AM Should I Buy
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Antero Midstream Corp (AM) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has shown some positive growth in revenue and EBITDA, the significant decline in net income and EPS, along with insider and hedge fund selling trends, suggests caution. The technical indicators show an overbought condition, and there are no strong proprietary trading signals to support an immediate buy decision. Holding off for now and monitoring the stock for better entry points is recommended.
The stock is in a bullish trend with MACD above 0 and positively expanding, and moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) confirming the upward momentum. However, the RSI of 94.18 indicates the stock is overbought, suggesting a potential pullback. The current price of $20.99 is above the key resistance level of $20.59, with the next resistance at $21.224.
Acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion, adding over 400 undeveloped locations to strengthen competitiveness.
7% EBITDA growth in 2025 and a 30% increase in free cash flow after dividends.
Forecasted EBITDA exceeding $1.2 billion in 2026 with a planned $360 million in free cash flow after dividends.
Significant insider and hedge fund selling, with insider selling up 626.28% in the last month and hedge fund selling up 532.39% in the last quarter.
Decline in net income (-53.36% YoY) and EPS (-52.17% YoY) in Q4
No upward revisions in EPS estimates and two downward adjustments in the last three months.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 3.31% YoY to $297 million, but net income dropped by 53.36% YoY to $51.79 million. EPS also declined by 52.17% YoY to $0.11. Gross margin remained stable at 100%. While revenue growth is positive, the sharp decline in profitability is concerning.
Wells Fargo raised the price target to $20 from $19 but maintained an Equal Weight rating, citing that the current growth outlook is already priced in. No recent upgrades or strong buy recommendations from analysts for AM.
