BofA Cautious on Hospitals, Forecasts 2-4% EBITDA Headwind Over Next 5 Years
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 07 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ARDT?
Source: Benzinga
- Dismal Industry Outlook: BofA Securities forecasts a 2-4% annual EBITDA headwind for hospitals over the next five years due to cuts from the Reconciliation Bill and the expiration of enhanced exchange subsidies, negatively impacting revenue and margins.
- Increased Policy Risks: Analysts note that while some new state-directed payment programs may be approved, future policy changes could further suppress hospital profitability, particularly concerning Medicaid and exchange policies.
- Intensified Market Competition: With healthcare demand stabilizing, core demand for hospital services is expected to grow below the midpoint of long-term ranges in 2026, as policy changes may lead to lower-than-expected volume growth for hospitals.
- Shift in Investment Preferences: BofA favors post-acute care companies like Encompass Health due to their minimal exposure to upcoming cuts, anticipating higher visibility growth, which reflects a positive outlook on favorable industry dynamics.
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Analyst Views on ARDT
Wall Street analysts forecast ARDT stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 9.480
Low
10.00
Averages
13.73
High
17.00
Current: 9.480
Low
10.00
Averages
13.73
High
17.00
About ARDT
Ardent Health, Inc., formerly Ardent Health Partners, Inc., is a provider of healthcare in mid-sized urban communities across the United States. Through its subsidiaries, the Company delivers care through a system of 30 acute care hospitals and approximately 280 sites of care with over 1,800 affiliated providers across six states. It provides both general and specialty services, including internal medicine, general surgery, cardiology, oncology, orthopedics, women’s services, neurology, urology, and emergency services, within inpatient and ambulatory care settings. In addition to its 30 acute care hospitals, it operates a network of ambulatory facilities and telehealth services, including primary care and specialty care clinics, ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), urgent care centers, free-standing emergency departments, and diagnostic imaging centers. It operates a consumer-centric healthcare platform focused on creating relationships with its patients across multiple care settings.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Ardent Health will issue its Q4 and full year 2025 financial results after market close on March 4, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing growth and development in healthcare services.
- Conference Call Timing: A conference call will be held on March 5, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET to review the financial results and conduct a Q&A session, aimed at enhancing investor understanding and confidence in the company's performance.
- Webcast Information: Investors can listen to the live broadcast of the conference call via the Investor Relations section of Ardent Health's website, ensuring to register and install necessary audio software at least 15 minutes prior to the start time for smooth participation.
- Company Overview: Ardent Health provides healthcare services in mid-sized urban communities across the U.S., operating 30 acute care hospitals and 280 sites of care, committed to improving healthcare accessibility through innovative services and technologies, showcasing its leadership in the industry.
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- Lawsuit Background: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC, a nationally recognized investor-rights law firm, has filed a class action lawsuit against Ardent Health and certain officers, seeking damages for investors who purchased Ardent securities between July 18, 2024, and November 12, 2025.
- Financial Misrepresentation Allegations: The complaint alleges that Ardent Health overstated its third-quarter 2025 revenue due to inadequate assessments of accounts receivable collectability following a transition to a new revenue accounting system, raising concerns about the company's financial transparency.
- EBITDA Guidance Downgrade: The lawsuit claims that Ardent's 2025 EBITDA guidance will be reduced by $57.5 million, approximately 9.6%, due to persistent industry-wide cost pressures, indicating significant financial challenges that could undermine investor confidence moving forward.
- Investor Action Recommendations: Affected investors must request to be appointed as lead plaintiffs by March 9, 2026, to participate in potential recoveries, with the law firm operating on a contingency fee basis, thereby minimizing financial risks for investors.
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- Investor Loss Alert: Faruq & Faruqi LLP is urging investors who suffered losses exceeding $100,000 in Ardent Health between July 18, 2024, and November 12, 2025, to contact partner Josh Wilson, indicating potential severe legal liabilities for the company.
- Financial Reporting Errors: Ardent disclosed a $43 million revenue reduction and a $54 million increase in professional liability reserves in its Q3 2025 financial report, leading to a 33.81% drop in stock price to $9.30 per share on November 13, 2025, reflecting market concerns over its financial health.
- Class Action Progress: Faruq & Faruqi is investigating potential claims against Ardent and reminds investors to apply to be lead plaintiffs in the federal securities class action by March 9, 2026, indicating the case could significantly impact many investors' rights.
- Legal Consultation Opportunity: The firm encourages anyone with information regarding Ardent's conduct, including whistleblowers and former employees, to reach out, highlighting the complexity and potential widespread implications of the case.
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- Lawsuit Background: Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP has filed a class action lawsuit against Ardent Health and its executives, alleging securities fraud that led to a significant stock drop due to potential violations of federal securities laws.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the announcement of a $43 million revenue decrease on November 12, 2025, Ardent Health's stock plummeted from $14.05 to $9.30 per share, a decline of over 33%, which directly undermined investor confidence.
- Financial Transparency Issues: The lawsuit claims that Ardent Health did not primarily rely on “detailed reviews of historical collections” for assessing the collectability of accounts receivable, but instead used a 180-day cliff, resulting in distorted financial statements.
- Legal Implications: Investors are encouraged to apply to lead the case by March 9, 2026, and if successful, the lawsuit could have significant repercussions on Ardent Health's financial health and further impact its market reputation.
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- Lawsuit Notification: Kahn Swick & Foti reminds investors who purchased Ardent Health securities between July 18, 2024, and November 12, 2025, to file lead plaintiff applications by March 9, 2026, to participate in the ongoing class action lawsuit against the company.
- Financial Disclosure Issues: On November 12, 2025, Ardent disclosed a $43 million revenue drop for Q3 2025, primarily due to a transition to a new revenue accounting system and evaluations of historical collection trends, leading to a nearly 34% drop in share price the following day.
- EBITDA Guidance Cut: The company revised its 2025 EBITDA guidance down to $530 million to $555 million, a reduction of approximately 9.6% from the previous range of $575 million to $625 million, reflecting persistent industry-wide cost pressures and payer denials.
- Increased Legal Liabilities: Ardent recorded a $54 million increase in professional liability reserves related to settlements and ongoing litigation from 2019 to 2022 in New Mexico, indicating significant challenges in legal compliance and potential future liabilities.
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- Securities Fraud Lawsuit: Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP has filed a class action against Ardent Health and its executives for securities fraud, which has led to a significant stock drop, highlighting serious investor concerns regarding the company's financial transparency.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the financial assessment disclosed on November 12, 2025, Ardent Health reported a $43 million revenue decrease and increased its professional liability reserves by $54 million, causing its stock price to plummet from $14.05 to $9.30 per share, a decline of over 33%.
- Financial Transparency Issues: The lawsuit alleges that Ardent Health misrepresented its reliance on “detailed reviews of historical collections” for assessing accounts receivable collectability, instead using a 180-day cliff, which artificially inflated reported receivables and delayed loss recognition on uncollectible accounts.
- Investor Rights Protection: Investors are encouraged to apply to lead the case by March 9, 2026, with BFA offering legal support on a contingency basis, emphasizing their commitment to protecting investor rights and interests.
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