Airlines Adjust Fares Amid Soaring Fuel Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ALK?
Source: CNBC
- Fuel Surcharge Increase: Cathay Pacific announced it would nearly double fuel surcharges starting March 18, reflecting the pressure on airlines from soaring fuel prices due to the U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran, which may impact consumer travel choices.
- Flight Adjustment Risks: Air New Zealand stated it would suspend its financial outlook and make initial fare adjustments if fuel markets and operating conditions remain unstable, highlighting the vulnerability of airlines in a high fuel price environment, potentially affecting profitability.
- Demand and Pricing Power: Despite rising fuel prices, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby noted that travel demand remains strong, and if this trend continues, airlines may gain more pricing power; however, this will depend on the duration of the conflict.
- Delayed Market Response: Analysts expect airlines to face the most acute financial impact in the next 30-90 days, as they booked yields for flights assuming lower fuel prices, making it difficult to adjust fares quickly, which could lead to earnings hits in the first quarter.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy ALK?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on ALK
Wall Street analysts forecast ALK stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 45.400
Low
63.00
Averages
71.10
High
80.00
Current: 45.400
Low
63.00
Averages
71.10
High
80.00
About ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is engaged in operating airlines. The Company operates through its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Inc., Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., Horizon Air Industries, Inc., and McGee Air Services. The Company's segments include Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo on Boeing 737 (B737), Boeing 787 (B787), Boeing 717 (B717), Airbus A330 (A330), Airbus A321neo (A321neo), and others, throughout North America, Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers scheduled air transportation on E175 jet aircraft for passengers under capacity purchase agreements (CPAs). The Company serves more than 140 destinations throughout North America, Central America, Asia and across the Pacific. The Company provides freight and mail services (cargo) using both freighter aircraft and the bellies of its passenger aircraft.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Release Date: Alaska Air Group is set to announce its Q1 earnings on April 20, drawing significant market attention regarding its financial performance amid ongoing economic challenges.
- Expected Loss: Analysts project a loss of $1.55 per share, indicating persistent challenges within the airline industry that could impact investor confidence and exert downward pressure on the stock price.
- Market Reaction: Despite the anticipated losses, Alaska Air's stock rose by 10.3% following the announcement, reflecting a degree of market optimism regarding the company's potential for recovery.
- Mixed Analyst Ratings: Analysts have mixed ratings on Alaska Air, with some optimistic about its long-term prospects while others remain cautious about its short-term performance, which could lead to increased stock price volatility.
See More
- Earnings Release Preview: Major companies including AGNC Investment Corp., Alaska Air Group, Steel Dynamics, Lynas Rare Earths Limited, and Zions Bancorporation are set to report earnings after Monday's close, which is expected to impact market sentiment.
- Investor Focus: Investors will closely monitor these earnings reports to assess the financial health and growth potential of these companies, particularly in the current economic climate.
- Additional Earnings Announcements: In addition to the major players, companies such as NTST, PAC, WASH, and WTFC are also scheduled to release their earnings after Monday's close, providing further insights into market trends.
- Earnings Season Calendar: Seeking Alpha offers a comprehensive earnings season calendar, assisting investors in tracking upcoming earnings releases to optimize their investment strategies.
See More
- Navy Seizure Incident: President Trump announced the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, leading to a cautious market sentiment as investor concerns about Middle Eastern tensions rise, causing oil prices to increase and potentially impacting consumer spending.
- Oil Price Warning: The Energy Secretary warned that gas prices could remain above $3 per gallon until next year, which would negatively affect consumers already feeling the pinch of high costs, further impacting economic recovery.
- Tech and Finance Intersection: Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, is set for a Senate confirmation hearing, and his close ties to Silicon Valley could change the interaction between tech giants and the Fed, influencing future monetary policy.
- Automotive Dealer Consolidation Trend: Data shows that the top 150 auto dealers in the U.S. increased their market share from 21.2% a decade ago to 27%, reflecting the rise of mega-dealers and the struggles of smaller competitors, potentially leading to significant industry structural changes.
See More
- Navy Seizure Incident: President Trump announced that the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, shifting market sentiment to a defensive stance as investor concerns about Middle Eastern tensions rise, leading to higher oil prices and downward pressure on stock futures.
- Oil Price Warning: Amid fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are rising, with the Energy Secretary warning that gas prices could remain above $3 per gallon until next year, further straining consumers already facing higher costs.
- Tech Ties and Fed: Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, will face confirmation hearings tomorrow, with his close ties to Silicon Valley raising questions about potential access for tech moguls to the Fed, a point of significant market interest.
- Dealer Consolidation: Data shows that the top 150 car dealerships in the U.S. increased their market share from 21.2% a decade ago to 27%, reflecting a trend of consolidation that benefits larger dealers like Lithia Motors and AutoNation.
See More
- Earnings Season Significance: Wall Street is set for a packed earnings season featuring key companies like Capital One and Boeing, with investors eager to glean insights into the economic impact of the Iran war from these reports.
- Capital One Performance Focus: Capital One is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, with market attention on its consumer health metrics and the progress of its acquisitions of Discover and Brex, particularly amid rising economic uncertainties.
- Boeing Earnings Outlook: Boeing is expected to release its earnings report on Wednesday, with market focus on order volumes in both its commercial and defense sectors, as well as free cash flow performance, especially after previous unexpected losses.
- GE Vernova Order Growth: GE Vernova will report alongside Boeing, with first-quarter new orders anticipated to reach $14.4 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase, indicating strong market performance amid rising electricity demand.
See More
- Earnings Announcement: Alaska Air (ALK) is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 20 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$1.55, reflecting a significant 101.3% year-over-year decline, indicating substantial profitability challenges ahead.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $3.29 billion, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase, although this growth is overshadowed by ongoing profitability concerns, highlighting intensified competition and macroeconomic risks in the airline industry.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Alaska Air has exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time, yet recent EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and nine downward revisions, indicating analyst uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Market Analysis: Recent analyst ratings for Alaska Air have been downgraded twice, primarily due to rising oil prices and macroeconomic risks, reflecting market concerns about potential consolidation in the airline industry and the associated uncertainties.
See More











