TX Should I Buy
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Ternium SA (TX) is not an immediate buy for a beginner, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. While the technical indicators show a neutral to slightly bullish trend, the lack of significant positive catalysts, weak financial performance in the latest quarter, and mixed analyst ratings suggest waiting for a clearer entry point or stronger signals.
The technical indicators show a neutral to slightly bullish trend. The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, indicating a mild bullish momentum. RSI is neutral at 52.744, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). Key support and resistance levels are at Pivot: 42.576, R1: 43.879, S1: 41.274, R2: 44.684, S2: 40.469.
Goldman Sachs raised the price target to $49 with a Buy rating, and BofA upgraded the stock to Buy, citing strong North American flat steel pricing and a potential 10% free cash flow yield post-2027.
Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed significant declines, with revenue down -2.61% YoY, net income down -56.51% YoY, and EPS down -57.14% YoY. Scotiabank downgraded the stock, citing limited upside and concerns over U.S. tariffs and delayed benefits from investments in Mexico.
In Q4 2025, revenue dropped to $3.77 billion (-2.61% YoY), net income dropped to $122.2 million (-56.51% YoY), and EPS dropped to $0.06 (-57.14% YoY). However, gross margin improved to 15.99% (+37.73% YoY).
Analyst ratings are mixed. Goldman Sachs and BofA have Buy ratings with price targets of $49 and $46, respectively. JPMorgan also maintains an Overweight rating with a $44.50 price target. However, Wells Fargo and Scotiabank have less favorable views, with Underweight and Sector Perform ratings, respectively, and concerns over trade barriers and oversupply risks.
