NEXA Should I Buy
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Nexa Resources SA (NEXA) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. While the company has shown some positive operational improvements, such as increased zinc production and revenue growth, the technical indicators and financial performance suggest caution. The stock is currently in a pre-market decline, with no strong trading signals or significant positive catalysts to justify immediate action. A hold is recommended until clearer upward momentum or stronger long-term growth signals emerge.
The MACD is negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 37.61, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). However, the pre-market price is down 1.23%, and the stock is near its key support level of 11.252, suggesting potential downside risk.
Additionally, it reduced net debt by $96 million, improving net leverage to 1.7x. Operational improvements, such as the installation of the fourth tailings filter, are on schedule.
The company experienced a negative free cash flow of $105 million in 2025 and a significant YoY drop in net income (-1445.89%) and EPS (-1400%). The MACD's bearish signal and pre-market price decline further add to the negative sentiment.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 22% YoY to $903 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $300 million. However, the company had a negative free cash flow of $105 million for the year, and its net income and EPS saw significant declines in 2025/Q3.
Analyst ratings are mixed. BofA raised the price target to $9 but maintained an Underperform rating. JPMorgan raised the target to $7.50 with a Neutral rating, while Scotiabank raised it to $14.50 with a Sector Perform rating. Analysts are cautious, reflecting uncertainty in the stock's near-term performance.
