Ford Motor Co (F) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Ford Motor Co (F) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/23 16:05:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 43.86B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.38 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Ford's Q3 earnings are likely to miss expectations due to production disruptions, recall costs, and EV segment losses.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Analysis:
- Revenue Headwinds:
Supply Chain Disruptions: The Novelis aluminum plant fire (Oct 8–Oct 14) will disrupt production of critical models like the F-150 Lightning and SUVs. Novelis supplies 40% of U.S. auto-industry aluminum, and Ford is its largest customer. This could lead to lower Q3 vehicle deliveries, offsetting the 8.2% U.S. sales growth reported in October.
Recalls: Multiple recalls (59k vehicles for fire hazards on Oct 16; 115k trucks for steering defects on Sept 24) will increase warranty costs and damage brand trust.
- EBIT Pressure:
EV Segment Losses: Ford Pro’s growth (+11% YoY) is overshadowed by Model e’s losses, exacerbated by weakening EV demand (CEO Farley projects a 50% drop post-tax credit expiration). Job cuts in Germany’s EV plant (Sept 16) signal ongoing struggles.
Tariff Uncertainty: While the White House tariff easing (Oct 17) could reduce input costs, Ford faces conflicting pressures from Trump’s proposed heavy-truck tariffs (Sept 25) and lobbying battles (Oct 3).
- EPS Risks:
- Production Delays: The halt in F-150 Lightning production (Oct 8) and temporary model reductions (Oct 14) will limit high-margin vehicle sales. Analyst downgrades (BofA, Wells Fargo) cite slower margin improvement at Ford Pro.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short-Term Bearish Options: Buy November $11 puts to hedge against downside from production disruptions.
- Long-Term Opportunistic Play: Monitor Ford Pro’s partnership with ServiceTitan (Sept 8) for signs of margin stabilization; consider long calls if aluminum supply recovers post-Q3.
- Avoid EV Exposure: Divest from Ford’s EV segment until clearer Model e turnaround signals emerge.
Rationale: Near-term headwinds (supply chain, recalls) outweigh tariff relief and Ford Pro’s growth. Market expectations (7.5% stock outperformance vs. S&P 500) set a high bar, increasing downside risk if execution falters.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
F Transcript
The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: strong financial metrics with improved warranty costs and Ford Credit EBT, but weak guidance due to Novelis and chip issues. The Q&A further highlights production and political risks, and management's vague responses on key issues add uncertainty. Positive elements like strong Ford Blue pricing and strategic mix optimization are counterbalanced by potential Q4 EBIT impacts. Overall, the combination of positive and negative factors suggests a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed outlook: strong financial metrics and positive developments in manufacturing, product launches, and market share. However, the suspension of full-year guidance and challenges from tariffs present uncertainties. The Q&A section reveals cautious optimism but highlights potential risks, such as tariff impacts and competitive pressures in certain segments. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, with positive aspects offset by significant uncertainties, resulting in a neutral stock price prediction.
F Slides
F Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ford Motor Co FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Ford Motor Co (F) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 23, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Ford Motor Co FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 43.86B in revenue and an EPS of 0.38 for Ford Motor Co's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Ford Motor Co FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forFord Motor Co's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 23, 2025. Ford Motor Co Ford's Q3 earnings are likely to miss expectations due to production disruptions, recall costs, and EV segment losses.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade F Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 23, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Ford Motor Co FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
