Netflix Q1 Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Fall
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:Among this weekend's most notable new streaming content is the first three episodes of "Margo's Got Money Troubles", a new dramedy starring Elle Fanning, Michelle Pfeiffer and Nick Offerman on Apple TV. Meanwhile, Netflixsubscribers can binge all eight episodes of "Beef", a dark comedy anthology series led by Carey Mulligan and Oscar Isaac for the second season. Additionally, AmazonPrime Video users can watch "American Gladiators", a reboot of the 90's game show where amateur athletes compete against professional gladiators.NETFLIX FALLS AFTER Q1 EARNINGS:Shares of Netflix fell after the company reported first quarter earnings and gave a forecast for Q2 that underwhelmed Wall Street just months after it lost out on a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.On Thursday, Netflix reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.23 on revenue of $12.25B, which compared to analyst estimates of 77c and $12.17B, respectively. The company said the Q1 EPS beat was driven by operating income and a $2.8B termination fee related to the Warner Bros. transaction. Netflix guided to Q2 EPS of 78c on revenue of $12.57B, which compared to analyst consensus of 84c and $12.64B, respectively. The company also forecast FY26 revenue of $50.7B-$51.7B, which compares to analyst estimates of $51.38B. Additionally, Netflix announced that co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings will not stand for re-election to the board of directors.Following the report, Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Netflix to $110 from $115 and kept an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The earnings stock reaction "points to the risk with expectations set up which may persist beyond the short term," the analyst said.JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating on Netflix with a $118 price target. The firm recommended buying the shares on the selloff. JPMorgan understands that some investors will be disappointed with no increase to the 2026 outlook despite the Q1 upside. Netflix indicated that price increases for the year are already factored into the initial 2026 guidance for revenue growth of 12%-14%, the analyst said. JPMorgan believes Netflix "continues to execute well, with considerable growth headroom."Meanwhile, Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Netflix to $115 from $103 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm noted the company reported an in line Q1 2026 print with revenues and EBIT both 1% above Piper's estimates. Management reiterated 2026 guidance which sent the stock 10% lower after market. While results weren't flashy, the firm said Netflix appears refocused on the core with some adjacent initiatives like ads growing well.Additionally, Morgan Stanley said it would "buy the dip" in Netflix following the company's Q1 report with numbers not moving much, noting that firm nudged up its FY27 EPS forecast to $3.87 and that it finds "valuation compelling for a compounder with pricing power." While the Q2 guidance and lack of FY26 raise drove shares lower in after-hours, the firm thinks these are explained by the timing of U.S. price hikes and some conservatism early in the year, added the analyst, who kept an Overweight rating and $115 price target on Netflix shares.WRITERS, ACTORS, DIRECTORS OPPOSE WARNER DEAL:Over 1,000 writers, actors and directors released a letter on Monday opposing Paramount Skydance'sacquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The letter states in part, "As filmmakers, documentarians, and professionals across the movie and television industry, we write to express our unequivocal opposition to the proposed Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger. This transaction would further consolidate an already concentrated media landscape, reducing competition at a moment when our industries- and the audiences we serve - can least afford it. The result will be fewer opportunities for creators, fewer jobs across the production ecosystem, higher costs, and less choice for audiences in the United States and around the world. Alarmingly, this merger would reduce the number of major U.S. film studios to just four. Our industry is already under severe strain, in large part due to prior waves of consolidation. We have witnessed a steep decline in the number of films produced and released, alongside a narrowing of the kinds of stories that are financed and distributed. Increasingly, a small number of powerful entities determine what gets made-and on what terms - leaving creators and independent businesses with fewer viable paths to sustain their work."Additionally, The UK's Competition and Markets Authority said it is seeking views on the anticipated acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. "The CMA has not yet launched its formal investigation into this transaction. This invitation to comment is the first part of the CMA's information-gathering process," the agency said.ROKU SURPASSES 100M STREAMING HOUSEHOLDS:Rokuannounced Thursday it has surpassed 100 million streaming households worldwide. Roku announced it has surpassed 100 million streaming households worldwide, a major milestone that highlights the company's scale and momentum. "Surpassing 100 million streaming households is a defining moment, not just for Roku, but for the future of television," said Anthony Wood, CEO. "We're helping shape the entertainment landscape by making it easier to discover great content, more affordable to watch it, and more effective for advertisers and partners around the world to connect with audiences. We are deeply grateful to our viewers, teams, advertisers, and partners for helping us reach this milestone. And as the shift to streaming continues to accelerate, we're more energized than ever to lead the evolution of television."Baird raised the firm's price target on Roku to $130 from $120 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model after the company surpassed 100M streaming household milestone.Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Roku to $140 from $135 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q1, the firm is raising its FY26 Platform revenue growth estimate to 18.5% year-over-year from 18% and its Platform margin estimate to 51.8% from 51.5% on strengthening ads trends and political contribution, the analyst said.MAGNITE, AMC GLOBAL MEDIA ENTER COLLABORATION:Magniteannounced Wednesday a collaboration with AMC Global Mediato extend the company's unified linear and streaming offering to buyers programmatically. Enabled by ClearLine, Magnite's activation and curation solution, advertisers will be able to buy AMC's TV content through a single access point. Magnite's expanded collaboration with AMC Global Media gives buyers a clearer path to reach millions of engaged viewers across the company's linear networks, FAST channels and AMC+ flagship streaming service. The company is also leveraging Magnite's Live Scheduler solution to optimize its live linear addressable inventory.FREEWHEEL LAUNCHES CONTEXT ENGINE:Comcast'sFreeWheel announced Tuesday the launch of Context Engine, a new AI-driven feature within FreeWheel's Streaming Hub that helps advertisers align ads to relevant premium video content. "Contextual advertising is an increasingly important lever for performance and monetization in premium video. Yet the high cost of implementation has limited adoption at scale for many publishers," said Larry Allen, VP of Global Strategy Addressable, Data, and Measurement, FreeWheel. "Context Engine solves these challenges, providing smarter ad alignment and stronger brand safety to drive higher engagement for advertisers, and enabling publishers to activate premium contextual signals in weeks versus months."STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the space include Disney, Foxand FuboTV.
