Middle East Tensions Rise; Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum; Major Financial Reports Released.

Global Market Outlook: "Extreme Tug-of-War" Ahead

In the coming week, global markets are expected to enter a phase of "extreme tug-of-war."

Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. President Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for approximately 20% of global oil trade. The outcome will significantly impact energy costs and inflation expectations. If the blockade continues, Brent crude oil prices may remain above $100 per barrel, heightening global inflation risks.

Earnings Reports

Next week marks a "super week" for earnings in both Hong Kong and U.S. markets, with major tech companies like Meituan, Pinduoduo, and Xiaomi set to report their results.

• Xiaomi Group (01810.HK): Focus on automotive gross margins and new model plans for 2026.

• Pinduoduo (PDD): Expected highlights include narrowing losses in cross-border business and growth in e-commerce.

• Meituan (03690.HK): Market will watch for competitive defense costs in local services and the breakeven point for instant retail.

Economic Indicators

Key economic indicators include Japan's CPI data and the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, which may signal shifts in monetary policy amid geopolitical pressures.

Industry Forums and Discussions

Several significant forums will take place, including the Boao Forum and the Zhongguancun Forum, focusing on regional cooperation and technological innovation.

• Boao Forum: Scheduled for March 24-27, with themes around green development and regional collaboration.

• Zhongguancun Forum: Emphasizing deep integration of technology and industry innovation.

Upcoming Earnings and Economic Data

• March 23: Huawei's product launch event.

• March 24-27: Boao Forum.

• March 26-27: G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting, addressing energy supply and regional security.

• March 20: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data release.

Conclusion

The upcoming week is poised to be pivotal for both geopolitical developments and corporate earnings, with significant implications for market dynamics. Investors should stay alert to these evolving situations.