Dow Receives Price Increase: Analyst Highlights Cost-Cutting Successes Amid Ongoing Margin Concerns
Analyst Upgrade: B of A Securities analyst Matthew DeYoe raised Dow Inc.'s price forecast to $26 from $24 while maintaining a Neutral rating, following the company's better-than-expected earnings results.
Earnings Performance: Dow reported an adjusted loss of 19 cents per share, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of a 29-cent loss, but revenue fell 8% year-over-year to $9.97 billion, missing the $10.23 billion estimate.
Cost-Cutting Impact: The analyst highlighted that Dow's earnings exceeded initial guidance due to effective cost-cutting measures, although concerns remain about global oversupply limiting profit growth.
Future Outlook: DeYoe raised the fourth-quarter EBITDA estimate to $690 million, driven by Packaging & Specialty Plastics, but expressed skepticism about the company's optimistic polyethylene margin outlook amid declining U.S. export prices.
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- Rating Downgrade: Citi downgraded Westlake's investment rating from Buy to Neutral, primarily due to weakening housing demand and softer pricing for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which is expected to limit upside for the chemical producer.
- Target Price Adjustment: The analyst cut Westlake's target price from $125 to $95, reflecting expectations of normalization in the PVC market, particularly as over 70% of China's PVC production relies on coal feedstocks.
- Market Pressures: Citi noted that China PVC prices have fallen approximately 21% from their March peak, while U.S. export prices have also decreased by 7% from recent highs in May, indicating pressure from weak construction activity and ample global supply.
- Demand Concerns: As oil prices rise, investor worries about weakening demand across the chemicals sector have intensified, with Citi highlighting that while chemical stocks rose only 7% over the past three months, Brent crude prices surged 57%, suggesting the market is pricing in potential demand destruction.
- Demand Recovery Trend: The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a rebound in demand in the automotive and construction markets, particularly as the end of customer inventory destocking will further drive chemical demand growth following last year's lows.
- Strategic Measures Implementation: Industry participants are implementing strategic measures such as cost-cutting and price increases to counter rising raw material and logistics costs, thereby sustaining margins amid the current macroeconomic environment.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite the chemical industry's 10.8% gain over the past year, which lags behind the S&P 500's 30.2% and the broader basic materials sector's 36.8%, its Zacks industry rank places it in the top 42%, indicating potential for future growth.
- Stock Outlook: Companies like Dow (DOW) and Albemarle (ALB) are projected to achieve significant earnings growth of 352.1% and 1,675.9% respectively for 2026, reflecting strong market confidence and investment potential.
- Strategic Partnership Enhancement: Univar Solutions has strengthened its long-term partnership with Dow, aiming to jointly promote silicone additives across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which is expected to enhance both companies' market share in the plastics and composites sector.
- Market Coverage Expansion: The new agreement enables Univar to more effectively distribute Dow's silicone additives in the EMEA region's plastics and composites market, addressing the growing customer demand and further solidifying its leadership position in the industry.
- Performance Improvement: By incorporating Dow's advanced silicone technologies, Univar will be able to offer higher-performance solutions in plastics and composites, enhancing processability and sustainability, thereby boosting customer competitiveness.
- Sustainability Commitment: This collaboration not only focuses on improving product performance but also emphasizes achieving greater sustainability in the production of plastics and composites, aligning with the global demand for environmentally friendly materials.
- Project Advancement: Pembina Pipeline has announced the advancement of its C$570 million Heartland extraction plant project, which includes a new 750 million cubic feet per day straddle plant to utilize its extraction rights on the Yellowhead pipeline, despite a 1.5% decline in stock due to falling crude oil prices.
- Growth Target: The company stated that sanctioning the Heartland project is a crucial step towards achieving its 5%-7% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share growth target by 2030, indicating a strategic focus on capital efficiency.
- Long-Term Agreement: Pembina has signed a new long-term agreement with Dow Inc. to supply ethane starting in late 2029, with a projected increase to 22,500 barrels per day by the end of 2030, which is an increase from the original agreement of 50,000 barrels per day.
- Supply Capacity Enhancement: Including the Heartland agreement and the amended supply agreement, Pembina expects to supply Dow with 57,500 barrels per day of ethane, further strengthening its competitive position and supply capabilities in the market.
- Strategic Partnership Expansion: Univar Solutions has deepened its long-standing partnership with Dow, with a new agreement allowing the distribution of Dow's silicone additives across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the plastics and composites market.
- Market Coverage Enhancement: This collaboration enables Univar Solutions to offer a broader product portfolio in the EMEA region, addressing the growing demand in the plastics and composites industry, thereby increasing its market share and customer base.
- Innovation-Driven Technology: Dow's silicone additives will improve the performance, processing, and durability of plastics and composites, further driving technological advancements in the industry and enhancing customer satisfaction.
- Growth Potential: This partnership not only provides Univar Solutions with new revenue streams but also attracts more customers by offering high-performance products, which is expected to positively impact future financial performance.
- Partnership Expansion: Univar Solutions has expanded its partnership with Dow Inc. to distribute Dow's silicone additives for plastics and composites across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, enhancing its market position in chemical distribution.
- Technology Integration: This collaboration combines Dow's silicone technology expertise with Univar's distribution network, product management, and technical support capabilities, aiming to deliver specialized chemical solutions that enhance manufacturers' product performance and sustainability.
- Strategic Market Move: Matthew Oliver, Senior Vice President of Performance Materials at Univar, stated that entering the silicone additives market for plastics and composites is a natural next step, indicating the company's commitment to meeting customer performance and sustainability goals, thereby strengthening its competitive edge.
- Industry Impact: Through this partnership, Univar not only expands its product line but also positions itself favorably in the rapidly evolving chemical market, driving future growth and innovation for the company.











