Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/17 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 919.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.37 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast anticipates a Beat, driven by strong AI demand and strategic partnerships offsetting seasonal weaknesses.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
- AI Demand Offsetting Seasonal Weakness:
Strong AI Momentum: Partnerships with Nvidia/Foxconn on AI supercomputers, SoftBank’s $1T Arizona AI hub, and CEO emphasis on AI demand “exceeding supply” signal sustained revenue upside.
Smartphone Seasonality Mitigation: Susquehanna’s checks suggest AI wafer shipments are balancing weaker smartphone demand, with FX impacts minimizing EPS dilution.
Tax Credit Tailwinds: Proposed U.S. tax credit expansion (25% → 35%) for domestic chipmakers supports TSMC’s Arizona expansion, lowering long-term costs.
- Margin Stability Amid Risks:
Gross Margin: Natural disaster risks (earthquakes) are not highlighted in recent news, while U.S. tariff impacts appear partially offset by pricing power in AI. FX headwinds (stronger TWD) are a drag but likely priced in.
Operating Margin: Cost discipline from delayed adoption of ASML’s high-NA machines and focus on European design centers (Munich) signal efficiency prioritization.
- EPS Leverage:
- Net Income Growth: AI-driven revenue upside and tax incentives outweigh tariff/FX risks. Lack of significant share buyback mentions in Fact Data reduces EPS tailwinds but does not negate top-line strength.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options Play: Buy August $240 calls (delta 0.6+) to capture upside from AI-driven revenue beat. Hedge with August $220 puts (delta 0.3-) for geopolitical/FX risk. 2. Stock: Accumulate on dips below $225 (support near 50-day moving average). 3. Caution: Avoid short-term volatility plays; high EPS estimate revisions (355%↑) imply elevated expectations. Rationale: Fact data supports AI-driven revenue upside, but high embedded expectations (55% stock outperformance vs. S&P) limit asymmetric upside. Neutral margin outlook justifies hedging.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
TSM Transcript
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record revenue growth, robust cash flow, and optimistic guidance for AI demand. Despite some concerns on margin dilution and vague responses in the Q&A, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong demand in AI and advanced technologies, coupled with a solid shareholder return plan. The optimistic guidance for AI and technology advancements outweigh potential risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance and optimistic guidance, with a 13% sequential revenue increase and high gross margins. The Q&A section highlights robust AI demand, strategic investments, and expansion plans, despite some uncertainties. These factors, along with a stable shareholder return strategy, suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: strong AI demand and a slight EPS beat are positive, but revenue decline and margin pressure due to external factors (earthquake, overseas expansion) are concerning. Q&A highlighted demand strength but also management's evasiveness on certain risks. No explicit Q2 guidance was given, which can cause uncertainty. The absence of a share repurchase plan and increased inventory days further contribute to a neutral outlook. Without market cap data, a neutral prediction is prudent, considering both positive and negative elements.
The earnings call highlighted strong AI demand and a significant investment plan, but these were offset by a decline in revenue and margins, and vague management responses in the Q&A. The guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a revenue decline, and there was no new partnership announcement or shareholder return plan adjustment. The market is likely to remain cautious, resulting in a neutral stock price movement.
TSM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 17, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 919.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 17, 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd The earnings forecast anticipates a Beat, driven by strong AI demand and strategic partnerships offsetting seasonal weaknesses.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade TSM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 17, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd FY2025Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
