Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Arch Capital Stock?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 16 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ACGL?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Company Overview and Performance: Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market cap of $34 billion and operates in insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance sectors. Despite a 4.4% decline in stock prices over the past year, it has shown some recovery in 2025, with a YTD gain of 1.3%, although it still lags behind broader market indices.
Earnings Report and Analyst Ratings: The company reported mixed Q1 earnings with an 18.6% increase in total revenues but a significant drop in adjusted net income and EPS. Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, with expectations of a decrease in adjusted EPS for the current fiscal year, while price targets suggest potential upside for the stock.
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Analyst Views on ACGL
Wall Street analysts forecast ACGL stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 99.850
Low
93.00
Averages
106.08
High
124.00
Current: 99.850
Low
93.00
Averages
106.08
High
124.00
About ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based company, which provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance through its subsidiaries. The insurance segment consists of the Company’s insurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including construction and national accounts; excess and surplus casualty; professional lines; programs; property, energy, marine and aviation; travel, accident and health; warranty and lender solutions, and others (consisting of alternative markets, excess workers' compensation and surety business). The reinsurance segment consists of its reinsurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including casualty; marine and aviation; other specialty; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe, and others (consisting of life reinsurance and other). The mortgage segment includes its United States primary mortgage insurance business, investment and services related to United States credit-risk transfer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Robertson Opportunity Capital Acquires $5 Million Stake in MarketAxess
- New Investment Disclosure: According to an SEC filing dated February 10, 2026, Robertson Opportunity Capital disclosed a new stake in MarketAxess (NASDAQ:MKTX) by purchasing 28,830 shares valued at approximately $5.23 million, indicating confidence in the company.
- Asset Allocation Change: This acquisition represents 1.9% of Robertson's 13F reportable assets, highlighting MarketAxess's significance in the portfolio and potentially influencing future investment decisions.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 9, 2026, MarketAxess shares were priced at $171.23, down 13.7% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 28 percentage points, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Despite total sales only inching up 4% in 2025, MarketAxess saw average daily volumes in block trading, portfolio trading, and dealer-initiated trading increase by 29%, 41%, and 32% respectively, indicating significant growth opportunities in the largely untapped bond trading market.
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- Instant Insurance Access: This integration allows travel advisors and travelers to access Arch RoamRight's insurance products immediately when planning their trips, significantly improving customer experience and enhancing trust.
- Enhanced Customer Experience: The incorporation of Arch RoamRight's offerings into Tern's platform provides travelers with a one-stop solution for booking and protection, streamlining the travel planning process and increasing travel advisors' efficiency and client satisfaction.
- Strategic Market Positioning: This partnership not only demonstrates Arch RoamRight's commitment to technological innovation but also indicates its dedication to enhancing customer protection and service quality in the highly competitive travel insurance market.
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- Significant Earnings Growth: Arch Capital generated $1.1 billion in after-tax operating income in Q4 2025, a 26% increase year-over-year, with total after-tax operating income reaching $3.7 billion for the year, showcasing the company's strong performance and profitability in the insurance market.
- Effective Capital Management: The company repurchased $1.9 billion of common stock in 2025, reflecting robust operating cash flows and capital generation capabilities, while book value per share increased by 22.6%, further enhancing shareholder value.
- Strong Insurance Segment Performance: The insurance group reported $119 million in underwriting income for Q4, with gross premiums written increasing by 2%, while the reinsurance segment achieved a record $1.6 billion in underwriting income for the year, indicating solid growth across business segments.
- Optimistic Outlook: Despite increased competition, management expressed measured optimism for 2026, expecting the operating expense ratio to range between 3.9% and 4.5%, demonstrating the company's ongoing focus on cost control and risk management.
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Arch Capital Group Upgraded to Overweight Rating
- Rating Upgrade: Arch Capital Group has received an upgrade to an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: Analysts have set an average price target of $107.15, indicating significant upside potential for the stock price, which may enhance market confidence in the company.
- Market Reaction: This rating upgrade could lead to a short-term increase in stock price, thereby boosting investor buying interest and further driving the company's market capitalization growth.
- Investor Confidence: With the rating elevation, Arch Capital Group is expected to attract more institutional investors, strengthening its competitive position in the insurance and reinsurance markets.
See More
Arch Capital (ACGL) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
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Arch Capital Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Arch Capital reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.98, exceeding expectations by $0.41, indicating robust performance in its insurance and reinsurance segments, although shares only rose by 0.04%.
- Catastrophic Losses: The company faced pre-tax current accident year catastrophic losses of $164 million in its insurance and reinsurance segments, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, highlighting ongoing market risks.
- Reserve Development: Arch Capital experienced favorable development in prior year loss reserves amounting to $118 million, net of related adjustments, showcasing effective risk management and loss control, which enhances financial stability.
- Share Buybacks: The company executed $798 million in share repurchases during Q4, reflecting confidence in its intrinsic value, while the book value per common share reached $65.11 as of December 31, 2025, marking a 4.5% increase from September 30, 2025.
See More
Robertson Opportunity Capital Acquires $5 Million Stake in MarketAxess
- New Investment Disclosure: According to an SEC filing dated February 10, 2026, Robertson Opportunity Capital disclosed a new stake in MarketAxess (NASDAQ:MKTX) by purchasing 28,830 shares valued at approximately $5.23 million, indicating confidence in the company.
- Asset Allocation Change: This acquisition represents 1.9% of Robertson's 13F reportable assets, highlighting MarketAxess's significance in the portfolio and potentially influencing future investment decisions.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 9, 2026, MarketAxess shares were priced at $171.23, down 13.7% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 28 percentage points, reflecting market caution regarding its future growth.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Despite total sales only inching up 4% in 2025, MarketAxess saw average daily volumes in block trading, portfolio trading, and dealer-initiated trading increase by 29%, 41%, and 32% respectively, indicating significant growth opportunities in the largely untapped bond trading market.
See More
Arch RoamRight Partners with Tern to Launch Travel Insurance
- Innovative Collaboration: Arch RoamRight partners with Tern to become the first travel insurance provider to offer products directly through Tern's platform, enhancing purchasing convenience for travel advisors and travelers while solidifying its market leadership.
- Instant Insurance Access: This integration allows travel advisors and travelers to access Arch RoamRight's insurance products immediately when planning their trips, significantly improving customer experience and enhancing trust.
- Enhanced Customer Experience: The incorporation of Arch RoamRight's offerings into Tern's platform provides travelers with a one-stop solution for booking and protection, streamlining the travel planning process and increasing travel advisors' efficiency and client satisfaction.
- Strategic Market Positioning: This partnership not only demonstrates Arch RoamRight's commitment to technological innovation but also indicates its dedication to enhancing customer protection and service quality in the highly competitive travel insurance market.
See More
Arch Capital Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Strong Capital Management
- Significant Earnings Growth: Arch Capital generated $1.1 billion in after-tax operating income in Q4 2025, a 26% increase year-over-year, with total after-tax operating income reaching $3.7 billion for the year, showcasing the company's strong performance and profitability in the insurance market.
- Effective Capital Management: The company repurchased $1.9 billion of common stock in 2025, reflecting robust operating cash flows and capital generation capabilities, while book value per share increased by 22.6%, further enhancing shareholder value.
- Strong Insurance Segment Performance: The insurance group reported $119 million in underwriting income for Q4, with gross premiums written increasing by 2%, while the reinsurance segment achieved a record $1.6 billion in underwriting income for the year, indicating solid growth across business segments.
- Optimistic Outlook: Despite increased competition, management expressed measured optimism for 2026, expecting the operating expense ratio to range between 3.9% and 4.5%, demonstrating the company's ongoing focus on cost control and risk management.
See More
Arch Capital Group Upgraded to Overweight Rating
- Rating Upgrade: Arch Capital Group has received an upgrade to an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: Analysts have set an average price target of $107.15, indicating significant upside potential for the stock price, which may enhance market confidence in the company.
- Market Reaction: This rating upgrade could lead to a short-term increase in stock price, thereby boosting investor buying interest and further driving the company's market capitalization growth.
- Investor Confidence: With the rating elevation, Arch Capital Group is expected to attract more institutional investors, strengthening its competitive position in the insurance and reinsurance markets.
See More
Arch Capital (ACGL) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
Arch Capital Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Arch Capital reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.98, exceeding expectations by $0.41, indicating robust performance in its insurance and reinsurance segments, although shares only rose by 0.04%.
- Catastrophic Losses: The company faced pre-tax current accident year catastrophic losses of $164 million in its insurance and reinsurance segments, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, highlighting ongoing market risks.
- Reserve Development: Arch Capital experienced favorable development in prior year loss reserves amounting to $118 million, net of related adjustments, showcasing effective risk management and loss control, which enhances financial stability.
- Share Buybacks: The company executed $798 million in share repurchases during Q4, reflecting confidence in its intrinsic value, while the book value per common share reached $65.11 as of December 31, 2025, marking a 4.5% increase from September 30, 2025.
See More
