TX Should I Buy
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Ternium SA (TX) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor seeking long-term growth at this time. The stock lacks positive momentum, faces significant macroeconomic and company-specific challenges, and has been downgraded by analysts. Additionally, the financial performance in the latest quarter shows declining revenue and net income, which does not align with a strong long-term growth narrative.
The MACD is positive and expanding, indicating mild bullish momentum. However, the RSI is neutral at 46.797, and moving averages are converging, suggesting no strong trend. The stock is trading near its pivot point of 38.343, with resistance at 39.457 and support at 37.229. Overall, the technical indicators do not present a compelling buy signal.
The gross margin increased by 37.81% YoY in Q4 2025, which is a positive sign for operational efficiency.
Analysts have downgraded the stock, citing concerns over USMCA renegotiation delays and persistent U.S. steel tariffs.
Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed a significant drop in revenue (-2.61% YoY), net income (-56.58% YoY), and EPS (-57.14% YoY).
Stock trend analysis indicates a likelihood of negative returns in the short term (-0.47% next day, -2.25% next week).
In Q4 2025, Ternium's revenue dropped by 2.61% YoY to $3.775 billion, net income plummeted by 56.58% YoY to $122 million, and EPS fell by 57.14% YoY to $0.06. Despite these declines, gross margin improved by 37.81% YoY to 16%, indicating better cost management.
Recent analyst actions include a downgrade by Scotiabank to Sector Perform with a $40 price target, citing limited upside and macroeconomic challenges. Wells Fargo also lowered its price target to $33, maintaining an Underweight rating. JPMorgan remains optimistic with an Overweight rating and a price target increase to $44. Overall, the sentiment is mixed but leans negative.
