Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis of ACGL stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $92.78, showing a slight decline of -0.28% in the last regular trading session. The stock has formed a consolidation pattern between $92-$93.55 with relatively low volume of 1.3M shares.

Fibonacci Analysis Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $95.99 (R1), $97.73 (R2)
• Support: $90.36 (S1), $88.62 (S2)
• Pivot: $93.17

Recent Events Impact The LA wildfires in January 2025 have created significant pressure on insurance stocks. While ACGL saw a 2% decline when this news broke, the impact appears relatively contained compared to primary insurers, though potential losses could reach $17-30 billion for the industry.

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions show a moderately bullish stance:

• Wells Fargo: Buy rating with $107 PT (17.13% upside)
• KBW: Buy rating with $120 PT (32.04% upside)
• Barclays: Hold rating with $100 PT (10.11% upside)
• JP Morgan: Hold rating with $106 PT (15.47% upside)

Recommendation SELL. While ACGL has strong fundamentals and analyst support, the current technical setup shows weakness with RSI at 47.63 indicating neutral momentum. The stock is trading below its 20-day moving average of $92.63, and the recent wildfire losses could pressure near-term performance. Better entry points may emerge if the stock tests the S1 support level at $90.36.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here is the price prediction for ACGL stock in 2025:

ACGL stock is expected to reach $117.31 by end of 2025, representing a potential upside of 22.8% from current levels, driven by strong underwriting performance and favorable reinsurance market conditions. The recent California wildfire losses of $17-30 billion are expected to have a manageable 3-4% impact on ACGL's book value per share, which could create near-term price volatility but ultimately lead to improved pricing power. The company's diversified business model and strong capital position should help maintain industry-leading returns despite catastrophic events.

The S1 support level for ACGL Stock is $90.36 ,The R1 resistant level for ACGL Stock is $95.99.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of ACGL Stock was $92.78.

The target price for ACGL Stock according to analyst rating is 117.92, with the highest price target at 141.00 and the lowest at 100.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on ACGL Stock overall.

The market cap of ACGL is $34.9B.

Based on the provided data, I'll analyze whether ACGL is overvalued through multiple valuation metrics and recent analyst perspectives.

Valuation Metrics Analysis:

• Forward P/E of 7.14 (Q3 2024) is significantly below industry average
• EV/EBITDA of 9.58 shows reasonable valuation for the insurance sector
• Price-to-Book ratio of 1.87 indicates moderate premium to book value
• Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.50 reflects efficient revenue generation

Financial Performance:

• Strong revenue growth from $3.76B in Q1 2024 to $4.59B in Q3 2024
• Healthy ROE of 31.63% in Q3 2024 demonstrates efficient capital utilization
• Net margin of 21.53% in Q3 2024 shows solid profitability
• Total equity increased from $19.36B to $22.27B over three quarters

Recent Analyst Views: Recent analyst actions suggest moderate upside potential:

• Wells Fargo: $107 PT with Buy rating (Jan 2025)
• Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: $120 PT with Buy rating (Jan 2025)
• Barclays: $100 PT with Hold rating (Jan 2025)
• JP Morgan: $106 PT with Hold rating (Jan 2025)

Conclusion: ACGL is NOT overvalued. The company's strong financial metrics, reasonable valuation multiples, and positive analyst sentiment support this conclusion. The recent California wildfire impact has created temporary pressure but hasn't fundamentally changed the company's strong market position and growth trajectory.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based company, which provides insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance through its subsidiaries. The insurance segment consists of the Company’s insurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including construction and national accounts; excess and surplus casualty; professional lines; programs; property, energy, marine and aviation; travel, accident and health; warranty and lenders solutions, and others (consisting of alternative markets, excess workers' compensation and surety business). The reinsurance segment consists of its reinsurance underwriting units, which offer specialty product lines, including casualty; marine and aviation; other specialty; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe, and other (consisting of life reinsurance and other). The mortgage segment includes its United States primary mortgage insurance business, investment and services related to United States credit-risk transfer.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for ACGL stock by 2030:

ACGL stock is projected to reach $165-175 by 2030, driven by the company's strong market position in insurance and reinsurance sectors, consistent earnings growth trajectory, and strategic expansion in high-value markets. The recent California wildfire losses impact in January 2025 has created a temporary price weakness, but this presents a buying opportunity as the company maintains robust fundamentals and capital position.

The prediction is supported by several key factors:

1. Strong market positioning in property and casualty insurance with consistent premium growth and disciplined underwriting approach.

2. Demonstrated ability to navigate catastrophic events while maintaining profitability, as evidenced by the company's response to recent California wildfire losses.

3. Analyst consensus remains bullish with a "Moderate Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects despite near-term challenges.

ACGL has a total of 6400 employees.