MEOH Should I Buy
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Methanex Corp (MEOH) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. While there are some positive catalysts, the financial performance, recent insider activity, and technical indicators suggest caution. The stock is better suited for monitoring rather than immediate investment.
The MACD is negative and expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 41.864, showing no clear signal. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the stock is trading below the pivot level of 59.287, suggesting resistance ahead. Key support is at 52.915, and resistance is at 65.658.
Tight methanol supply due to Middle East disruptions could support higher spot prices in the short term.
OCI Chemicals B.V. recently sold a significant number of shares, reducing its stake. Financial performance in Q4 2025 was weak, with a significant drop in net income (-296.91% YoY) and EPS (-249.35% YoY). Gross margin also declined sharply (-43.58% YoY).
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 2.09% YoY to $968.81 million. However, net income dropped to -$88.76 million, EPS fell to -1.15, and gross margin declined to 7.38%. These metrics indicate poor profitability and operational challenges.
Recent analyst activity is mixed. UBS and BMO Capital raised price targets to $70 and maintain Buy/Outperform ratings. However, RBC Capital downgraded the stock to Sector Perform, citing valuation concerns and the potential normalization of methanol prices by year-end.
