Kentucky Derby Absent from Prediction Markets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 01 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CHDN?
Source: CNBC
- Absence from Prediction Markets: Despite being the largest horse race in the U.S., the Kentucky Derby lacks event contracts on major prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a limited appeal of horse racing in prediction markets that could impact economic activities related to the event.
- Track Owners' Stance: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen stated that horse racing is unlikely to appear on prediction markets as track owners are not interested in making deals with these platforms, potentially limiting the market expansion opportunities for horse racing.
- Legal Restrictions: Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering wagers on horse races requires explicit permission from track owners and state racing commissions, placing the prediction market industry at a legal disadvantage and restricting its growth.
- Kentucky Legislative Actions: Kentucky lawmakers have proposed legislation to ban any gambling licensees from offering predictions and suggested a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees, which could further suppress the development of prediction markets in the state.
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Analyst Views on CHDN
Wall Street analysts forecast CHDN stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 88.850
Low
125.00
Averages
137.33
High
146.00
Current: 88.850
Low
125.00
Averages
137.33
High
146.00
About CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company, which is anchored by its flagship event, the Kentucky Derby. The Company operates through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia and New Hampshire. The Wagering Services and Solutions segment includes TwinSpires, which is a retail and online sports betting business; United Tote Company, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities (OTBs), and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses; and Exacta Systems, LLC that provides central determinant system technology in historical racing machine (HRMs) across the country. The Gaming segment is engaged in the casino properties and associated racetrack facilities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Susquehanna Reiterates Bullish Stance on Churchill Downs Following Kentucky Derby Success
- Kentucky Derby Performance: During Derby week, Churchill Downs achieved a record all-sources handle of $487 million, indicating significant future growth potential and reinforcing the company's leadership in the horse racing industry.
- Impact of Brand Acquisition: Analysts noted that Churchill Downs' acquisition of the Preakness brand provides greater leverage for expanding the 'Triple Crown' in international markets, especially given the decline in Preakness participation over the past five years due to safety concerns, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments.
- Positive Rating and Price Target: Susquehanna maintains a positive rating on Churchill Downs with a price target of $121, representing over 30% upside potential, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Stock Price Volatility Context: Despite a 19% year-to-date decline in Churchill Downs' stock price, analysts believe that strong event performance and brand expansion strategies will yield long-term returns for shareholders, boosting investor confidence.
See More
Churchill Downs Sets New Betting Records for Derby Week
- Record Total Handle: Churchill Downs reported that all-sources handle for Derby Week reached a new high of $487 million, reflecting a 3% increase from last year's record, indicating sustained interest in the event.
- Derby Day Wagering: Although wagering from all sources on Kentucky Derby Day was $340 million, slightly below last year's record of $349 million, it still demonstrates strong market demand and the event's consistent popularity.
- TwinSpires Handle Growth: TwinSpires recorded a handle of $129 million during Derby Week, up 6% from the previous record set in 2025, showcasing its growing competitiveness in the betting market.
- EBITDA Expectations Update: The company anticipates record-setting adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week, expected to be $15 million to $18 million higher than last year's figure, although slightly below the previous guidance range, indicating ongoing profitability improvements.
See More
Golden Tempo Wins the Kentucky Derby
- Historic Victory: Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby at 23-1 odds, marking the first time a female trainer, Cherie DeVaux, has led a Derby winner, highlighting the growing influence of women in the horse racing industry.
- Record Attendance: The event attracted over 150,000 fans, underscoring the enduring appeal and brand value of the Kentucky Derby, which solidifies its status as a premier event in American horse racing.
- Record Betting Volume: Total handle for Derby Week reached $487 million, an increase of $13 million from last year, indicating strong market enthusiasm for horse racing and signs of economic recovery, which is expected to drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Adjusted EBITDA Expectations: The company anticipates an Adjusted EBITDA growth of $15 to $18 million for Derby Week, reflecting the financial benefits of the event's success and enhancing investor confidence in the company's prospects.
See More
Kentucky Oaks Sets New Wagering Records Amid Spectacular Race
- Event Highlights: Always A Runner won the 152nd Kentucky Oaks in 1:48.82, captivating over 103,000 fans, which underscores the event's immense appeal and brand significance.
- Wagering Records: Total wagering reached $89 million, an 18% increase from 2024, with the Kentucky Oaks race alone generating over $29 million, marking an all-time high and reflecting the event's growing popularity.
- Partner Performance: TwinSpires, the official betting partner, recorded $24 million in wagers, up 24% from last year, further solidifying its leadership position in the horse racing betting market.
- Charitable Initiatives: Through the Oaks, CDI champions women's health initiatives, raising nearly $2 million for advocacy, demonstrating the company's commitment to social responsibility while enhancing its brand image.
See More
Kentucky Derby Absent from Prediction Markets
- Absence from Prediction Markets: Despite being the largest horse race in the U.S., the Kentucky Derby lacks event contracts on major prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a limited appeal of horse racing in prediction markets that could impact economic activities related to the event.
- Track Owners' Stance: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen stated that horse racing is unlikely to appear on prediction markets as track owners are not interested in making deals with these platforms, potentially limiting the market expansion opportunities for horse racing.
- Legal Restrictions: Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering wagers on horse races requires explicit permission from track owners and state racing commissions, placing the prediction market industry at a legal disadvantage and restricting its growth.
- Kentucky Legislative Actions: Kentucky lawmakers have proposed legislation to ban any gambling licensees from offering predictions and suggested a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees, which could further suppress the development of prediction markets in the state.
See More
Kentucky Derby and Prediction Market Tensions
- Market Restrictions: Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill Downs, stated that the Kentucky Derby will not appear on prediction platforms as track owners are unwilling to negotiate with them, thereby limiting the growth potential of prediction markets.
- Legal Barriers: Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering bets on horse racing requires explicit permission from track owners, horsemen's groups, and state racing commissions, creating legal obstacles for prediction markets in this sector.
- State Legislation: Kentucky lawmakers have proposed banning any of its gambling licensees from offering predictions and imposing a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees, further intensifying the tension between prediction markets and traditional horse racing betting.
- Betting Trends: Despite the restrictions on prediction markets, Churchill Downs has seen increased betting during Derby Week, and Caesars reported that the amount wagered on the Kentucky Derby is exceeding expectations, indicating that traditional betting remains popular.
See More
Susquehanna Reiterates Bullish Stance on Churchill Downs Following Kentucky Derby Success
- Kentucky Derby Performance: During Derby week, Churchill Downs achieved a record all-sources handle of $487 million, indicating significant future growth potential and reinforcing the company's leadership in the horse racing industry.
- Impact of Brand Acquisition: Analysts noted that Churchill Downs' acquisition of the Preakness brand provides greater leverage for expanding the 'Triple Crown' in international markets, especially given the decline in Preakness participation over the past five years due to safety concerns, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments.
- Positive Rating and Price Target: Susquehanna maintains a positive rating on Churchill Downs with a price target of $121, representing over 30% upside potential, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Stock Price Volatility Context: Despite a 19% year-to-date decline in Churchill Downs' stock price, analysts believe that strong event performance and brand expansion strategies will yield long-term returns for shareholders, boosting investor confidence.
See More
Churchill Downs Sets New Betting Records for Derby Week
- Record Total Handle: Churchill Downs reported that all-sources handle for Derby Week reached a new high of $487 million, reflecting a 3% increase from last year's record, indicating sustained interest in the event.
- Derby Day Wagering: Although wagering from all sources on Kentucky Derby Day was $340 million, slightly below last year's record of $349 million, it still demonstrates strong market demand and the event's consistent popularity.
- TwinSpires Handle Growth: TwinSpires recorded a handle of $129 million during Derby Week, up 6% from the previous record set in 2025, showcasing its growing competitiveness in the betting market.
- EBITDA Expectations Update: The company anticipates record-setting adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week, expected to be $15 million to $18 million higher than last year's figure, although slightly below the previous guidance range, indicating ongoing profitability improvements.
See More
Golden Tempo Wins the Kentucky Derby
- Historic Victory: Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby at 23-1 odds, marking the first time a female trainer, Cherie DeVaux, has led a Derby winner, highlighting the growing influence of women in the horse racing industry.
- Record Attendance: The event attracted over 150,000 fans, underscoring the enduring appeal and brand value of the Kentucky Derby, which solidifies its status as a premier event in American horse racing.
- Record Betting Volume: Total handle for Derby Week reached $487 million, an increase of $13 million from last year, indicating strong market enthusiasm for horse racing and signs of economic recovery, which is expected to drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Adjusted EBITDA Expectations: The company anticipates an Adjusted EBITDA growth of $15 to $18 million for Derby Week, reflecting the financial benefits of the event's success and enhancing investor confidence in the company's prospects.
See More
Kentucky Oaks Sets New Wagering Records Amid Spectacular Race
- Event Highlights: Always A Runner won the 152nd Kentucky Oaks in 1:48.82, captivating over 103,000 fans, which underscores the event's immense appeal and brand significance.
- Wagering Records: Total wagering reached $89 million, an 18% increase from 2024, with the Kentucky Oaks race alone generating over $29 million, marking an all-time high and reflecting the event's growing popularity.
- Partner Performance: TwinSpires, the official betting partner, recorded $24 million in wagers, up 24% from last year, further solidifying its leadership position in the horse racing betting market.
- Charitable Initiatives: Through the Oaks, CDI champions women's health initiatives, raising nearly $2 million for advocacy, demonstrating the company's commitment to social responsibility while enhancing its brand image.
See More
Kentucky Derby Absent from Prediction Markets
- Absence from Prediction Markets: Despite being the largest horse race in the U.S., the Kentucky Derby lacks event contracts on major prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, indicating a limited appeal of horse racing in prediction markets that could impact economic activities related to the event.
- Track Owners' Stance: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen stated that horse racing is unlikely to appear on prediction markets as track owners are not interested in making deals with these platforms, potentially limiting the market expansion opportunities for horse racing.
- Legal Restrictions: Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering wagers on horse races requires explicit permission from track owners and state racing commissions, placing the prediction market industry at a legal disadvantage and restricting its growth.
- Kentucky Legislative Actions: Kentucky lawmakers have proposed legislation to ban any gambling licensees from offering predictions and suggested a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees, which could further suppress the development of prediction markets in the state.
See More
Kentucky Derby and Prediction Market Tensions
- Market Restrictions: Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill Downs, stated that the Kentucky Derby will not appear on prediction platforms as track owners are unwilling to negotiate with them, thereby limiting the growth potential of prediction markets.
- Legal Barriers: Under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering bets on horse racing requires explicit permission from track owners, horsemen's groups, and state racing commissions, creating legal obstacles for prediction markets in this sector.
- State Legislation: Kentucky lawmakers have proposed banning any of its gambling licensees from offering predictions and imposing a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees, further intensifying the tension between prediction markets and traditional horse racing betting.
- Betting Trends: Despite the restrictions on prediction markets, Churchill Downs has seen increased betting during Derby Week, and Caesars reported that the amount wagered on the Kentucky Derby is exceeding expectations, indicating that traditional betting remains popular.
See More
