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The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiment. The company reported strong financial metrics with accelerated profit growth and expanding margins, alongside optimistic guidance for future growth. Product development initiatives, AI integration, and strategic reorganization are highlighted as key growth drivers. Additionally, the management's focus on shareholder returns through growth and innovation supports a positive outlook. Despite some unclear responses, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
Gross Profit Grew 27% year-over-year to $2.91 billion in the first quarter, driven by accelerating growth in both Cash App and Square.
Adjusted Operating Income Increased 56% year-over-year to $728 million or 25% margin, reflecting strong operational performance.
Adjusted EBITDA Reached $1 billion, representing an all-time high on a dollar and margin basis.
Adjusted Diluted EPS Grew 52% year-over-year to $0.85, reflecting strong profitability.
Cash App Gross Profit Grew 38% year-over-year in the first quarter, driven by accelerating growth in both Commerce Enablement and Financial Solutions.
Cash App Monthly Transacting Actives Grew 4% year-over-year, with inflows per transacting active up 10% year-over-year and primary banking actives growth of 18% year-over-year to $9.7 million.
Square Gross Profit Grew 9% year-over-year in the first quarter, with GPV growth accelerating to 13% year-over-year. On a constant currency basis, GPV grew 11.5% year-over-year.
International GPV Grew 35% year-over-year or 26% on a constant currency basis, reflecting strong international performance.
Food and Beverage Sellers GPV Growth Accelerated to 21% year-over-year, reflecting the strongest growth rates since Q1 2023.
Mid-Market Sellers GPV Growth Accelerated to 22% year-over-year, reflecting the strongest growth rates since Q1 2023.
Neighborhoods GPV Expanded to sellers representing $320 million in annualized GPV, up 190% since December.
Moneybot and Managerbot: Moneybot is now live across Cash App, and Managerbot is available to over 1 million sellers, with plans to reach all Square sellers by June.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Expansion: Introduced Afterpay Pre-Purchase for Cash App Card users and expanded BNPL to peer-to-peer transactions and Cash App Pay.
Cash App Score: Rolled out Cash App Score to make underwriting capabilities more visible and actionable for customers.
Square Register: Launched the next generation of Square Register with new features to save time and help sellers grow their businesses.
Square Bitcoin Payments: Expanded Bitcoin payments into retail and services.
International GPV Growth: International GPV grew 35% year-over-year (26% on a constant currency basis), reflecting strong growth in international markets.
Neighborhoods Expansion: Neighborhoods expanded to sellers representing $320 million in annualized GPV, up 190% since December.
AI Integration: AI tools like Moneybot and Managerbot are improving internal operations, increasing velocity, quality, and automation. Production code changes per engineer increased 2.5x from January to April.
Non-Engineer Contributions: Production code changes by non-engineers increased nearly 60% from January to April, showcasing broader internal engagement.
High ROI Investments: Increased investments in high ROI areas across Square and Cash App to drive growth.
Guidance Update: Raised full-year outlook for gross profit, adjusted operating income, and adjusted diluted EPS, reflecting strong Q1 performance and higher expectations for the year.
Macroeconomic Conditions: Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including changes in macroeconomic conditions, which could materially impact results.
Regulatory Risks: Products offered through Square Financial Services or bank partners are subject to regulatory scrutiny and compliance requirements.
Seasonal Trends: Expected seasonal sequential decline in primary banking actives in Q2 versus Q1, which could impact growth metrics.
Interest Expense: Projected interest expense of $200 million to $210 million for the full year 2026 could affect financial performance.
Foreign Exchange (FX) Impact: Tougher comparisons for GPV growth and FX starting in the second quarter could impact financial results.
Supply Chain and Tariff Issues: Onetime tariff refund related to Square hardware indicates potential supply chain or tariff-related challenges.
Full-Year 2026 Financial Guidance: Gross profit is expected to reach $12.33 billion, representing 19% year-over-year growth, up 1 percentage point from prior expectations. Adjusted operating income is projected at $3.34 billion, with margin expectations also up 1 percentage point. Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted at $3.85, reflecting a 62% year-over-year increase. The company aims to exit 2026 with a mid-teens gross profit growth rate, consistent with long-term guidance.
Q2 2026 Financial Guidance: Gross profit is projected at $3.04 billion, representing 20% year-over-year growth. Adjusted operating income is expected to be $740 million, reflecting 35% growth and 2 points of margin expansion year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted at $0.86, a 39% year-over-year increase.
Square GPV Growth: The company expects to accelerate GPV growth in 2026 compared to 2025. In April, Square GPV grew 12% in constant currency, with U.S. GPV growing 9% year-over-year and international GPV growing 25% in constant currency. Gross profit is expected to grow roughly in line with GPV growth in the second half of the year.
Cash App Growth: The company anticipates low single-digit actives growth for the remainder of 2026, with continued year-over-year growth in primary banking actives. Healthy inflows per active and monetization rates are expected to persist, with underwriting outcomes in line with expectations.
Interest Expense and Tax Rate: Q2 interest expense is expected to range between $55 million and $60 million, with full-year interest expense projected at approximately $200 million to $210 million. A mid-20% non-GAAP effective tax rate is anticipated for both Q2 and the full year 2026.
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The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiment. The company reported strong financial metrics with accelerated profit growth and expanding margins, alongside optimistic guidance for future growth. Product development initiatives, AI integration, and strategic reorganization are highlighted as key growth drivers. Additionally, the management's focus on shareholder returns through growth and innovation supports a positive outlook. Despite some unclear responses, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Strong financial metrics with revenue, gross profit, and net income growth suggest positive performance. However, workforce reduction and macroeconomic uncertainties pose risks. The lack of guidance on dividends or buybacks further tempers enthusiasm. The absence of clear Q&A responses also adds to uncertainty. The overall sentiment is balanced by positive financial results and potential operational risks, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
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