Key Market Watch for May 12: CPI and Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 11 2026
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Inflation Data Release: April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to cool to 0.6%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to tick up slightly, indicating potential easing of inflation pressures but necessitating close monitoring of core metrics' impact on the market.
- On Holding Earnings Preview: On Holding is set to announce its Q1 results on Tuesday, with analysts expecting strong underlying demand to be offset by foreign exchange headwinds, which could negatively impact performance, prompting investors to pay attention to the company's strategic responses.
- Under Armour Earnings Outlook: Under Armour will also report quarterly results, with analysts predicting another sales decline as the company navigates its turnaround efforts, leading investors to closely monitor North American demand and the effectiveness of new product launches.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Fresh commentary from several Fed presidents is expected on Tuesday, as markets seek clues regarding interest rate trajectories, coinciding with the Senate's vote on Kevin Warsh for Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term ending on May 15.
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Analyst Views on UA
About UA
Under Armour, Inc. is an inventor, marketer and distributor of branded athletic performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. Its primary business operates in four geographic segments: North America, comprising the United States and Canada, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Its apparel comes in three primary fit types: compression (tight fit), fitted (athletic fit) and loose (relaxed fit). Its footwear includes products for running, training, basketball, cleated sports, recovery and outdoor applications, as well as casual use. Its accessories primarily include athletic performance gloves, bags, headwear and socks. It sells its apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. It sells its apparel, footwear and accessories in EMEA primarily through wholesale customers and independent distributors, along with e-commerce Websites and brand and factory house stores.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Under Armour Reports Improved Q4 Net Loss Amid $496M Annual Loss
- Q4 Financial Performance: Under Armour recorded a net loss of $43 million in Q4 FY26, improving from a $67 million loss in the same quarter last year, indicating initial success in the company's restructuring efforts.
- Revenue Change Analysis: Q4 revenue declined 1% year-on-year to $1.2 billion, with North America revenue falling 7% to $641 million, while international revenue rose 10% to $539 million, highlighting the growing potential in international markets.
- Cost and Expense Control: Despite a gross margin decline of 470 basis points to 42.0%, selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by 15% to $518 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to control costs aimed at improving overall financial health.
- Future Outlook and Strategy: Under Armour anticipates a slight revenue decline in FY27, with low single-digit decreases in North America partially offset by low single-digit growth in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, reflecting the company's strategic adjustments and adaptability in global markets.
See More
Under Armour Q4 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Decline: Under Armour reported a 4% decline in Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue to $5 billion, primarily due to a 3% drop in wholesale revenue, despite a 5% increase in direct-to-consumer sales, reflecting consumer uncertainty and market pressures.
- Margin Pressure: The gross margin for Q4 decreased by 470 basis points year-over-year to 42%, with adjusted gross margin down 360 basis points to 43.1%, indicating significant external cost impacts, particularly from U.S. tariffs contributing 260 basis points of pressure.
- Future Outlook: Management anticipates a slight revenue decline in fiscal 2027, primarily due to the exit of the Curry brand, although gross margin is expected to expand by 220 to 270 basis points, reflecting strategic adjustments in product focus and brand value enhancement.
- Restructuring Plan: Under Armour is implementing a restructuring plan with an estimated total cost of approximately $305 million, expected to be substantially complete by December 31, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency through SKU reduction and a focus on premium products, despite ongoing market challenges.
See More
Under Armour Reports Weak Q4 Performance Amid Sales Decline
- Sales Decline: Under Armour reported a 7% drop in North American sales during Q4, despite a 10% increase in international markets, leading to an overall revenue decline of 1% to $1.2 billion, highlighting market pressures amid fierce competition.
- Margin Erosion: The company's gross margin suffered a 470-basis-point hit, falling to 42% from 46.7% last year due to rising tariffs and product costs, directly impacting profitability and raising concerns among investors.
- Pessimistic Outlook: For fiscal 2027, Under Armour anticipates a slight decline in sales, with diluted loss per share expected to range from breakeven to $0.04, significantly lower than the $1.14 estimate, indicating a challenging road ahead.
- Negative Market Reaction: Following the disappointing earnings report, Under Armour's Class A shares plummeted over 15% in premarket trading, poised to open at a five-month low, reflecting investor anxiety regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Under Armour Issues Cautious Guidance, Shares Plunge
- Revenue Decline: Under Armour's revenue fell 1% to $1.2 billion in the quarter, with North America revenue down 7% to $641 million, while international revenue increased 10% to $539 million, indicating a mixed performance across global markets.
- Gross Margin Pressure: The gross margin declined by 470 basis points to 42.0%, primarily due to rising tariffs and increased product costs, although foreign exchange gains and favorable channel mix provided some relief, highlighting the challenges in cost management.
- Inventory Position: Under Armour's inventory decreased by 3% to $915 million, suggesting some progress in inventory management, yet future sales performance remains a critical area of focus.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates a slight year-over-year revenue decline, with low single-digit decreases in North America offset by low single-digit growth in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, while its earnings per share forecast is significantly below consensus, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
ONON Shares Surge After Record Sales Drive Profitability
- Significant Sales Growth: On Holding (ONON) shares surged over 5% pre-market, driven by a remarkable 44.4% revenue growth in the APAC region, achieving record net sales and profitability, which enhances its full-year profit outlook and validates its premium brand strategy.
- Profitability Enhancement: Co-CEO Casper Coppetti emphasized that Q1 performance serves as strong evidence of their premium strategy's success, with projections indicating a gross profit margin of 64.5% by year-end, further solidifying the company's market position.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite facing significant headwinds from spending and tariffs, TMF CIO Andy Cross noted that On Holding continues to demonstrate strong long-term performance, reflecting investor confidence in its business model and optimistic outlook for future growth.
- Favorable Industry Trends: As AI workloads shift towards inference, the CPU market is entering a growth 'super cycle,' presenting new opportunities for chipmakers like AMD and Intel, which are expected to be near-term winners, further driving stock price increases.
See More
Under Armour Reports Q4 2026 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Performance: Under Armour's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.03 misses expectations by $0.01, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Breakdown: Total revenue stands at $1.17 billion, down 0.8% year-over-year, with North America revenue declining 7% to $641 million, while international revenue increased by 10% to $539 million, highlighting potential growth in international markets.
- Category Performance: Apparel and footwear revenues remained flat at $778 million and $282 million, respectively, while accessories grew by 2% to $94 million, demonstrating resilience in the accessories category that could provide opportunities for future product line expansion.
- Fiscal 2027 Outlook: Revenue is expected to decline slightly in FY 2027, with gross margin projected to increase by 220 to 270 basis points, and operating income anticipated between $96 million and $116 million, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook during the company's transformation process.
See More
Under Armour Reports Improved Q4 Net Loss Amid $496M Annual Loss
- Q4 Financial Performance: Under Armour recorded a net loss of $43 million in Q4 FY26, improving from a $67 million loss in the same quarter last year, indicating initial success in the company's restructuring efforts.
- Revenue Change Analysis: Q4 revenue declined 1% year-on-year to $1.2 billion, with North America revenue falling 7% to $641 million, while international revenue rose 10% to $539 million, highlighting the growing potential in international markets.
- Cost and Expense Control: Despite a gross margin decline of 470 basis points to 42.0%, selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by 15% to $518 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to control costs aimed at improving overall financial health.
- Future Outlook and Strategy: Under Armour anticipates a slight revenue decline in FY27, with low single-digit decreases in North America partially offset by low single-digit growth in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, reflecting the company's strategic adjustments and adaptability in global markets.
See More
Under Armour Q4 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Decline: Under Armour reported a 4% decline in Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue to $5 billion, primarily due to a 3% drop in wholesale revenue, despite a 5% increase in direct-to-consumer sales, reflecting consumer uncertainty and market pressures.
- Margin Pressure: The gross margin for Q4 decreased by 470 basis points year-over-year to 42%, with adjusted gross margin down 360 basis points to 43.1%, indicating significant external cost impacts, particularly from U.S. tariffs contributing 260 basis points of pressure.
- Future Outlook: Management anticipates a slight revenue decline in fiscal 2027, primarily due to the exit of the Curry brand, although gross margin is expected to expand by 220 to 270 basis points, reflecting strategic adjustments in product focus and brand value enhancement.
- Restructuring Plan: Under Armour is implementing a restructuring plan with an estimated total cost of approximately $305 million, expected to be substantially complete by December 31, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency through SKU reduction and a focus on premium products, despite ongoing market challenges.
See More
Under Armour Reports Weak Q4 Performance Amid Sales Decline
- Sales Decline: Under Armour reported a 7% drop in North American sales during Q4, despite a 10% increase in international markets, leading to an overall revenue decline of 1% to $1.2 billion, highlighting market pressures amid fierce competition.
- Margin Erosion: The company's gross margin suffered a 470-basis-point hit, falling to 42% from 46.7% last year due to rising tariffs and product costs, directly impacting profitability and raising concerns among investors.
- Pessimistic Outlook: For fiscal 2027, Under Armour anticipates a slight decline in sales, with diluted loss per share expected to range from breakeven to $0.04, significantly lower than the $1.14 estimate, indicating a challenging road ahead.
- Negative Market Reaction: Following the disappointing earnings report, Under Armour's Class A shares plummeted over 15% in premarket trading, poised to open at a five-month low, reflecting investor anxiety regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Under Armour Issues Cautious Guidance, Shares Plunge
- Revenue Decline: Under Armour's revenue fell 1% to $1.2 billion in the quarter, with North America revenue down 7% to $641 million, while international revenue increased 10% to $539 million, indicating a mixed performance across global markets.
- Gross Margin Pressure: The gross margin declined by 470 basis points to 42.0%, primarily due to rising tariffs and increased product costs, although foreign exchange gains and favorable channel mix provided some relief, highlighting the challenges in cost management.
- Inventory Position: Under Armour's inventory decreased by 3% to $915 million, suggesting some progress in inventory management, yet future sales performance remains a critical area of focus.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates a slight year-over-year revenue decline, with low single-digit decreases in North America offset by low single-digit growth in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, while its earnings per share forecast is significantly below consensus, reflecting ongoing uncertainties ahead.
See More
ONON Shares Surge After Record Sales Drive Profitability
- Significant Sales Growth: On Holding (ONON) shares surged over 5% pre-market, driven by a remarkable 44.4% revenue growth in the APAC region, achieving record net sales and profitability, which enhances its full-year profit outlook and validates its premium brand strategy.
- Profitability Enhancement: Co-CEO Casper Coppetti emphasized that Q1 performance serves as strong evidence of their premium strategy's success, with projections indicating a gross profit margin of 64.5% by year-end, further solidifying the company's market position.
- Positive Market Reaction: Despite facing significant headwinds from spending and tariffs, TMF CIO Andy Cross noted that On Holding continues to demonstrate strong long-term performance, reflecting investor confidence in its business model and optimistic outlook for future growth.
- Favorable Industry Trends: As AI workloads shift towards inference, the CPU market is entering a growth 'super cycle,' presenting new opportunities for chipmakers like AMD and Intel, which are expected to be near-term winners, further driving stock price increases.
See More
Under Armour Reports Q4 2026 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Performance: Under Armour's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.03 misses expectations by $0.01, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Breakdown: Total revenue stands at $1.17 billion, down 0.8% year-over-year, with North America revenue declining 7% to $641 million, while international revenue increased by 10% to $539 million, highlighting potential growth in international markets.
- Category Performance: Apparel and footwear revenues remained flat at $778 million and $282 million, respectively, while accessories grew by 2% to $94 million, demonstrating resilience in the accessories category that could provide opportunities for future product line expansion.
- Fiscal 2027 Outlook: Revenue is expected to decline slightly in FY 2027, with gross margin projected to increase by 220 to 270 basis points, and operating income anticipated between $96 million and $116 million, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook during the company's transformation process.
See More
