JPMorgan Downgrades Bloomin' Brands to Underweight
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 24 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BLMN?
JPMorgan downgraded Bloomin' Brands to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $6. The firm sees "more compelling" upside elsewhere in the sector. Years of elevated menu pricing versus peers and non-customer oriented costs have made the new CEO's job a "highly difficult one," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes reinstating value at Roadhouse will be challenging.
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Analyst Views on BLMN
Wall Street analysts forecast BLMN stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 8.120
Low
6.00
Averages
8.00
High
11.00
Current: 8.120
Low
6.00
Averages
8.00
High
11.00
About BLMN
Bloomin Brands, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant company. Its restaurant portfolio includes Outback Steakhouse, Carrabbas Italian Grill, BonefishGrill, and Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. The Company’s segment includes U.S. and International Franchise. Outback Steakhouse is a casual steakhouse restaurant concept focused on steaks, bold flavors and Australian decor. Carrabbas Italian Grill offers authentic Italian cuisine passed down from its founder's family recipes. Bonefish Grill specializes in fish from around the world, hand-cut in-house every day, savory wood-grilled specialties, and locally created seasonal partner selection dishes. Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar is a contemporary interpretation of the classic American steakhouse, with culinary mastery, signature style and attentive service to create dining experiences for guests. The Company owns and operates 967 restaurants and franchised 493 restaurants across 46 states, Guam and 12 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Restaurant Sales Slow as Gas Prices Rise
- Sales Slowdown: According to Black Box Intelligence, restaurant traffic fell 2.3% in March compared to the previous year, primarily due to rising gas prices, which have led consumers, especially low-income groups, to cut back on dining out.
- Applebee's Strategy: To attract budget-conscious diners, Applebee's is accelerating its rollout of an All-You-Can-Eat special for $15.99, aiming to boost traffic and enhance its competitive position in the market amid rising costs.
- Market Share Competition: Some restaurant CEOs see the rise in gas prices as an opportunity to capture market share from weaker competitors, with Chili's CEO noting an acceleration in their market share as overall restaurant spending declines.
- Diverse Fast-Food Performance: Despite the overall sales slowdown, McDonald's reported a 3.7% same-store sales growth in Q1, driven by increased spending from higher-income consumers, while Burger King achieved a 5.8% growth, highlighting significant performance disparities among brands.
See More
Insider at Bloomin' Brands (BLMN.US) Plans to Sell $30.86 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Offering Announcement: Insider Starboard Value LP plans to sell 3.8 million shares of its common stock on May 8.
Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $30.86 million.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported Q1 total revenues of $1.06 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase despite facing 4.6% commodity inflation and 3.1% labor inflation, showcasing the company's resilience in adversity.
- Brand Performance: Outback's comparable sales fell by 30 basis points with traffic down 240 basis points, while Carrabba’s and Bonefish saw increases of 130 and 610 basis points respectively, indicating significant performance disparities among brands that necessitate a stronger overall strategy.
- Service Model Innovation: The company launched a new service model in April, planning for each server to manage four tables during peak times, aimed at enhancing customer experience and improving service efficiency, which is expected to positively impact future performance.
- Future Outlook: Management expects Q2 U.S. comparable restaurant sales to grow between 1% and 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $0.27 and $0.32, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view on future growth.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Surpasses Q1 Earnings Expectations
- Sales Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported a 0.9% increase in comparable sales for Q1, driven by a 6.1% rise at Bonefish Grill and a 1.3% increase at Carrabba's Italian Grill, effectively offsetting a 0.3% decline at Outback Steakhouse, showcasing brand differentiation.
- Margin Improvement: The restaurant-level operating margin increased by 10 basis points year-over-year to 14.0%, primarily due to higher average checks, cost-saving measures, and productivity initiatives, although inflationary pressures on commodity, operating, and labor costs partially offset these gains.
- Earnings Beat: Operating income reached $59.1 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $56.7 million, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.67 exceeded expectations of $0.57, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability.
- Outlook Confirmation: Bloomin' Brands reaffirmed its full-year guidance for comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 2% and adjusted EPS between $0.27 and $0.32, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Q1 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Strong Earnings: Bloomin' Brands reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.67, beating expectations by $0.10, indicating sustained profitability improvements and boosting market confidence in future performance.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved $1.06 billion in revenue for the first quarter, a 1.0% year-over-year increase that exceeded market expectations by $20 million, primarily driven by higher comparable restaurant sales, reflecting stable consumer demand.
- Future Outlook: The company projects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 2% for Q2 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS expected to range from $0.27 to $0.32, demonstrating management's confidence in continued growth.
- Brand Performance Variance: Among comparable restaurant sales, Outback Steakhouse saw a decline of 0.3%, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill and Bonefish Grill experienced increases of 1.3% and 6.1%, respectively, highlighting performance disparities that may influence future resource allocation.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Reports Increased Q1 Earnings
- Earnings Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported a first-quarter profit of $56.80 million, translating to $0.64 per share, which marks a significant increase from last year's $43.85 million and $0.50 per share, indicating strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding items, the company reported adjusted earnings of $57.36 million or $0.67 per share, showcasing success in cost control and operational efficiency improvements.
- Revenue Increase: The company's revenue rose by 1.0% year-over-year to $1.059 billion, up from $1.049 billion last year, reflecting stable revenue growth amidst a competitive dining market.
- Future Guidance: The company provided EPS guidance for the next quarter ranging from $0.24 to $0.29, demonstrating management's confidence in future performance and offering clear expectations for investors, which may further drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Restaurant Sales Slow as Gas Prices Rise
- Sales Slowdown: According to Black Box Intelligence, restaurant traffic fell 2.3% in March compared to the previous year, primarily due to rising gas prices, which have led consumers, especially low-income groups, to cut back on dining out.
- Applebee's Strategy: To attract budget-conscious diners, Applebee's is accelerating its rollout of an All-You-Can-Eat special for $15.99, aiming to boost traffic and enhance its competitive position in the market amid rising costs.
- Market Share Competition: Some restaurant CEOs see the rise in gas prices as an opportunity to capture market share from weaker competitors, with Chili's CEO noting an acceleration in their market share as overall restaurant spending declines.
- Diverse Fast-Food Performance: Despite the overall sales slowdown, McDonald's reported a 3.7% same-store sales growth in Q1, driven by increased spending from higher-income consumers, while Burger King achieved a 5.8% growth, highlighting significant performance disparities among brands.
See More
Insider at Bloomin' Brands (BLMN.US) Plans to Sell $30.86 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Offering Announcement: Insider Starboard Value LP plans to sell 3.8 million shares of its common stock on May 8.
Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $30.86 million.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported Q1 total revenues of $1.06 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase despite facing 4.6% commodity inflation and 3.1% labor inflation, showcasing the company's resilience in adversity.
- Brand Performance: Outback's comparable sales fell by 30 basis points with traffic down 240 basis points, while Carrabba’s and Bonefish saw increases of 130 and 610 basis points respectively, indicating significant performance disparities among brands that necessitate a stronger overall strategy.
- Service Model Innovation: The company launched a new service model in April, planning for each server to manage four tables during peak times, aimed at enhancing customer experience and improving service efficiency, which is expected to positively impact future performance.
- Future Outlook: Management expects Q2 U.S. comparable restaurant sales to grow between 1% and 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $0.27 and $0.32, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view on future growth.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Surpasses Q1 Earnings Expectations
- Sales Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported a 0.9% increase in comparable sales for Q1, driven by a 6.1% rise at Bonefish Grill and a 1.3% increase at Carrabba's Italian Grill, effectively offsetting a 0.3% decline at Outback Steakhouse, showcasing brand differentiation.
- Margin Improvement: The restaurant-level operating margin increased by 10 basis points year-over-year to 14.0%, primarily due to higher average checks, cost-saving measures, and productivity initiatives, although inflationary pressures on commodity, operating, and labor costs partially offset these gains.
- Earnings Beat: Operating income reached $59.1 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $56.7 million, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.67 exceeded expectations of $0.57, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability.
- Outlook Confirmation: Bloomin' Brands reaffirmed its full-year guidance for comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 2% and adjusted EPS between $0.27 and $0.32, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Q1 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Strong Earnings: Bloomin' Brands reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.67, beating expectations by $0.10, indicating sustained profitability improvements and boosting market confidence in future performance.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved $1.06 billion in revenue for the first quarter, a 1.0% year-over-year increase that exceeded market expectations by $20 million, primarily driven by higher comparable restaurant sales, reflecting stable consumer demand.
- Future Outlook: The company projects U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 2% for Q2 2026, with adjusted diluted EPS expected to range from $0.27 to $0.32, demonstrating management's confidence in continued growth.
- Brand Performance Variance: Among comparable restaurant sales, Outback Steakhouse saw a decline of 0.3%, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill and Bonefish Grill experienced increases of 1.3% and 6.1%, respectively, highlighting performance disparities that may influence future resource allocation.
See More
Bloomin' Brands Reports Increased Q1 Earnings
- Earnings Growth: Bloomin' Brands reported a first-quarter profit of $56.80 million, translating to $0.64 per share, which marks a significant increase from last year's $43.85 million and $0.50 per share, indicating strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding items, the company reported adjusted earnings of $57.36 million or $0.67 per share, showcasing success in cost control and operational efficiency improvements.
- Revenue Increase: The company's revenue rose by 1.0% year-over-year to $1.059 billion, up from $1.049 billion last year, reflecting stable revenue growth amidst a competitive dining market.
- Future Guidance: The company provided EPS guidance for the next quarter ranging from $0.24 to $0.29, demonstrating management's confidence in future performance and offering clear expectations for investors, which may further drive stock price appreciation.
See More
