Polish Analyst Claims Bitcoin "Supercycle" is Over as Traditional Bear Market Indicators Appear
Supercycle Narrative Declared Dead: Analyst Phil Konieczny argues that Bitcoin's recent decline confirms a classic bear market phase, dismissing the previously popular "supercycle" theory as Bitcoin trades around $85,000 after a 28% drop.
Historical Cycle Patterns: Konieczny highlights that Bitcoin's market peaks have occurred earlier in each cycle, reinforcing the idea of a four-year cyclical behavior tied to halving events, with current market conditions showing extreme bearishness.
Market Fragility and Altcoin Risks: Despite expectations, Bitcoin's dominance has decreased, indicating simultaneous declines in both Bitcoin and altcoins, with many altcoins suffering significant losses and presenting high investment risks.
Macroeconomic Challenges: Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including an inverted yield curve and rising consumer debt, are constraining cryptocurrency recovery, while ETF flows have failed to provide necessary support amid broader economic downturns.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 36142.556 | 48071.278 | 60412.576 | 72341.298 | 84682.596 | 96611.318 | 108952.616 |
| Fibonacci | 48071.278 | 57342.426 | 63070.15 | 72341.298 | 81612.446 | 87340.17 | 96611.318 |
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