Amazon and Alphabet's AI Spending Plans for 2026 Shock Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 10 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy AMZN?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Massive Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced a capital expenditure plan of $175 billion to $185 billion for 2026, while Amazon plans to spend about $200 billion, which will significantly pressure their free cash flow, potentially bringing Amazon's close to zero or negative.
- Cash Flow Status: Alphabet generated $165 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and is expected to maintain positive free cash flow despite increased spending, whereas Amazon's operating cash flow of $140 billion is not growing as fast, risking negative cash flow.
- Backlog Growth: Alphabet's backlog reached $240 billion, up 55% sequentially, indicating strong demand for AI products; Amazon's backlog also grew by 22% to $244 billion, reflecting robust market demand in the cloud computing sector for both companies.
- Market Reaction: Despite the significant investment potential in AI, the market reacted negatively to both companies' spending plans, leading to stock price declines, which may present buying opportunities for long-term investors considering their strong competitive positions in high-return areas.
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Analyst Views on AMZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMZN stock price to rise
47 Analyst Rating
46 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
Current: 199.600
Low
250.00
Averages
294.69
High
340.00
About AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. provides a range of products and services to customers. The products offered through its stores include merchandise and content it has purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, Ring, Blink, and eero, and develops and produces media content. It serves developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through AWS, which offers a set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning, and other services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to increase capital expenditures to $200 billion by 2026, a 56% rise from $128 billion in 2025, raising investor concerns about the company's financial health, particularly regarding its significant investments in AI infrastructure.
- Accelerating Cloud Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 24% revenue increase in Q4, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, with CEO Andy Jassy noting that the custom chip business has surpassed a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield returns.
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See More
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- Stock Decline: Amazon's stock has dropped 14% year-to-date and has faced a nine-day losing streak, the longest since July 2006, although Wall Street believes the stock is undervalued with a median target price of $285, indicating a potential 43% upside.
- Strong Financial Results: Despite narrowly missing earnings expectations, Amazon reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $213 billion in Q4, driven by robust growth in advertising and cloud computing, highlighting the company's competitive position in rapidly growing markets.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to increase capital expenditures to $200 billion by 2026, a 56% rise from $128 billion in 2025, raising investor concerns about the company's financial health, particularly regarding its significant investments in AI infrastructure.
- Accelerating Cloud Growth: Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 24% revenue increase in Q4, the fastest growth in 13 quarters, with CEO Andy Jassy noting that the custom chip business has surpassed a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, indicating that AI investments are beginning to yield returns.
See More
Amazon's AWS Shows Strong Performance, Stock Recovery Potential
- AWS Growth Acceleration: Amazon's cloud computing platform, AWS, grew at a pace of 24% in Q4, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters, highlighting its critical role in AI model development and enhancing Amazon's competitive position in the market.
- Valuation Pullback Justified: Despite significant revenue and earnings growth, Amazon's stock has declined by approximately 7% since 2025, with its PE ratio dropping to 26.5 times, reflecting a market reassessment of its valuation, potentially providing a reasonable buying opportunity for investors.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for data center construction, which may impact cash flows; however, if AI computing demand continues to grow, this investment will support future business expansion.
- Investor Confidence Recovery: Although the Motley Fool analyst team did not include Amazon in their current best stock picks, analysts believe that Amazon is poised for a stock rebound in 2026, indicating a recovery in market confidence regarding its future performance.
See More
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- Attractive Valuation: Amazon's stock is currently trading at about 26.5 times the 2026 forward P/E ratio, significantly lower than valuations of traditional retailers like Walmart and Costco, indicating a historically cheap valuation that may present a strong buying opportunity for investors.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: With over 1 million robots deployed in its distribution centers, coordinated by the DeepFleet AI model, Amazon has significantly improved delivery speed and operational efficiency, which is driving robust growth in its e-commerce business.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Amazon's high-margin sponsored ad business saw a 22% revenue increase last quarter, becoming a key driver of its operating income growth and showcasing its strong competitive position in the digital advertising space.
- Cloud Computing Market Leadership: Holding the number one market share in cloud computing, Amazon's revenue growth accelerated to 24% in Q4, the highest in over three years, indicating that the company will continue to invest aggressively in response to booming demand for AI infrastructure, with capital expenditures projected to reach $200 billion by 2026.
See More
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- Massive Sell-off: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sold over $545.7 million in stock over nine months, executing 88 sell orders with no purchases, indicating significant concerns about market conditions and investor sentiment.
- Net Worth Decline: Armstrong's net worth plummeted by over $10 billion from a peak of $17.7 billion in July 2025, now standing at $7.5 billion, primarily tied to his 14% stake in Coinbase, reflecting a broader decline in confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
- Analyst Rating Divergence: Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to a 'Buy' with a $303 price target on January 5, citing growth in non-trading revenue as a buffer against market cycles, while JPMorgan cut its target by 27% on Tuesday, highlighting declining trading volumes and softness in crypto prices.
- Price Trend Analysis: Coinbase shares closed down 6% yesterday after breaking critical support at $230-$240, currently testing the $150-$155 zone, and if it fails to reclaim $168-$170, it could face increased technical pressure moving forward.
See More
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- Attractive Valuation: Amazon's stock is currently trading at about 26.5 times the 2026 expected P/E ratio, significantly lower than valuations of traditional retailers like Walmart and Costco, making it one of the cheapest investment opportunities in its history and attracting investor interest.
- Operational Efficiency Gains: With over 1 million robots deployed in its distribution centers and coordinated by the DeepFleet AI model, Amazon has not only increased delivery speed but also significantly enhanced operational efficiency, driving sales growth.
- Advertising Revenue Surge: Amazon's high-margin sponsored ad business saw a 22% revenue increase last quarter, becoming a key driver of its operating income growth and further solidifying its leading position in the global digital advertising space.
- Cloud Computing Market Leadership: Holding the number one market share in cloud computing, Amazon's revenue growth reached 24% in Q4, the highest in over three years, indicating its commitment to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures to meet the booming demand for AI infrastructure.
See More
Strategies to Mitigate Market Risks
- Market Risk Management: In the current highly dangerous market environment, tech giants like Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia are leveraging diversified product lines and innovative technologies to mask underlying market weaknesses, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
- Performance of Tech Giants: These companies exhibit a degree of resilience in financial performance, attracting investor attention despite increased market volatility, indicating their relative safety amid uncertainty.
- Investor Confidence: By maintaining continuous innovation and adaptability, these companies not only retain market share but also enhance investor confidence in the tech sector, reflecting their significance during economic turmoil.
- Future Outlook: Despite facing market challenges, the strategic positioning and financial robustness of these tech giants provide them with strong growth potential in future market recoveries, potentially leading the industry resurgence.
See More
