EXCLUSIVE: Weight-Loss Duopoly Breaks As Eli Lilly, Novo Plummet; 'Market Won't Be Dominated By Just 2 Players'
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 18 2024
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- GLP-1 Market Leaders Face Selloff: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk experienced a significant drop in stock prices due to competition from new weight-loss drugs developed by other pharmaceutical companies.
- Competition and Future Outlook: The entry of Pfizer and Roche into the obesity-fighting drug market poses a threat to the dominance of Novo and Lilly, with potential for up to five credible players in the GLP-1 market.
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Analyst Views on AMGN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMGN stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 344.720
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
Current: 344.720
Low
280.00
Averages
363.10
High
425.00
About AMGN
Amgen Inc. is a biotechnology company. It discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers medicines for the toughest diseases. It focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its expertise to strive for solutions that improve people’s lives. It operates in the human therapeutics segment. Its marketed products portfolio includes EPOGEN (epoetin alfa); Aranesp (darbepoetin alfa); Parsabiv (etelcalcetide); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); KANJINTI (trastuzumab-anns); Otezla; BLINCYTO (blinatumomab); ACTIMMUNE (interferon gamma-1b); Neulasta (pegfilgrastim); Sensipar/Mimpara (cinacalcet); Prolia (denosumab); ENBREL; QUINSAIR (levofloxacin); Repatha (evolocumab) and others. It markets ENBREL, a tumor necrosis factor blocker, in the United States and Canada. It markets Otezla, a small molecule that inhibits phosphodiesterase 4, in many countries around the world. It markets Repatha, a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, in many countries around the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Regeneron and Amgen's Promising Weight Loss Candidates
- Clinical Trial Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 clinical trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating significant potential in the weight loss market; approval in the U.S. could further boost the company's revenue growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged by 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, showcasing resilience despite biosimilar competition for Eylea, with sales of a new high-dose formulation growing rapidly, reflecting the company's adaptability in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Amgen's Competitive Edge: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which targets chronic weight management, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular outcomes; approval across multiple indications could pose a substantial challenge to market leaders, driving future revenue growth for the company.
- Dividend Appeal: Amgen has increased its dividends annually since 2011, currently offering a forward yield of 3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, attracting long-term investors while providing additional income security for shareholders interested in weight-loss stocks.
See More
Emerging Stars in Weight Loss: Regeneron and Amgen
- Regeneron Clinical Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating strong potential in the weight-loss market; approval in the U.S. could significantly boost the company's growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, and despite facing biosimilar competition for Eylea, the sales growth of a new high-dose formulation reflects a solid financial foundation beyond weight-loss drugs.
- Amgen's Drug Development: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which, if approved, will target chronic weight management and type 2 diabetes, potentially positioning it as a formidable competitor to Zepbound and expanding market share.
- Stable Dividend Yield: Amgen's revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $8.6 billion in Q1, and despite losing patent exclusivity for denosumab, strong sales from other products like Tezspire and Tepezza, along with consistent dividend increases since 2011, make it attractive for long-term investors.
See More
Comparing Investment Prospects of Amgen and NovoCure
- Amgen's Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Amgen's revenue reached $36.8 billion, reflecting a 10.1% growth with a net income of $7.7 billion, showcasing its strong market position in chronic disease treatments, although high customer concentration poses risks.
- NovoCure's Unique Model: NovoCure generated approximately $655.4 million in FY 2025, an 8.3% increase, but reported a net loss of nearly $136.2 million, highlighting the high costs associated with expanding its product reach.
- Debt and Cash Flow: Amgen's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 6.3x, indicating heavy reliance on borrowed funds, yet it generated $8.1 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating robust cash generation; in contrast, NovoCure's ratio is 0.9x with negative free cash flow of $75.7 million, indicating significant funding needs.
- Market Competition and Outlook: Amgen faces regulatory pressures, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act, while NovoCure relies on stringent regulatory approvals and payer coverage, with its core product recently FDA-approved, yet future growth potential appears limited.
See More
Investment Analysis: Amgen vs. NovoCure
- Amgen Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Amgen's revenue reached $36.8 billion, reflecting a 10.1% growth with a net income of $7.7 billion, showcasing its strong market position in chronic disease treatments despite risks from customer concentration.
- NovoCure's Innovative Model: NovoCure generated approximately $655.4 million in FY 2025, an 8.3% increase, but reported a net loss of nearly $136.2 million, highlighting the high costs associated with expanding its product reach.
- Risk Comparison: Amgen faces regulatory pressures and tax disputes, with concentrated manufacturing in Puerto Rico posing natural disaster risks, while NovoCure relies on strict international medical standards and payer coverage, facing intense competition.
- Valuation Comparison: Amgen's forward P/E ratio stands at 15.2x, indicating strong profitability, while NovoCure's P/S ratio is 2.6x, suggesting potential growth but necessitating caution regarding its funding needs, prompting investors to weigh risks against returns.
See More
Market Momentum Broadens Beyond AI
- Market Performance Surge: As of Tuesday, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has risen 10.4% this year, compared to a 9.7% increase in the market cap-weighted version, indicating that the equal-weight index is on track to outperform the traditional S&P 500 for the first time since 2022, reflecting broad market interest in emerging technologies.
- Geopolitical Influence: Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are driving broader market gains, with market optimism significantly boosted by the positive sentiment surrounding current Iran negotiations.
- Healthcare Sector Opportunities: Despite the S&P 500 healthcare sector declining over 1% this year, UBS's Gerry Fowler believes the sector's appeal is increasing, particularly in the U.S., where themes reflecting accelerating growth are becoming as attractive as long-standing AI capex beneficiaries.
- Software Sector Recovery: Although the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 13% year-to-date, it has gained over 14% in the second quarter, indicating improved earnings revisions in the software sector that could provide additional growth momentum.
See More
SpaceX Stock Soars, Tesla Deliveries Exceed Expectations
- SpaceX Stock Surge: Following a nearly 20% gain on its first trading day, SpaceX's stock rose another 4.5% in premarket trading, driven by CEO Elon Musk's projection of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, potentially pushing its market cap above Amazon's.
- Tesla Deliveries Exceed Expectations: Goldman Sachs reports that Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries are tracking ahead of consensus, with speculation that Musk aims to merge Tesla and SpaceX to leverage synergies between the Optimus robot and Starlink internet service, enhancing competitive positioning.
- Dave & Buster's Sales Decline: Dave & Buster's comparable store sales fell 5.4% in the quarter ending May 5, significantly worse than the -1.2% consensus, resulting in a nearly 15% drop in premarket trading, prompting analysts to adopt a cautious outlook on its future performance.
- Yum Brands Sells Pizza Hut: Yum Brands has sold Pizza Hut to private equity firm LongRange Capital for $2.7 billion, a strategic move to exit the underperforming pizza business and focus on higher-growth brands like KFC and Taco Bell, reflecting a decisive shift in corporate strategy.
See More
Regeneron and Amgen's Promising Weight Loss Candidates
- Clinical Trial Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 clinical trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating significant potential in the weight loss market; approval in the U.S. could further boost the company's revenue growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged by 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, showcasing resilience despite biosimilar competition for Eylea, with sales of a new high-dose formulation growing rapidly, reflecting the company's adaptability in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Amgen's Competitive Edge: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which targets chronic weight management, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular outcomes; approval across multiple indications could pose a substantial challenge to market leaders, driving future revenue growth for the company.
- Dividend Appeal: Amgen has increased its dividends annually since 2011, currently offering a forward yield of 3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, attracting long-term investors while providing additional income security for shareholders interested in weight-loss stocks.
See More
Emerging Stars in Weight Loss: Regeneron and Amgen
- Regeneron Clinical Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating strong potential in the weight-loss market; approval in the U.S. could significantly boost the company's growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, and despite facing biosimilar competition for Eylea, the sales growth of a new high-dose formulation reflects a solid financial foundation beyond weight-loss drugs.
- Amgen's Drug Development: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which, if approved, will target chronic weight management and type 2 diabetes, potentially positioning it as a formidable competitor to Zepbound and expanding market share.
- Stable Dividend Yield: Amgen's revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $8.6 billion in Q1, and despite losing patent exclusivity for denosumab, strong sales from other products like Tezspire and Tepezza, along with consistent dividend increases since 2011, make it attractive for long-term investors.
See More
Comparing Investment Prospects of Amgen and NovoCure
- Amgen's Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Amgen's revenue reached $36.8 billion, reflecting a 10.1% growth with a net income of $7.7 billion, showcasing its strong market position in chronic disease treatments, although high customer concentration poses risks.
- NovoCure's Unique Model: NovoCure generated approximately $655.4 million in FY 2025, an 8.3% increase, but reported a net loss of nearly $136.2 million, highlighting the high costs associated with expanding its product reach.
- Debt and Cash Flow: Amgen's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 6.3x, indicating heavy reliance on borrowed funds, yet it generated $8.1 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating robust cash generation; in contrast, NovoCure's ratio is 0.9x with negative free cash flow of $75.7 million, indicating significant funding needs.
- Market Competition and Outlook: Amgen faces regulatory pressures, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act, while NovoCure relies on stringent regulatory approvals and payer coverage, with its core product recently FDA-approved, yet future growth potential appears limited.
See More
Investment Analysis: Amgen vs. NovoCure
- Amgen Financial Performance: In FY 2025, Amgen's revenue reached $36.8 billion, reflecting a 10.1% growth with a net income of $7.7 billion, showcasing its strong market position in chronic disease treatments despite risks from customer concentration.
- NovoCure's Innovative Model: NovoCure generated approximately $655.4 million in FY 2025, an 8.3% increase, but reported a net loss of nearly $136.2 million, highlighting the high costs associated with expanding its product reach.
- Risk Comparison: Amgen faces regulatory pressures and tax disputes, with concentrated manufacturing in Puerto Rico posing natural disaster risks, while NovoCure relies on strict international medical standards and payer coverage, facing intense competition.
- Valuation Comparison: Amgen's forward P/E ratio stands at 15.2x, indicating strong profitability, while NovoCure's P/S ratio is 2.6x, suggesting potential growth but necessitating caution regarding its funding needs, prompting investors to weigh risks against returns.
See More
Market Momentum Broadens Beyond AI
- Market Performance Surge: As of Tuesday, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has risen 10.4% this year, compared to a 9.7% increase in the market cap-weighted version, indicating that the equal-weight index is on track to outperform the traditional S&P 500 for the first time since 2022, reflecting broad market interest in emerging technologies.
- Geopolitical Influence: Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are driving broader market gains, with market optimism significantly boosted by the positive sentiment surrounding current Iran negotiations.
- Healthcare Sector Opportunities: Despite the S&P 500 healthcare sector declining over 1% this year, UBS's Gerry Fowler believes the sector's appeal is increasing, particularly in the U.S., where themes reflecting accelerating growth are becoming as attractive as long-standing AI capex beneficiaries.
- Software Sector Recovery: Although the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 13% year-to-date, it has gained over 14% in the second quarter, indicating improved earnings revisions in the software sector that could provide additional growth momentum.
See More
SpaceX Stock Soars, Tesla Deliveries Exceed Expectations
- SpaceX Stock Surge: Following a nearly 20% gain on its first trading day, SpaceX's stock rose another 4.5% in premarket trading, driven by CEO Elon Musk's projection of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, potentially pushing its market cap above Amazon's.
- Tesla Deliveries Exceed Expectations: Goldman Sachs reports that Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries are tracking ahead of consensus, with speculation that Musk aims to merge Tesla and SpaceX to leverage synergies between the Optimus robot and Starlink internet service, enhancing competitive positioning.
- Dave & Buster's Sales Decline: Dave & Buster's comparable store sales fell 5.4% in the quarter ending May 5, significantly worse than the -1.2% consensus, resulting in a nearly 15% drop in premarket trading, prompting analysts to adopt a cautious outlook on its future performance.
- Yum Brands Sells Pizza Hut: Yum Brands has sold Pizza Hut to private equity firm LongRange Capital for $2.7 billion, a strategic move to exit the underperforming pizza business and focus on higher-growth brands like KFC and Taco Bell, reflecting a decisive shift in corporate strategy.
See More
