AM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AM sees a +1.61% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.70% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.07%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
269.87M
2.29%
0.03%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
60.15%
-2.53%
5.25%
Net Margin
36.96%
-0.32%
15.90%
EPS
0.21
5.00%
16.67%
No Data Available
AM Earnings Analysis
Antero Midstream Corporation Common Stock Corporation (AM.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
EBITDA Growth: 1. Increased EBITDA: Antero Midstream generated EBITDA of $256 million in Q3 2024, marking a 2% increase year-over-year.
Free Cash Flow Increase: 2. Significant Free Cash Flow Growth: The company reported free cash flow after dividends of $40 million, which represents a 32% increase from the previous year.
Debt Reduction Strategy: 3. Debt Reduction and Improved Leverage: Free cash flow was fully utilized to reduce absolute debt, resulting in a leverage ratio of 3.1 times as of September 30, 2024, with expectations to decline below three times in Q4.
Free Cash Flow Performance: 4. Consistent Free Cash Flow Generation: Antero Midstream has generated over $350 million in free cash flow after dividends over the last two years, exceeding the $287 million spent on bolt-on acquisitions during the same period.
Capital Expenditure Strategy: 5. Efficient Capital Management: The company invested $56 million in capital expenditures during Q3, which is 35% of its full-year budget, while expecting a significant decline in capital spending in Q4.
Negative
Freshwater Delivery Decline: 1. Decline in Freshwater Delivery Volumes: Freshwater delivery volumes decreased sequentially due to Antero Resources operating only one completion crew, resulting in a significant impact on overall throughput.
Completion Delay Impact: 2. Deferral of Completion Crews: The deferral of completion on one pad from 2024 into 2025 is expected to reduce EBITDA by approximately $10 million, indicating a negative impact on future earnings.
Stagnant Throughput Performance: 3. Flat Throughput Volumes: Throughput volumes remained approximately flat compared to the second quarter, suggesting stagnation in operational performance during the quarter.
Leverage Ratio Increase: 4. Increased Leverage Ratio: As of September 30th, the leverage ratio stood at 3.1 times, indicating a higher debt burden that could affect financial flexibility and future growth.
EBITDA Guidance Concerns: 5. Lower End of Guidance Range: The guidance for 2024 suggests that if Antero Resources defers completions, the company would fall near the lower end of the EBITDA range, reflecting potential underperformance against expectations.
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AM Earning Call Sentiment
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
AM.N
-0.31%Positive
The earnings call summary reflects strong financial performance with EBITDA growth, reduced leverage, and increased free cash flow, positioning the company for capital returns. Despite some risks, like natural gas price volatility and regulatory challenges, the company's strategic debt management and acquisition integration are positive indicators. The Q&A section highlights confidence in reaching leverage targets and growth in 2025. The positive sentiment is reinforced by the expectation of capital returns and the achievement of financial targets, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
