Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis for ACGL stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish momentum in the short term, with price currently at $83.00, down from recent highs around $84.41. The RSI-14 at 37.90 indicates approaching oversold conditions but hasn't reached extreme levels yet. The MACD line (-1.38) below signal line suggests continued downward pressure.

Fundamental Overview

Recent earnings report showed:

• Strong Q4 performance with adjusted EPS of $2.26, beating market expectations
• Revenue of $4.55 billion, exceeding Street forecasts
• 17.1% increase in net premiums written to $3.8 billion
• However, underwriting income fell 12.6% to $625 million due to catastrophe-related losses

Market Sentiment

• Stock has underperformed with only 3.9% gain over past 52 weeks vs S&P 500's 22.3% gain
• Currently trading below mean analyst price target of $114.81, suggesting 30.2% upside potential
• Consensus rating is "Moderate Buy" based on 10 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, 4 Holds, and 1 Strong Sell

Recommendation: SELL Given the technical weakness, underperformance relative to broader market, and recent decline in underwriting income, it would be prudent to exit positions at current levels and wait for better entry points when technical indicators show improvement.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for ACGL stock in 2025:

ACGL is expected to reach $96-98 by end of 2025, representing approximately 8-10% upside from current levels, driven by strong fundamentals in the insurance industry and continued organic growth. The company's recent price weakness presents a buying opportunity, while its solid position in property and casualty insurance sector supports sustained growth.

The prediction is supported by:

1. Technical Analysis: The stock is currently trading near support levels around $88-89, with key resistance at $92.88 (Fibonacci R1) and $94.45 (Fibonacci R2). The oversold RSI reading of 37.90 suggests potential for a technical rebound.

2. Industry Outlook: The insurance sector is expected to benefit from higher interest rates and improving pricing environment in 2025, with ACGL well-positioned to capitalize on these trends through its diversified business model.

3. Valuation: Trading at a forward P/E of 10.11x, below the industry average of 11.72x, indicates room for multiple expansion as the company executes on its growth strategy.

The S1 support level for ACGL Stock is $87.8 ,The R1 resistant level for ACGL Stock is $90.24.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of ACGL Stock was $90.5.

The target price for ACGL Stock according to analyst rating is 115.25, with the highest price target at 141.00 and the lowest at 100.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on ACGL Stock overall.

The market cap of ACGL is $34.0B.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's a concise evaluation of ACGL's valuation:

Valuation Analysis:

• ACGL's current P/E ratio of 6.08x (2023) shows significant improvement from 15.70x in 2022, suggesting the stock is attractively valued compared to historical levels.
• EV/EBITDA of 8.89x (2023) is lower than 13.23x in 2022, indicating better operational efficiency.
• P/B ratio decreased from 1.83x to 1.50x, showing the stock trades at a reasonable multiple to book value.

Financial Performance:

• Revenue grew substantially from $9.86B (2022) to $13.22B (2023)
• Net income tripled from $1.44B to $4.40B
• ROE improved significantly from 11.58% to 29.75%
• Net margin increased from 15.03% to 33.60%

Technical Indicators:

• RSI(14) at 37.90 indicates the stock is approaching oversold territory
• Current price of $88.63 is below all major moving averages (SMA 20/60/200)
• MACD shows bearish momentum with -1.38 reading

Conclusion: ACGL appears undervalued based on its strong financial performance, improved profitability metrics, and conservative valuation multiples. Recent price weakness has created an attractive entry point, with the stock trading below its intrinsic value. The technical indicators suggest a potential bottoming formation, though short-term weakness may persist.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based company, which provides insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance through its subsidiaries. The insurance segment consists of the Company’s insurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including construction and national accounts; excess and surplus casualty; professional lines; programs; property, energy, marine and aviation; travel, accident and health; warranty and lenders solutions, and others (consisting of alternative markets, excess workers' compensation and surety business). The reinsurance segment consists of its reinsurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including casualty; marine and aviation; other specialty; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe, and other (consisting of life reinsurance and other). The mortgage segment includes its United States primary mortgage insurance business, investment and services related to United States credit-risk transfer.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for ACGL stock by 2030:

ACGL stock is projected to reach $135-140 by 2030, representing a 52-58% increase from current levels. This forecast is supported by the company's strong fundamentals including consistent profitability, diversified business model across property, casualty and mortgage insurance segments, and analysts' long-term earnings growth rate projection of 11.2%. The company's recent price weakness presents a buying opportunity given its solid market position and growth trajectory.

The technical analysis shows the stock is currently in a consolidation phase after pulling back from recent highs, suggesting potential for renewed upward momentum as the company executes on its growth strategy.

ACGL has a total of 6400 employees.