SNCY Should I Buy
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Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc (SNCY) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this time. The stock is currently in a downtrend with negative technical indicators, weak financial performance, and no significant positive catalysts to support a strong upward move. While the stock is oversold, it lacks immediate triggers for a reversal, and analysts' ratings suggest limited upside potential.
The stock is in a clear downtrend with a -3.03% regular market change and a -2.91% pre-market change. The MACD is negative and expanding downward, RSI is at 12.902 indicating oversold conditions, and moving averages are converging. Key support levels are at $16.692 and $15.549, with resistance at $18.54 and $20.389. The stock is trading near support but lacks momentum for a reversal.
Sun Country Airlines has extended its flight sales schedule through December 15, 2026, and is relaunching service from Eau Claire, WI to Las Vegas, which could improve customer engagement and revenue in the long term.
The stock is pricing in a high likelihood of a merger with Allegiant at $18.47 per share, limiting upside potential. Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed a significant drop in net income (-39.38% YoY) and EPS (-37.50% YoY), which raises concerns about profitability. Analysts have downgraded the stock, and the market sentiment is weak.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 7.89% YoY to $280.96M, but net income dropped significantly by -39.38% YoY to $8.15M. EPS also declined by -37.50% YoY to $0.15. Gross margin improved slightly to 55.19%, up 0.58% YoY, but overall profitability metrics are concerning.
Analysts have mixed views. TD Cowen recently raised the price target to $22 from $18 but maintains a Hold rating. Earlier, TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing a high likelihood of merger approval with Allegiant. Susquehanna upgraded the stock to Positive with a price target of $20, citing margin expansion potential, but this is a longer-term outlook.
