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RIO Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
86.640
1 Day change
0.99%
52 Week Range
101.530
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/27
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Rio Tinto PLC is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has some positive developments, such as partnerships and investments, the technical indicators, options data, and analyst ratings suggest a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. The stock's pre-market decline and lack of strong trading signals further support a hold recommendation.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is negative and contracting (-0.538), indicating bearish momentum. RSI at 38.384 is in the neutral zone, showing no clear signal. Moving averages are converging, suggesting indecision in price direction. Key support and resistance levels are Pivot: 86.788, R1: 90.1, S1: 83.476, R2: 92.146, S2: 81.43. Pre-market price is $84.88, down 1.06%, near the first support level.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The Open Interest Put-Call Ratio of 0.92 indicates a slightly bullish sentiment, while the Option Volume Put-Call Ratio of 1.23 suggests bearish short-term sentiment. Implied volatility is high at 38.09, with an IV percentile of 92.43, indicating elevated uncertainty.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
6
Buy
4

Positive Catalysts

  • Rio Tinto has partnered with the Queensland and Commonwealth Governments to invest A$2 billion in the Boyne aluminum smelter, securing its future competitiveness. Additionally, the company signed an agreement with LCL Resources for exploration activities in the Ono Project, which could lead to future growth opportunities.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Temporary closure of Amrun and Andoom bauxite mines due to a tropical cyclone has impacted production and supply chains. Analysts have downgraded the stock, citing risks from Middle East events, valuation concerns, and seasonal headwinds in iron ore. The stock has also faced reduced price targets from multiple firms.

Financial Performance

No financial data available for analysis.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have turned increasingly neutral or bearish on Rio Tinto. JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight, citing risks and a new downside scenario for copper and iron ore. Goldman Sachs and Barclays also downgraded the stock, citing valuation concerns and seasonal headwinds. Bernstein lowered its price target but maintained an Outperform rating, while RBC Capital and Freedom Capital provided mixed views on the stock's outlook.

Wall Street analysts forecast RIO stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RIO stock price to fall
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 85.790
sliders
Low
68
Averages
83.7
High
129.5
Current: 85.790
sliders
Low
68
Averages
83.7
High
129.5
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Neutral
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-03-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-03-20
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane lowered the firm's price target on Rio Tinto to 7,030 GBp from 7,220 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
2026-03-09
Reason
JPMorgan
Dominic O'Kane
Price Target
2026-03-09
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane downgraded Rio Tinto to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of 7,220 GBp, down from 7,840 GBp. The firm says events in the Middle East bring risks that are not adequately discounted into the shares of European metals and mining stocks. The analyst reversed JPMorgan's previously positive view on the group and turns negative. It introduced a downside scenario for copper and iron ore as a new base case.
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