Bitcoin Falls Below One-Year Average, Bear Market Signals Emerge

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Jan 02 2026

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Technical Confirmation: Julio Moreno highlighted Bitcoin's sustained move below its one-year moving average, alongside weakening metrics in network activity and liquidity, indicating a shift into a bear market that could undermine investor confidence.
Price Trend Analysis: Bitcoin opened 2025 near $93,000, peaked at approximately $126,080, but ended the year at $88,500, demonstrating weakened market momentum that may influence future investment decisions.
Cautious Market Expectations: Data from Polymarket reveals traders assign only a 21% probability for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 before 2026, reflecting a cautious sentiment that could lead to capital outflows from the cryptocurrency.
Bear Market Structural Stability: While Bitcoin may drop to between $56,000 and $60,000, this decline is viewed as relatively mild compared to historical drops of 70% to 80%, potentially attracting long-term investors seeking stability in the market.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 4 technical signals, shows that 2 indicators are flashing buy, while 2 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	56096.342	60677.776	64887.132	69468.566	73677.922	78259.356	82468.712
Fibonacci	60677.776	64035.858	66110.484	69468.566	72826.648	74901.274	78259.356

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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