Airline Stocks Hit Headwinds As Carriers Cut Guidance, ETFs Enter Turbulence
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ALK?
Source: Benzinga
Airline Industry Outlook: Major U.S. airlines like American Airlines, Southwest, and Alaska Air have withdrawn their 2025 forecasts due to economic uncertainty, leading to significant declines in their stock prices and affecting airline-themed ETFs such as JETS, IYT, and XTN.
Investor Sentiment: Despite some strong first-quarter results, the overall sentiment remains cautious as airlines face challenges from domestic demand weakness and geopolitical factors, leaving investors in a holding pattern until clearer economic signals emerge.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy ALK?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on ALK
Wall Street analysts forecast ALK stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 38.480
Low
63.00
Averages
71.10
High
80.00
Current: 38.480
Low
63.00
Averages
71.10
High
80.00
About ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is engaged in operating airlines. The Company operates through its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Inc., Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., Horizon Air Industries, Inc., and McGee Air Services. The Company's segments include Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Hawaiian Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers’ scheduled air transportation on E175 jet aircraft for passengers under capacity purchase agreements (CPAs). The Company serves more than 140 destinations throughout North America, Central America, Asia and across the Pacific. The Company provides freight and mail services (cargo) using both freighter aircraft and the bellies of its passenger aircraft.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US Stocks Rise as Oil Prices Plunge Amid Escalating Iran Tensions
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.62%, the Dow Jones by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.75%, reflecting initial market optimism towards the US peace proposal, although futures later retreated on subsequent news.
- Oil Price Volatility: Following the US's 15-point peace proposal, WTI crude oil prices plummeted over 4%, which could lower inflation expectations and impact energy stocks; however, Iran's rejection of the ceasefire proposal led to a rebound in oil prices.
- Mortgage Applications Decline: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 10.5% in the week ending March 20, with the purchase sub-index down 5.4% and refinancing down 14.6%, indicating pressure on the housing market from high interest rates.
- International Tensions Impact: The International Energy Agency warned that the war in Iran could lead to prolonged disruptions in global supply chains, particularly as energy facilities in the Middle East have been severely damaged, potentially affecting global oil and gas supplies and increasing market uncertainty.
See More
BMO Initiates Coverage on Alaska Air with Outperform Rating
- Coverage Initiation: BMO Capital Markets has initiated coverage on Alaska Air Group (ALK) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $50, indicating a recognition of long-term profit improvement potential despite limited visibility into immediate energy prices.
- Strategic Framework: Analyst Michael Goldie highlighted that Alaska Air is executing a clear strategic framework, which includes the integration of Hawaiian Airlines, reducing leverage, and transitioning into an international airline, all of which are expected to enhance profitability.
- Cost Normalization Outlook: While visibility into when costs will normalize is limited, Goldie believes that management is effectively executing its strategy, suggesting that costs will eventually stabilize, leading to improved financial performance.
- Price Potential: The BMO analyst team sees potential for Alaska Air's stock to rise to $70 if market conditions become more favorable, with the current share price at $38.59, reflecting a decline of over 25% since the onset of the Iran conflict and rising oil prices.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates from Tuesday
- Apple Services Strength: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform based on a survey of 3,500 smartphone users indicating continued strength in Apple Services like Apple TV, with both engagement and monetization trending higher, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in its services ecosystem.
- Ralph Lauren Brand Elevation: Citi upgrades Ralph Lauren from neutral to buy, citing management's brand elevation efforts that have driven strong performance, with a projected 6.5% sales CAGR and over 350bps EBIT margin expansion by FY26, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
- Ecolab Investment Opportunity: JPMorgan upgrades Ecolab from neutral to overweight, noting that the stock has declined since February 27 amid rising Middle East tensions, while the broader market is down 4%, suggesting a buying opportunity for investors anticipating a rebound.
- AI Infrastructure Market Outlook: Bank of America initiates coverage of Nebius Group with a buy rating and a $150 price target, highlighting the company's differentiated offering in the rapidly growing AI Infrastructure-as-a-Service market, expected to benefit from sustained demand for AI computing.
See More
BMO Begins Coverage of Alaska Air Group Inc with Outperform Rating and $50 Target Price
Company Overview: Alaska Air Group Inc. has initiated coverage with a performance rating.
Target Price: The target price for the stock is set at $50.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Plunge Over 10%
- Oil Price Plunge Fuels Market Surge: US stocks rallied sharply with the S&P 500 up 1.15%, the Dow Jones up 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.22%, as President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, alleviating geopolitical tensions and boosting investor sentiment.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.33%, providing support for equities as concerns over inflation pressures eased, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
- Mixed International Market Reactions: While US markets surged, European markets showed mixed results, with the Eurozone consumer confidence index dropping to a nearly 2.5-year low of -16.3, indicating economic uncertainty that may affect future investment strategies.
- Strong Performance from Tech Stocks: The so-called
See More
Oil Price Plunge Boosts Stock Market Gains
- Market Surge: The S&P 500 rose by 2.10%, the Dow Jones by 2.30%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.19%, indicating a strong market response to the sharp drop in oil prices, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability.
- Oil Price Drop: Crude oil prices plummeted over 10% after President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which will lower fuel costs for airlines and cruise lines, thereby boosting their profit margins.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.34%, reflecting reduced market concerns about inflationary pressures, which supports further stock market gains.
- International Tensions: Productive talks between Trump and Iran may lead to an end to the Middle East conflict, with the International Energy Agency reporting severe damage to over 40 energy sites across nine countries, potentially causing long-term disruptions to global supply chains.
See More
US Stocks Rise as Oil Prices Plunge Amid Escalating Iran Tensions
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.62%, the Dow Jones by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.75%, reflecting initial market optimism towards the US peace proposal, although futures later retreated on subsequent news.
- Oil Price Volatility: Following the US's 15-point peace proposal, WTI crude oil prices plummeted over 4%, which could lower inflation expectations and impact energy stocks; however, Iran's rejection of the ceasefire proposal led to a rebound in oil prices.
- Mortgage Applications Decline: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 10.5% in the week ending March 20, with the purchase sub-index down 5.4% and refinancing down 14.6%, indicating pressure on the housing market from high interest rates.
- International Tensions Impact: The International Energy Agency warned that the war in Iran could lead to prolonged disruptions in global supply chains, particularly as energy facilities in the Middle East have been severely damaged, potentially affecting global oil and gas supplies and increasing market uncertainty.
See More
BMO Initiates Coverage on Alaska Air with Outperform Rating
- Coverage Initiation: BMO Capital Markets has initiated coverage on Alaska Air Group (ALK) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $50, indicating a recognition of long-term profit improvement potential despite limited visibility into immediate energy prices.
- Strategic Framework: Analyst Michael Goldie highlighted that Alaska Air is executing a clear strategic framework, which includes the integration of Hawaiian Airlines, reducing leverage, and transitioning into an international airline, all of which are expected to enhance profitability.
- Cost Normalization Outlook: While visibility into when costs will normalize is limited, Goldie believes that management is effectively executing its strategy, suggesting that costs will eventually stabilize, leading to improved financial performance.
- Price Potential: The BMO analyst team sees potential for Alaska Air's stock to rise to $70 if market conditions become more favorable, with the current share price at $38.59, reflecting a decline of over 25% since the onset of the Iran conflict and rising oil prices.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates from Tuesday
- Apple Services Strength: Evercore ISI reiterates Apple as outperform based on a survey of 3,500 smartphone users indicating continued strength in Apple Services like Apple TV, with both engagement and monetization trending higher, suggesting enhanced competitiveness in its services ecosystem.
- Ralph Lauren Brand Elevation: Citi upgrades Ralph Lauren from neutral to buy, citing management's brand elevation efforts that have driven strong performance, with a projected 6.5% sales CAGR and over 350bps EBIT margin expansion by FY26, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
- Ecolab Investment Opportunity: JPMorgan upgrades Ecolab from neutral to overweight, noting that the stock has declined since February 27 amid rising Middle East tensions, while the broader market is down 4%, suggesting a buying opportunity for investors anticipating a rebound.
- AI Infrastructure Market Outlook: Bank of America initiates coverage of Nebius Group with a buy rating and a $150 price target, highlighting the company's differentiated offering in the rapidly growing AI Infrastructure-as-a-Service market, expected to benefit from sustained demand for AI computing.
See More
BMO Begins Coverage of Alaska Air Group Inc with Outperform Rating and $50 Target Price
Company Overview: Alaska Air Group Inc. has initiated coverage with a performance rating.
Target Price: The target price for the stock is set at $50.
See More
US Stocks Surge as Oil Prices Plunge Over 10%
- Oil Price Plunge Fuels Market Surge: US stocks rallied sharply with the S&P 500 up 1.15%, the Dow Jones up 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.22%, as President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, alleviating geopolitical tensions and boosting investor sentiment.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.33%, providing support for equities as concerns over inflation pressures eased, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
- Mixed International Market Reactions: While US markets surged, European markets showed mixed results, with the Eurozone consumer confidence index dropping to a nearly 2.5-year low of -16.3, indicating economic uncertainty that may affect future investment strategies.
- Strong Performance from Tech Stocks: The so-called
See More
Oil Price Plunge Boosts Stock Market Gains
- Market Surge: The S&P 500 rose by 2.10%, the Dow Jones by 2.30%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 2.19%, indicating a strong market response to the sharp drop in oil prices, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability.
- Oil Price Drop: Crude oil prices plummeted over 10% after President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which will lower fuel costs for airlines and cruise lines, thereby boosting their profit margins.
- Bond Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.44% to 4.34%, reflecting reduced market concerns about inflationary pressures, which supports further stock market gains.
- International Tensions: Productive talks between Trump and Iran may lead to an end to the Middle East conflict, with the International Energy Agency reporting severe damage to over 40 energy sites across nine countries, potentially causing long-term disruptions to global supply chains.
See More
