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ARCO Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
8.370
1 Day change
3.46%
52 Week Range
8.980
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/19
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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has shown revenue growth, recent earnings missed expectations, and technical indicators do not suggest a clear upward trend. Additionally, there are no strong proprietary trading signals or significant positive catalysts to justify immediate action.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is negative and contracting, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI is neutral at 26.662, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading near its support level (S1: 7.575), but there is no strong indication of a reversal or breakout.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The low put-call ratios suggest bullish sentiment among options traders, but this alone does not confirm a strong buy signal.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
4
Buy
9

Positive Catalysts

  • Revenue increased by 11.4% year-over-year in Q4 2025, and full-year revenue grew to $4.7 billion. Hedge funds and insiders remain neutral, indicating no significant selling pressure.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Q4 GAAP EPS missed estimates by $0.08, and gross margin dropped by 4.42% YoY. The stock has a 50% chance of declining in the short term based on historical candlestick patterns.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, revenue grew by 11.4% YoY to $1.27 billion, but EPS missed estimates. In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 5.22% YoY, and net income surged by 327.19% YoY, but gross margin declined by 4.42% YoY.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

JPMorgan raised the price target to $9 from $8.70 but maintained a Neutral rating, reflecting cautious optimism without a strong buy recommendation.

Wall Street analysts forecast ARCO stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARCO stock price to rise
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 8.090
sliders
Low
8.5
Averages
8.5
High
8.5
Current: 8.090
sliders
Low
8.5
Averages
8.5
High
8.5
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
maintain
$11.50
AI Analysis
2026-03-19
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$11.50
AI Analysis
2026-03-19
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley notes that Arcos Dorados' Q4 EBITDA and net income missed expectations and adjusted for nonrecurring tax credits was an "unexpected" net loss of $1M, voicing the view that shares "should react negatively to results." The firm has an Overweight rating and $11.50 price target on shares, which are down about 1% to $7.64 in Thursday morning trading.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$9
2026-02-13
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$9
2026-02-13
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Arcos Dorados to $9 from $8.70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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