ARES Should I Buy
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ARES is a good buy for a beginner-focused, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available. My view is positive because the business is showing strong AUM growth, record fundraising, a solid dividend, and broad Wall Street support despite a recent earnings miss. The stock is not a perfect short-term entry, but based on the data provided it is still a buy right now for a long-term hold.
ARES is in a mildly constructive but near-term stretched setup. Price closed at 124.31, above the pivot at 117.35 and just under resistance at 123.74-127.68, suggesting the stock is testing a breakout zone. MACD remains positive, though the histogram is contracting, which points to slowing momentum rather than a clear reversal. RSI at 70.38 is elevated but still described as neutral in the data, and moving averages are converging, indicating a transition phase. The recent pattern suggests short-term weakness is possible, but the broader setup remains supportive for a long-term buyer.
["AUM increased 18% year over year to $644 billion", "Record $30 billion raised in Q1 2026", "Quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share and 4.65% forward yield", "BofA added ARES to its US 1 List", "Multiple firms kept Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings", "Congress trading data shows 1 purchase and 0 sales in the last 90 days", "Fundraising, deployments, and institutional demand remain strong"]
["Q1 after-tax realized income per share missed consensus", "Fee-related performance revenues were lower than expected", "Several analysts cut price targets after Q1 results", "Options put-call ratios are above 1, signaling cautious sentiment", "Technical momentum is slowing as MACD histogram contracts", "Near-term pattern suggests possible short-term pullback"]
The latest reported quarter was 2025/Q4 in the financial snapshot, where revenue rose 27.68% year over year to 1.77B, showing strong top-line growth. However, net income fell 87.59% and EPS dropped 88.89%, indicating weak bottom-line conversion in that period. More importantly, the most recent Q1 2026 update shows stronger operating momentum in the core business, with record fundraising and AUM growth, even though realized income missed expectations. For a long-term investor, the growth trend in assets and fundraising matters more than the lumpy quarterly earnings miss.
Wall Street is still mostly positive on ARES. BofA kept Buy, Oppenheimer kept Outperform, Barclays kept Overweight, Citizens kept Outperform, Morgan Stanley was Neutral/Equal Weight, and TD Cowen was Hold. Price targets were trimmed across several firms, but the tone remains constructive because analysts are focused on fundraising, deployment, and private credit demand rather than the quarter's earnings miss. The pros view is that ARES has strong fundamentals and attractive valuation versus its history; the cons view is that earnings are lumpy, fee-related revenues can miss, and the stock is still sensitive to macro/private credit sentiment. On balance, Wall Street remains bullish overall.
