General Motors Expects FY26 EPS of $11-$13
General Motorsis scheduled to report quarterly results before market open on Tuesday, April 28, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am EST, while Fordis scheduled to report after market close on Wednesday, April 29, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm EST. What to watch for:GM SALES:In April, GMa decline of 9.7% compared with the same period a year earlier. "GM expects a similar decline for the industry as a whole. Year-over-year comparisons are significantly skewed by an exceptionally high selling rate in March of 2025, when industry-wide sales soared to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than 18 million units... General Motors led the U.S. auto industry in sales for the first quarter, as momentum in March helped results partially recover from a slower January and February, when winter storms impacted the market," the company stated. "We saw showroom traffic and sales steadily improve after January's storms and March was a much stronger month. We are well positioned for the future because of our operating discipline and the compelling value we offer, from affordable SUVs to premium vehicles and trucks," said Duncan Aldred, GM Vice President and President of North America. The company also announced, that along with its joint ventures, it delivered nearly 350,000 vehicles in China in Q1 as newly launched products achieved solid performance.GM GUIDANCE:Along with its Q4 earnings, the company guided to a FY26 EPS view of $11.00-$13.00. Consensus, which stood at $11.83 at the time, has since risen to $12.25. The company also forecast FY26 EBIT-adjusted view of $13B-$15B and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9B-11B. On its earnings conference call, GM also guided to Q1 tariff impact of $750M-$1B and FY26 tariff impact of $3B-$4B.GM PARTNERSHIPS, INITIATIVES:In January, GM announced it was "streamlining public charging," stating that the company's vehicle owners now can find, charge, and pay at more than 5,000 Electrify America fast-charging stations. Additionally in January, the company announced a $30M investment for its Fairfax assembly plant workforce. In February, the company announced a C$63M investment in Oshawa Assembly. Also in February, Lithium Americasprovided a project update for 2025 and 2026 capex guidance and 2026 project development milestones for its Thacker Pass project, a joint venture with GM. The company said it was targeting a capex range of $1.3B-$1.6B for Thacker Pass Phase 1 for FY26 and continued to target mechanical completion of the Thacker Pass Phase 1 processing plant in late 2027. In March, GM announced U.S. Chevrolet, Buick and GMC certified used vehicle sales programs will come together to merge under one platform CarBravo. Additionally in March, V2Xannounced the extension of its partnership with GM. The automaker also announced it was advancing automated technology to supervised testing on public roads in March.ANALYST VIEW:In April, Deutsche Bank upgraded GM to Buy from Hold with a price target of $90, up from $83, following the recent pullback in shares. The near-term volatility can be attributed to geopolitical developments, said the analyst, whose thesis is built on the resilience that GM has demonstrated multiple times in recent years. The firm views recent weakness as an "attractive entry point to gain exposure to a potential multi-year re-rate story," the analyst said.Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on GM to $91 from $104 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. Auto OEMs and suppliers are expected to deliver in-line to softer results this quarter due to rising input costs and weak Q1 auto sales in China, the analyst said. In contrast, industrial tech companies should report solid performance and guidance, supported by improving industrial trends and strong data center demand, the firm saidAdditionally, UBS raised the firm's price target on GM to $105 from $102 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. A positive outlook on GM ahead of earnings is driven by the potential for a beat and results at the high end of guidance, supported by IEPPA benefits and underlying trends that appear solid even excluding them, the analyst said. Concerns about volumes in the second half of 2026 are limited, particularly given reasonable inventory levels, UBS added.FORD SALES:In February, Ford reported, including a 25% year-over-year decrease in electrified vehicles to 14,228 units and a 2.3% decrease in internal combustion vehicles to 121,134 units. In March, Ford reported February total U.S. vehicle sales of 149,962, down 5.5% from 158,675 in the same month of last year. Ford reported total U.S. electrified vehicle sales of 14,132, down 37.7% year-over-year in February, and internal combustion sales of 135,830 vehicles, down 0.1% year-over-year. In April, Ford reported Q1 total sales of 457,315 vehicles, including estimated retail share growth of 0.2 percentage points to 11.6% for Q1. "Powered by double-digit growth in Ford's high margin large SUVs and F-Series' leadership as America's No. 1 truck, Ford delivered a higher first quarter retail share amid a shifting industry landscape. Ford's strategic shift toward high-margin SUVs like Expedition and Explorer lifted its estimated retail market share to 11.6% - a 0.2 percentage point increase. This gain was achieved even as the company managed the planned sunsetting of the Escape and Lincoln Corsair. Total sales declined 8.8%, reflecting these transitions and a particularly strong industry performance in March 2025, making for a difficult year-ago comparison. Ford will enter the second half of the year with a more focused, high-demand product mix as F-Series inventory normalizes, and the Explorer and Bronco family gain further momentum," Ford said.FORD GUIDANCE:Along with its Q4 results, Ford guided to FY26 adjusted EBIT of $8B-$10B. The company said, "For full-year 2026, Ford anticipates company adjusted EBIT of $8B to $10B; adjusted free cash flow of $5B to $6B; and capital expenditures of $9.5B to $10.5B, including around $1.5B to begin ramping Ford Energy. At the segment level, the EBIT outlook for Ford Pro is $6.5B to $7.5B; Ford Blue is $4B to $4.5B; and a loss of $4B to $4.5B for Ford Model e. Ford Credit EBIT is expected to be about $2.5B." Additionally on its earnings conference call, Ford guided to Q1 EBIT of "flat sequentially" with company planning to approach a "more normalized" EBIT in Q2.FORD PARTNERSHIPS, INITIATIVES:In January, Ford announced the appointment of Lisa Drake as president of Ford Energy and plans to launch a battery energy storage systems business. In March, Ford announced a new long-term agreement with Bread Financialto launch a co-branded credit card and installment loan program. Additionally in March, the company announced an agreement to become the Official Automotive Partner of Major League Baseball, with a presence across the league. Ford also announced Ford Pro AI in March, an intelligent fleet assistant that takes the millions of data points vehicles generate and turns them into actionable insights.ANALYST VIEW:TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Ford to $14 from $15 and kept a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the autos space as part of a Q1 preview. Automakers look better positioned than suppliers to offer investors outlook "reassurances and retaining guidance credibility," the analyst said. TD believes guide-down risk is low.UBS upgraded Ford to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $15. The firm sees a "credible path" to Ford earning over $2 in earnings per share in 2027, or 17% above consensus. Beyond 2027, Ford should head towards $3 in earnings per share power driven by its product portfolio, a "more lenient" U.S. regulatory backdrop, and a "more pragmatic" electric vehicle strategy, the analyst said. UBS believes concerns over higher gasoline prices and higher aluminum prices are overdone in Ford shares.
