Closure of Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Oil and Gas Supply
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 03 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Oil Price Outlook: Goldman Sachs has updated its oil model, predicting that oil prices will likely remain elevated for an extended period due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which significantly impacts global energy supply and enhances profitability for related companies.
- BP's Doubling Profits: BP's first-quarter earnings more than doubled year-over-year, primarily driven by rising oil prices that offset supply disruptions, demonstrating a marked improvement in corporate profitability in a high oil price environment.
- Diamondback Energy's Strong Performance: Diamondback Energy's stock has risen 35% this year, as its operations remain unaffected by Middle Eastern conflicts, and strong earnings are anticipated in its upcoming report on May 5, further solidifying its market position.
- Risk-Reward Trade-Off: While both BP and Diamondback Energy benefit from rising oil prices, investors must be cautious of future energy market fluctuations, making financially robust integrated energy firms like Chevron a wiser choice to navigate potential market corrections.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy BP?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on BP
Wall Street analysts forecast BP stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.810
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
Current: 43.810
Low
6.38
Averages
84.26
High
503.69
About BP
BP p.l.c. is a United Kingdom-based integrated energy company. Its segments include Gas & low carbon energy, Oil production & operations, Customers & products, and Other businesses & corporate. The gas & low carbon energy comprises regions with upstream businesses that predominantly produce natural gas, gas marketing and trading activities and its solar, wind and hydrogen businesses. The oil production & operations segment comprises regions with upstream activities that predominantly produce crude oil, including bpx energy. The customers & products segment comprises its customer-focused businesses, which include convenience and retail fuels, electric vehicle (EV) charging, as well as Castrol, aviation and business-to-business (B2B) and midstream. It also includes its products businesses, refining and oil trading, as well as its bioenergy businesses. The other businesses and corporate also comprises the Company's shipping and treasury functions, and corporate activities worldwide.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
BP Plans to Sell Stakes in UK Carbon Capture Projects
- Stake Sale Announcement: BP has announced plans to sell its stakes in two flagship UK carbon capture projects, although specific stake sizes or potential buyers remain undisclosed, indicating a strategic move to recover capital after reaching significant project milestones.
- Project Milestones: Both the Northern Endurance Partnership and Net Zero Teesside Power projects have achieved financial close and commenced construction, leading BP to believe that this is the right time to divest a portion of its equity to optimize its investment portfolio.
- Carbon Storage Capacity: The NEP project is expected to permanently store up to 4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, while the NZT power project is set to become the world's first gas power plant with carbon capture, aiming to supply power to approximately 1 million UK homes by 2028, showcasing BP's strategic positioning in renewable energy.
- International Collaboration: Additionally, BP has received an extension from the U.S. to continue operating the Shah Deniz natural gas field in Azerbaijan with Iranian and Russian partners, further solidifying its position in the global energy market.
See More
Shell Reports Stronger-Than-Expected Q1 Profit Amid Iran War
- Strong Earnings Performance: Shell reported adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for Q1, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.1 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience and operational efficiency amid global energy market disruptions.
- Dividend and Buyback Adjustments: The company announced a 5% increase in its dividend to $0.3906 per share while reducing its quarterly buyback from $3.5 billion to $3 billion, reflecting prudent capital management strategies.
- Rising Debt Levels: Shell's net debt rose to $52.6 billion at the end of Q1 from $45.7 billion at the end of last year, primarily due to the negative impact of rising oil prices on inventory values, although analysts view this as a minor negative factor.
- ARC Resources Acquisition: Last month, Shell announced a $16.4 billion acquisition of Canadian ARC Resources, aimed at strengthening its resource base in low-carbon intensity production, which is expected to support future output growth.
See More
Indiana Gas Prices Surge to $4.81 Amid Supply Issues
- Price Surge: Indiana's average price for regular unleaded gasoline has skyrocketed to $4.81 per gallon, exceeding the national average by $0.35, placing the state among the top ten most expensive for fuel, which significantly burdens local consumers.
- Power Outage Impact: The BP Whiting Refinery, the largest gasoline refinery in the U.S., is partially shut down due to an electrical failure, causing wholesale gasoline prices to soar, with consumers beginning to feel the impact at retail levels, and this situation is expected to last for weeks.
- Market Response: With the supply from the Whiting Refinery constrained, Indiana drivers are advised to purchase only the gasoline they need immediately, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain amid high baseline prices.
- BP Financial Impact: While BP may see a slight hit to product revenue and earnings due to the outage, the overall impact on the company's financial health is expected to be minimal, similar to the $100 million EBIT reduction experienced during a previous outage in 2025.
See More
Michigan Gas Prices Surge to New Highs
- Price Surge: Michigan's average price for regular unleaded gasoline has skyrocketed to $4.86 per gallon, which is $0.40 above the national average, placing it as the ninth highest state for gas prices, significantly burdening local drivers.
- National Trend: Over the past year, the national average gas price has risen from $3.17 per gallon to $4.46, indicating that Michigan's gas prices are affected by the broader trend of rising global oil prices due to the war in Iran.
- Refinery Shutdown: The BP Whiting Refinery in Indiana, the largest gasoline refinery outside Texas and Louisiana, shut down due to an electrical issue, causing wholesale gasoline prices to soar in the Great Lakes region, which has now fully impacted retail prices in Michigan.
- Investor Impact: While BP's products segment may experience a minor revenue hit from the outage, the $100 million loss is only 0.08% of its $12.9 billion EBIT, suggesting minimal impact on shareholders, as BP's stock has actually risen since the outage occurred.
See More
TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
See More
Illinois Gas Prices Surge to $4.94 Amid Refinery Shutdown
- Price Surge: Illinois has seen regular unleaded gasoline prices soar to $4.94 per gallon this week, exceeding the national average by $0.48 and making it the seventh-most expensive state for gas, and the highest outside the West Coast.
- Causative Factors: While the war in Iran has contributed to rising gas prices across the U.S., the sharp increase in Illinois is primarily attributed to the shutdown of the Whiting Refinery in Indiana, the largest gasoline refinery in the U.S., which produces about 16 million gallons of fuel daily.
- Supply Chain Impact: The refinery's shutdown has caused wholesale gasoline prices to spike across the Great Lakes region, and although retail prices take time to adjust, consumers can expect elevated prices to persist until the refinery resumes operations.
- Shareholder Effects: BP shareholders are unlikely to feel significant impacts from the outage, as historical data indicates that the last shutdown resulted in only a $100 million reduction in Q4 product earnings, which is minimal compared to BP's overall EBIT of $12.9 billion.
See More
BP Plans to Sell Stakes in UK Carbon Capture Projects
- Stake Sale Announcement: BP has announced plans to sell its stakes in two flagship UK carbon capture projects, although specific stake sizes or potential buyers remain undisclosed, indicating a strategic move to recover capital after reaching significant project milestones.
- Project Milestones: Both the Northern Endurance Partnership and Net Zero Teesside Power projects have achieved financial close and commenced construction, leading BP to believe that this is the right time to divest a portion of its equity to optimize its investment portfolio.
- Carbon Storage Capacity: The NEP project is expected to permanently store up to 4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, while the NZT power project is set to become the world's first gas power plant with carbon capture, aiming to supply power to approximately 1 million UK homes by 2028, showcasing BP's strategic positioning in renewable energy.
- International Collaboration: Additionally, BP has received an extension from the U.S. to continue operating the Shah Deniz natural gas field in Azerbaijan with Iranian and Russian partners, further solidifying its position in the global energy market.
See More
Shell Reports Stronger-Than-Expected Q1 Profit Amid Iran War
- Strong Earnings Performance: Shell reported adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for Q1, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.1 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience and operational efficiency amid global energy market disruptions.
- Dividend and Buyback Adjustments: The company announced a 5% increase in its dividend to $0.3906 per share while reducing its quarterly buyback from $3.5 billion to $3 billion, reflecting prudent capital management strategies.
- Rising Debt Levels: Shell's net debt rose to $52.6 billion at the end of Q1 from $45.7 billion at the end of last year, primarily due to the negative impact of rising oil prices on inventory values, although analysts view this as a minor negative factor.
- ARC Resources Acquisition: Last month, Shell announced a $16.4 billion acquisition of Canadian ARC Resources, aimed at strengthening its resource base in low-carbon intensity production, which is expected to support future output growth.
See More
Indiana Gas Prices Surge to $4.81 Amid Supply Issues
- Price Surge: Indiana's average price for regular unleaded gasoline has skyrocketed to $4.81 per gallon, exceeding the national average by $0.35, placing the state among the top ten most expensive for fuel, which significantly burdens local consumers.
- Power Outage Impact: The BP Whiting Refinery, the largest gasoline refinery in the U.S., is partially shut down due to an electrical failure, causing wholesale gasoline prices to soar, with consumers beginning to feel the impact at retail levels, and this situation is expected to last for weeks.
- Market Response: With the supply from the Whiting Refinery constrained, Indiana drivers are advised to purchase only the gasoline they need immediately, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain amid high baseline prices.
- BP Financial Impact: While BP may see a slight hit to product revenue and earnings due to the outage, the overall impact on the company's financial health is expected to be minimal, similar to the $100 million EBIT reduction experienced during a previous outage in 2025.
See More
Michigan Gas Prices Surge to New Highs
- Price Surge: Michigan's average price for regular unleaded gasoline has skyrocketed to $4.86 per gallon, which is $0.40 above the national average, placing it as the ninth highest state for gas prices, significantly burdening local drivers.
- National Trend: Over the past year, the national average gas price has risen from $3.17 per gallon to $4.46, indicating that Michigan's gas prices are affected by the broader trend of rising global oil prices due to the war in Iran.
- Refinery Shutdown: The BP Whiting Refinery in Indiana, the largest gasoline refinery outside Texas and Louisiana, shut down due to an electrical issue, causing wholesale gasoline prices to soar in the Great Lakes region, which has now fully impacted retail prices in Michigan.
- Investor Impact: While BP's products segment may experience a minor revenue hit from the outage, the $100 million loss is only 0.08% of its $12.9 billion EBIT, suggesting minimal impact on shareholders, as BP's stock has actually risen since the outage occurred.
See More
TRUMP: POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS ON IRAN OVER THE PAST DAY
- Trump's Recent Talks: Donald Trump has engaged in discussions regarding Iran over the past 24 hours.
- Focus on Iran: The conversations have been characterized as very positive, indicating a potential shift in diplomatic relations.
See More
Illinois Gas Prices Surge to $4.94 Amid Refinery Shutdown
- Price Surge: Illinois has seen regular unleaded gasoline prices soar to $4.94 per gallon this week, exceeding the national average by $0.48 and making it the seventh-most expensive state for gas, and the highest outside the West Coast.
- Causative Factors: While the war in Iran has contributed to rising gas prices across the U.S., the sharp increase in Illinois is primarily attributed to the shutdown of the Whiting Refinery in Indiana, the largest gasoline refinery in the U.S., which produces about 16 million gallons of fuel daily.
- Supply Chain Impact: The refinery's shutdown has caused wholesale gasoline prices to spike across the Great Lakes region, and although retail prices take time to adjust, consumers can expect elevated prices to persist until the refinery resumes operations.
- Shareholder Effects: BP shareholders are unlikely to feel significant impacts from the outage, as historical data indicates that the last shutdown resulted in only a $100 million reduction in Q4 product earnings, which is minimal compared to BP's overall EBIT of $12.9 billion.
See More
