Based on the provided data and current market context, here's an analysis of Tesla's valuation:
Technical Analysis
Tesla's stock is showing bearish signals with RSI at 41.47 indicating neutral to slightly oversold conditions. The stock is trading below both its 20-day (384.57) and 60-day (392.12) moving averages, suggesting a downward trend. The MACD is negative at -14.93 with a negative histogram, indicating bearish momentum.
Valuation Metrics
Tesla appears significantly overvalued based on multiple metrics:
- P/E ratio increased from 34.02 (2022) to 57.73 (2023)
- EV/EBITDA jumped from 21.36 (2022) to 56.57 (2023)
- P/S ratio rose from 5.25 (2022) to 8.95 (2023)
- P/B ratio increased from 8.72 (2022) to 12.64 (2023)
Market Position
The stock is currently trading around the Fibonacci support level of 333.96, with the next major support at 317.70. The Bollinger Band analysis shows the stock trading at 33% of its range (BBP_20_3 = 0.33), suggesting potential further downside risk.
Conclusion
Tesla appears significantly overvalued based on both fundamental metrics and technical indicators. The substantial increase in valuation multiples from 2022 to 2023, coupled with weakening technical signals, suggests the stock is priced above its intrinsic value.