Bristol Myers Squibb Faces Patent Cliffs Ahead
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy BMY?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Patent Cliff Risks: Bristol Myers Squibb is set to face more patent cliffs in the coming years, with its two best-selling drugs, Opdivo and Eliquis, losing patent protection by the end of the decade, which could lead to significant underperformance against broader equities and potentially be a wealth destroyer over the next five years.
- New Drug Sales Growth: Despite challenges, the company reported a 3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 to $11.5 billion, with Eliquis and Opdivo accounting for over 60% of sales, indicating potential in new drug sales, particularly with Reblozyl's 16% growth to $555 million.
- Pipeline Outlook: The next-generation anticoagulant Milvexian, currently in phase 3 trials, is expected to generate over $1 billion in annual sales if successful, potentially replacing Eliquis and enhancing the company's competitive position in the anticoagulant market.
- Attractive Valuation and Dividends: Trading at 9x forward earnings, significantly below the healthcare sector average of 16.8, and offering a 4.5% dividend yield, Bristol Myers Squibb remains appealing to value investors and income seekers, despite short-term sales growth challenges, due to its strong pipeline and growth potential.
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Analyst Views on BMY
Wall Street analysts forecast BMY stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
11 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 56.450
Low
37.00
Averages
55.86
High
68.00
Current: 56.450
Low
37.00
Averages
55.86
High
68.00
About BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the discovery, development, and delivery of transformational medicines for patients facing serious diseases in areas: oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience and other areas. Its growth portfolio includes Opdivo (nivolumab), Opdivo Qvantig (nivolumab and hyaluronidase-nvhy), Orencia (abatacept), Yervoy (ipilimumab), Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt), Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel), Opdualag (nivolumab and relatlimab-rmbw), Camzyos (mavacamten), Zeposia (ozanimod), Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel), Sotyktu (deucravacitinib), Krazati (adagrasib), and Cobenfy (xanomeline and trospium chloride). Its other growth products include Augtyro, Onureg, Inrebic, Nulojix, and Empliciti. Its legacy portfolio includes Eliquis (apixaban), Revlimid (lenalidomide), Pomalyst/Imnovid (pomalidomide), Sprycel (dasatinib), and Abraxane (paclitaxel albumin-bound particles for injectable suspension).
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Partnership Scale: The global partnership between Bristol Myers Squibb and Hengrui Pharma is valued at up to $15.2 billion, encompassing as many as 13 R&D programs in oncology, hematology, and immunology, highlighting a significant collaboration in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Asset Sharing Arrangement: Under the agreement, Bristol Myers Squibb will gain exclusive worldwide rights to Hengrui-discovered assets outside of China, while Hengrui will hold exclusive rights to Bristol Myers assets within its territories, enhancing both companies' competitive edge in the global market.
- Funding Structure: Hengrui Pharma is set to receive up to $950 million, including $600 million upfront and $175 million anniversary payments in 2027 and 2028, providing substantial financial backing for its R&D initiatives.
- Future Revenue Potential: The agreement is expected to close in Q3 2026, allowing Hengrui to earn tiered royalties on net sales of products marketed outside its territories, which not only ensures a continuous revenue stream for Hengrui but also solidifies the foundation for long-term collaboration between the two firms.
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- Bristol Myers and Hengrui Pharma Partnership: Bristol Myers Squibb's stock edged up 0.36% in premarket trading following its announcement of a global partnership with China's Hengrui Pharma worth up to $15.2 billion to jointly advance up to 13 R&D programs in oncology, hematology, and immunology, showcasing the company's potential for international market expansion.
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- Rising Cardiovascular Costs: The American Heart Association warns that U.S. heart disease costs are set to quadruple by 2050, with national healthcare spending nearing $5 trillion, compelling hospitals to rethink their diagnostic and treatment strategies for cardiac patients, thereby driving structural changes in the healthcare industry.
- Rapid Growth of AI Cardiology Market: The global AI cardiology market is projected to grow from $2.78 billion this year to over $14 billion by 2034, reflecting a strong demand for innovative technologies as health systems rush to deploy machine learning tools to address diagnostic backlogs.
- Showcasing VMS+™ 4.0 Technology: VentriPoint Diagnostics will showcase its AI-powered cardiac imaging platform at the AEPC conference in Italy, which converts standard 2D ultrasound scans into detailed 3D heart models, providing results comparable to cardiac MRI without the need for expensive machines and long wait times.
- International Collaborations and Market Expansion: VentriPoint has established partnerships for regulatory approval of VMS+™ 4.0 in China and is promoting cardiac diagnostics in Costa Rica and Indigenous communities in Canada, demonstrating its potential for global market expansion and commercial momentum.
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- Cost Warning for Cardiovascular Disease: The American Heart Association warns that U.S. heart disease costs are set to quadruple by 2050, with national healthcare spending nearing $5 trillion, compelling hospitals to rethink their diagnostic and treatment approaches for cardiac patients, potentially leading to significant industry transformation.
- Growth of AI Cardiology Market: The global AI cardiology market is valued at $2.78 billion this year and is projected to exceed $14 billion by 2034, driving health systems to accelerate the deployment of machine learning tools to address diagnostic backlogs, thereby enhancing medical efficiency and patient satisfaction.
- Showcasing VMS+™ 4.0 Technology: VentriPoint Diagnostics will showcase its AI-powered cardiac imaging platform, VMS+™ 4.0, at the AEPC annual meeting in Italy, which can convert standard 2D ultrasound scans into detailed 3D heart models, providing results comparable to cardiac MRI while significantly reducing equipment costs and wait times.
- International Collaborations and Market Expansion: VentriPoint has established relationships with multiple international partners, including Lishman Global, which is applying for regulatory approval in China, and collaborations in Costa Rica and Indigenous communities in Canada, demonstrating its growth potential and strategic positioning in the global cardiac diagnostics market.
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- Collaboration Agreement: Bristol-Myers Squibb and Hengrui Pharma have signed a collaboration and licensing agreement aimed at jointly developing new drugs, which is expected to enhance both companies' competitiveness in the global market.
- Market Potential: This partnership will allow both parties to leverage their respective R&D capabilities and market resources, potentially accelerating the drug development timeline and increasing market share in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Strategic Implications: Through this collaboration, Bristol-Myers Squibb can further expand its influence in the Chinese market, while Hengrui Pharma will seize the opportunity to enhance its international presence and global competitiveness.
- R&D Investment: Both companies will invest resources in new drug development, which is expected to lay the groundwork for future innovative drug creation and drive long-term growth for both firms.
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- Weak Sales Growth: Bristol Myers Squibb's first-quarter revenue grew only 3% year-over-year to $11.5 billion, with Eliquis and Opdivo accounting for over half at $6.3 billion, indicating pressure on the company's medium-term outlook that may affect shareholder confidence.
- Strong New Product Performance: Despite facing patent expiration risks, Reblozyl saw a 16% year-over-year sales increase to $555 million in Q1, while the new Opdivo Qvantig surged over 200% to $163 million, showcasing the company's potential in new product development.
- Pipeline Progress is Crucial: Bristol Myers is conducting dozens of clinical trials, with Milvexian, a next-gen anticoagulant, expected to generate over $1 billion in annual sales if successful, which could help replace Eliquis and enhance the company's market competitiveness.
- Attractive Long-Term Investment: Although current sales growth is slow, Bristol Myers trades at a forward P/E of 9, below the healthcare sector average of 16.8, and with a strong pipeline and stable dividend yield, long-term investors should consider the stock's potential value.
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