
- Cost-Cutting Measures: Dow plans to achieve $500 million in cost savings by the second half of 2025 and is cutting approximately 4,500 jobs, which will incur one-time severance costs of $600 million to $800 million, aimed at improving its financial health amid ongoing market downturns.
- Cash Flow Improvements: LyondellBasell anticipates $600 million in cash flow improvements in 2025, and while it has not cut its dividend, it is enhancing cash flow through asset sales and project pauses, demonstrating resilience in challenging conditions.
- Future Outlook: Although analysts expect Dow to remain negative in earnings for 2026, LyondellBasell is projected to build on its 2025 profitability, with even better performance anticipated in 2027, indicating potential for industry recovery.
See More
LyondellBasell Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Exceptional Safety Performance: LyondellBasell achieved its safest year in 2025 with a record-low incident rate despite significant maintenance activities, demonstrating the company's operational capability and commitment to employee safety in challenging market conditions.
- Value Enhancement Program Progress: The company reported $1.1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA for 2025, with a target of $1.5 billion by 2028, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, particularly through cost advantages in the Middle East.
- Strong Cash Flow Management: The CFO noted that LyondellBasell generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations in 2025, maintaining a cash conversion ratio of 95%, and exceeded its cash conservation goal by $200 million, showcasing robust financial flexibility and resilience against market fluctuations.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Management anticipates an additional $500 million cash improvement in 2026 and plans to limit capital expenditures to $1.2 billion, emphasizing a focus on immediately profitable projects to ensure long-term value creation amid ongoing market downturns.
See More
LyondellBasell Reports Q4 2025 Results Exceeding Revenue Expectations
- Revenue Exceeds Expectations: LyondellBasell reported fourth-quarter sales and other operating revenues of $7.091 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.799 billion, although this represents a decline from $7.808 billion a year earlier, indicating resilience amid market challenges.
- Adjusted EPS Decline: The company posted an adjusted diluted loss per share of $(0.26), falling short of the $0.13 analyst estimate, reflecting pressure on profits from higher NGL feedstock and natural gas costs, which impacted investor confidence.
- Significant Yearly Decline: For the full year 2025, LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $738 million, or $(2.34) per diluted share, a stark contrast to the net income of $1.367 billion in 2024, highlighting the substantial impact of global trade disruptions and falling oil prices on performance.
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See More
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- Financial Overview: LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $140 million in Q4, translating to a loss of $0.45 per share, which is an improvement from last year's $603 million loss or $1.87 per share, indicating resilience amid challenging conditions.
- Adjusted Earnings Situation: Excluding identified items, the company posted a loss of $0.26 per share compared to a profit of $0.77 per share last year, reflecting ongoing pressures from cost management and market challenges.
- Cash Improvement Plan Success: Despite a tough market environment, LyondellBasell's Cash Improvement Plan achieved $800 million in cash flow for 2025, exceeding the $600 million target, and aims to raise the cumulative target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, showcasing positive financial management progress.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to invest $1.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on maintaining safe and reliable operations while continuing the construction of MoReTec-1, aimed at enhancing long-term operational capacity and market competitiveness.
See More
Is LyondellBasell's Almost 10% Dividend Secure or a Red Flag for Investors?
High Dividend Yield: Lyondel's stock offers a high dividend yield of approximately 9.5%, which may attract investors, but such yields can indicate underlying business struggles, as the company's stock price has fallen significantly over the past three years.
Risks of Dividend Sustainability: The company's ability to maintain its dividend payments is under pressure due to weak cash generation and high debt levels, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend policy.
Market Conditions: Lyondel is currently facing challenging market conditions, including oversupply and declining margins, which could impact its future profitability and dividend payments.
Future Outlook: While there are expectations for modest improvements in the company's performance, analysts remain cautious, and the potential for a dividend cut is a significant concern for investors.
See More
AI-Exposed Stocks Face Challenges Amid Market Shift
- Market Sentiment Shift: As fears grow that artificial intelligence could disrupt demand rather than enhance it, software and AI-exposed stocks have faced significant sell-offs at the start of 2023, particularly in February, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
See More
Chemical Giants Dow and LyondellBasell Face Major Setbacks in 2025
- Stock Price Plunge: Both Dow and LyondellBasell saw their stock prices plummet by 41.7% in 2025, reaching multiyear lows, reflecting intensified competition and weak demand that have undermined investor confidence.
- Cost-Cutting Measures: Dow plans to achieve $500 million in cost savings by the second half of 2025 and is cutting approximately 4,500 jobs, which will incur one-time severance costs of $600 million to $800 million, aimed at improving its financial health amid ongoing market downturns.
- Cash Flow Improvements: LyondellBasell anticipates $600 million in cash flow improvements in 2025, and while it has not cut its dividend, it is enhancing cash flow through asset sales and project pauses, demonstrating resilience in challenging conditions.
- Future Outlook: Although analysts expect Dow to remain negative in earnings for 2026, LyondellBasell is projected to build on its 2025 profitability, with even better performance anticipated in 2027, indicating potential for industry recovery.
See More
LyondellBasell Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Exceptional Safety Performance: LyondellBasell achieved its safest year in 2025 with a record-low incident rate despite significant maintenance activities, demonstrating the company's operational capability and commitment to employee safety in challenging market conditions.
- Value Enhancement Program Progress: The company reported $1.1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA for 2025, with a target of $1.5 billion by 2028, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, particularly through cost advantages in the Middle East.
- Strong Cash Flow Management: The CFO noted that LyondellBasell generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations in 2025, maintaining a cash conversion ratio of 95%, and exceeded its cash conservation goal by $200 million, showcasing robust financial flexibility and resilience against market fluctuations.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Management anticipates an additional $500 million cash improvement in 2026 and plans to limit capital expenditures to $1.2 billion, emphasizing a focus on immediately profitable projects to ensure long-term value creation amid ongoing market downturns.
See More
LyondellBasell Reports Q4 2025 Results Exceeding Revenue Expectations
- Revenue Exceeds Expectations: LyondellBasell reported fourth-quarter sales and other operating revenues of $7.091 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.799 billion, although this represents a decline from $7.808 billion a year earlier, indicating resilience amid market challenges.
- Adjusted EPS Decline: The company posted an adjusted diluted loss per share of $(0.26), falling short of the $0.13 analyst estimate, reflecting pressure on profits from higher NGL feedstock and natural gas costs, which impacted investor confidence.
- Significant Yearly Decline: For the full year 2025, LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $738 million, or $(2.34) per diluted share, a stark contrast to the net income of $1.367 billion in 2024, highlighting the substantial impact of global trade disruptions and falling oil prices on performance.
- Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: In 2025, LyondellBasell generated $2.262 billion in net cash from operating activities with a 95% cash conversion rate, while returning $1.965 billion to shareholders, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities even in adverse conditions.
See More
LyondellBasell Reports $140 Million Net Loss in Q4
- Financial Overview: LyondellBasell reported a net loss of $140 million in Q4, translating to a loss of $0.45 per share, which is an improvement from last year's $603 million loss or $1.87 per share, indicating resilience amid challenging conditions.
- Adjusted Earnings Situation: Excluding identified items, the company posted a loss of $0.26 per share compared to a profit of $0.77 per share last year, reflecting ongoing pressures from cost management and market challenges.
- Cash Improvement Plan Success: Despite a tough market environment, LyondellBasell's Cash Improvement Plan achieved $800 million in cash flow for 2025, exceeding the $600 million target, and aims to raise the cumulative target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, showcasing positive financial management progress.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to invest $1.2 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on maintaining safe and reliable operations while continuing the construction of MoReTec-1, aimed at enhancing long-term operational capacity and market competitiveness.
See More
