Should You Buy Varonis Systems Inc (VRNS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
30.570
1 Day change
-8.50%
52 Week Range
63.900
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
Varonis Systems Inc (VRNS) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at the moment. The stock is facing significant legal challenges, insider selling, and bearish technical indicators. Despite some positive analyst ratings and improving financial metrics, the lack of strong trading signals and the potential for further downside in the short term make it prudent to hold off on investing for now.
Technical Analysis
The stock's technical indicators are mixed to bearish. The MACD histogram is positive and expanding, suggesting some bullish momentum. However, the RSI is neutral, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 34.099, with key resistance at 35.533 and support at 32.666. Pre-market price is down 2.72%, indicating potential weakness.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
The low put-call ratios suggest a bullish sentiment in the options market, but the overall trading volume is relatively low, limiting the reliability of this signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are increasing their positions, with a 170.88% increase in buying over the last quarter.
Analysts have maintained positive ratings, with multiple 'Buy' and 'Overweight' ratings, citing strong SaaS growth and AI-driven demand.
Financial performance shows YoY improvement in revenue (+9.12%), net income (+63.32%), and EPS (+62.50%).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Significant insider selling, with a 2043.14% increase in the last month.
Multiple class action lawsuits alleging securities fraud and financial transparency issues.
Gross margin dropped by 6.61% YoY, and the company is still operating at a net loss (-$29.94M in Q3 2025).
Stock trend analysis predicts a 70% chance of further declines (-3.5% in the next day, -19.16% in the next week, -18.22% in the next month).
Financial Performance
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 9.12% YoY to $161.58M, net income improved by 63.32% YoY to -$29.94M, and EPS rose by 62.50% YoY to -$0.26. However, gross margin dropped by 6.61% YoY to 78.25%. While the financials show improvement, the company remains unprofitable.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analysts are generally positive on VRNS, with multiple firms maintaining 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings. However, price targets have been lowered across the board, reflecting cautious optimism. The average price target is in the $40-$50 range, suggesting potential upside from the current price of $34, but concerns about AI-driven disruption and macroeconomic factors persist.
Wall Street analysts forecast VRNS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VRNS is 52.18 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 80 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast VRNS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VRNS is 52.18 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 80 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 33.410
Low
37
Averages
52.18
High
80
Current: 33.410
Low
37
Averages
52.18
High
80
JPMorgan
Brian Essex
Overweight
maintain
$62 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Brian Essex
Price Target
$62 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex lowered the firm's price target on Varonis to $50 from $62 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 report. The report be an :important catalyst that could provide investors with better confidence in the health" of the company's software-as-a-service business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Varonis' "kitchen sinked" fiscal 2025 annual recurring revenue guidance "looks very achievable." it cites recent peer multiple contraction for the target cut.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$44 -> $41
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$44 -> $41
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Varonis (VRNS) to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $41, down from $44. The firm sees an "increasingly competitive" data security market for Varonis, particularly from Microsoft (MSFT). As such, Varonis shares lack catalysts for a sustainable positive re-rating in the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley wants to see more evidence of traction for Varonis' selling its broader platform before again recommending the shares.
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