Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/16 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of - and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.59 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
TSMC is expected to deliver a strong earnings beat driven by robust demand for advanced technologies and operational efficiencies.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Revenue
Key Fact Data:
TSMC reported September 2025 revenue of NT$ 330.98B (+ 31.4% YoY), with YTD revenue up ** 36.4% YoY**, driven by sustained demand for 3nm/5nm technologies.
Susquehanna notes "beat and raise" expectations, citing Q4/Q1 tracking "ahead of consensus and seasonal trends" due to AI compute demand.
Collaboration with Cadence Design on AI-driven chip solutions (e.g., TSMC N2 technology) accelerates time-to-market for customers, likely driving incremental orders.
Nvidia ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets to meet China demand, signaling strong near-term shipment volumes.
Risks Mitigated:
- U.S. tariff threats on foreign electronics (Reuters) are partially offset by TSMC’s exemption from tariffs due to U.S. manufacturing plants (Bloomberg).
Gross Margin
Key Fact Data:
TSMC’s phase-out of 6-inch wafers and consolidation of 8-inch production (Reuters) streamline costs.
Higher capacity utilization from AI/HPC demand offsets foreign exchange headwinds (Fact Data: analyst notes on operating leverage).
Cost improvements from partnerships (e.g., Amkor’s Arizona facility for advanced packaging) reduce outsourcing expenses.
EPS
- Operating leverage from revenue growth and cost discipline drives EPS. Susquehanna’s "beat and raise" guidance aligns with upward EPS revisions.
Cash Flow & Inventory
- Strong operational cash flow ($ 2.76T YTD revenue) supports CapEx and dividends, though geopolitical risks (U.S.-China tensions) remain.
- Inventory optimization evident from reduced days of inventory (-NT$ MoM in September) amid stable wafer shipments.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Pre-Earnings Bullish Play: Buy Oct 2025 $310 calls or shares outright.
- Hedge: Pair with Nov 2025 $280 puts (2:1 ratio) to mitigate geopolitical/tariff risks.
- Post-Earnings: Sell upside calls into strength if guidance confirms AI-driven supercycle.
Rationale: Fact data overwhelmingly supports a Strong Beat, but high expectations (24.89% stock outperformance) demand hedging against "sell-the-news" volatility.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
TSM Transcript
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record revenue growth, robust cash flow, and optimistic guidance for AI demand. Despite some concerns on margin dilution and vague responses in the Q&A, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong demand in AI and advanced technologies, coupled with a solid shareholder return plan. The optimistic guidance for AI and technology advancements outweigh potential risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance and optimistic guidance, with a 13% sequential revenue increase and high gross margins. The Q&A section highlights robust AI demand, strategic investments, and expansion plans, despite some uncertainties. These factors, along with a stable shareholder return strategy, suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: strong AI demand and a slight EPS beat are positive, but revenue decline and margin pressure due to external factors (earthquake, overseas expansion) are concerning. Q&A highlighted demand strength but also management's evasiveness on certain risks. No explicit Q2 guidance was given, which can cause uncertainty. The absence of a share repurchase plan and increased inventory days further contribute to a neutral outlook. Without market cap data, a neutral prediction is prudent, considering both positive and negative elements.
The earnings call highlighted strong AI demand and a significant investment plan, but these were offset by a decline in revenue and margins, and vague management responses in the Q&A. The guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a revenue decline, and there was no new partnership announcement or shareholder return plan adjustment. The market is likely to remain cautious, resulting in a neutral stock price movement.
TSM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 16, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 0.00 in revenue and an EPS of 3.00 for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Strong Beat forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 16, 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd TSMC is expected to deliver a strong earnings beat driven by robust demand for advanced technologies and operational efficiencies.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade TSM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 16, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
