Gold prices stabilize; CPI data release tonight; Trump urges Iran deal; Roku and Applied Materials surge.

Trump: The U.S. "Must" Reach an Agreement with Iran

On February 12, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, warning that the situation could become "very serious" otherwise. He emphasized his willingness to negotiate for as long as necessary and indicated that failure to reach an agreement would lead to a "second phase," which would be very difficult for Iran.

Key Points

• Trump claims that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "never said" to stop negotiations.
• He warned of rapid developments in the situation within the next month.
• The agreement must be "very fair and very good."

Russia's Proposal to Re-Embrace the Dollar

A leaked internal document from Russia reveals that the Kremlin is proposing to "re-embrace the dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. This proposal outlines seven potential economic interests between the U.S. and Russia, contingent on a resolution to the Ukraine conflict.

Implications

• A return to the dollar settlement system would signify a major policy reversal for Russia.
• This could lead to a significant reshaping of the global financial landscape.

New York Fed Report: Consumers Bear Tariff Costs

The New York Federal Reserve reported that U.S. consumers and businesses have borne nearly 90% of the costs from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contradicting earlier claims that foreign entities would absorb these costs. The average tariff rate rose from 2.6% to 13% last year.

Statistics

• From January to August, the U.S. absorbed 94% of tariff impacts.
• In November, this figure was 86%.

Gold Prices Stabilize Amid Market Sell-Off

After a significant drop in gold prices due to widespread market sell-offs, gold stabilized around $4920 per ounce. Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Market Context

• The sell-off was exacerbated by fears regarding AI's impact on corporate profits.
• Strong employment data has reduced the urgency for the Fed to cut rates again.

Danish Pension Fund Considers Reducing U.S. Exposure

Denmark's second-largest pension fund, ATP, is reevaluating its investment risks in the U.S. and may reduce its exposure to the private market. The CEO stated that while the U.S. has performed well, sustainability is in question.

U.S. Home Sales Experience Largest Drop in Four Years

The National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 3.91 million in January, marking an 8.4% month-over-month decline, the largest since April 2022.

Factors Influencing Sales

• Severe winter weather likely delayed many contract closings.
• The housing affordability index has improved, but remains below pre-pandemic levels.

U.S. Stock Market Declines

All three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. Notable declines were seen in major tech stocks, including Apple and Tesla.

Stock Performance

• Apple fell 5%, marking its worst single-day performance since April.
• Most Chinese concept stocks also saw declines.

Silver Prices Plummet, Defensive Stocks Rise

Silver futures dropped about 10%, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Defensive stocks like Walmart and Coca-Cola saw gains as investors sought stability.

Major Earnings Reports

• Albemarle reported a net loss in Q4 despite a revenue increase.
• FedEx exceeded earnings expectations for Q3.
• Roku and McDonald's reported strong earnings, with Roku's platform business driving growth.

Hong Kong Stock Market Activity

On February 12, southbound funds net purchased HK stocks worth 4.567 billion HKD, with Tencent receiving significant inflows.

Notable Transactions

• Tencent received over 1.4 billion HKD in net purchases.
• WuXi Biologics faced net sell-offs.

Semiconductor Industry Insights

SMIC reported that demand for memory and BCD technologies is outpacing supply, leading to price increases.

BYD Surpasses Ford in Global Sales

BYD's projected sales for 2025 exceed Ford's, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese automaker.

Upcoming Economic Data

The U.S. will release January CPI data at 21:30 Beijing time, which is expected to influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's actions.

Key Events

• Moderna will report earnings before the U.S. market opens.
• New listings include沃尔核材 and 海致科技集团 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.