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DLTR Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
109.990
1 Day change
2.55%
52 Week Range
142.400
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/17
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Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) does not currently present a strong buying opportunity for a beginner investor focused on long-term investment. The technical indicators are bearish, the options sentiment leans slightly negative, and the financial performance shows significant declines in net income and EPS. While there are no major positive catalysts or influential trading activity, the stock's recent price action and analyst ratings suggest a neutral stance.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for DLTR are bearish. The MACD histogram is negative and expanding downward, the RSI is neutral at 31.905, and the moving averages are in a bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its support level of 99.428, with resistance at 104.489. Overall, the trend suggests weakness.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The options data indicates a slightly bearish sentiment, with a higher put-call volume ratio (1.59) and a put-call open interest ratio of 0.92. Implied volatility is moderate, with an IV percentile of 47.6 and IV rank of 44.86.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
5
Buy
8

Positive Catalysts

  • No significant positive catalysts identified. Gross margin increased by 9.38% YoY, which is a minor positive.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Significant declines in net income (-113.69% YoY) and EPS (-114.73% YoY). Traffic has been negative over the past two quarters, and analysts express concerns about deceleration in comparable sales growth.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2026, revenue remained flat YoY at $5.45 billion. However, net income dropped significantly by -113.69% YoY to $506.1 million, and EPS fell by -114.73% YoY to 2.53. Gross margin improved to 39.17%, up 9.38% YoY, but overall financial performance is weak.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed to negative. Recent price target adjustments show a downward trend, with most firms maintaining neutral or underperform ratings. Truist remains optimistic with a Buy rating and a price target of $142, but other firms like Morgan Stanley, Citi, and BofA have lowered their price targets, citing valuation concerns and declining traffic.

Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise
8 Buy
6 Hold
5 Sell
Hold
Current: 107.250
sliders
Low
75
Averages
127.41
High
160
Current: 107.250
sliders
Low
75
Averages
127.41
High
160
Evercore ISI
Michael Montani
In Line
to
Hold
downgrade
$155 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-04-21
New
Reason
Evercore ISI
Michael Montani
Price Target
$155 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-04-21
New
downgrade
In Line
to
Hold
Reason
Evercore ISI analyst Michael Montani lowered the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $150 from $155 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$146 -> $126
2026-03-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$146 -> $126
2026-03-17
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $126 from $146 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Despite improving performance through the Holidays and better prospects for operating leverage, the firm notes that the 2026 outlook implies a deceleration in comps and says "traffic remains a work in progress."
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