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USFD Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
88.960
1 Day change
-3.47%
52 Week Range
102.130
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/13
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US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The company's strong financial performance, consistent growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS, positive analyst sentiment, and strategic acquisitions make it a solid choice for long-term investment despite neutral technical indicators and insider selling activity.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is negative (-0.812) but contracting, indicating a potential reversal. RSI is neutral at 50.56, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. Key support is at 88.007, and resistance is at 95.547. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a neutral trend.

Options Data

Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The high open interest put-call ratio (1.88) indicates bearish sentiment, but the lower option volume put-call ratio (0.74) suggests short-term bullish sentiment. Implied volatility is at 29.07, with an IV percentile of 76.49, indicating options are relatively expensive.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
5
Buy
7

Positive Catalysts

  • Strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 3.26% YoY, net income up 178.79% YoY, and EPS up 192.86% YoY.

  • Positive analyst sentiment with multiple price target upgrades (e.g., UBS raised to $117, Citi to $118).

  • Hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions, with buying up 842.15% last quarter.

  • Strategic acquisitions like Shetakis to enhance market position.

  • Long-term growth projections: 5% CAGR in net sales, 10% in adjusted EBITDA, and 20% in adjusted EPS from 2025 to 2027.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Insiders are selling, with a 107.74% increase in selling activity over the last month.

  • Neutral technical indicators with no clear bullish signal.

  • Valuation concerns raised by Piper Sandler, which downgraded the stock to Neutral due to limited upside potential.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, US Foods reported revenue of $9.8 billion, up 3.26% YoY, net income of $184 million, up 178.79% YoY, and EPS of $0.82, up 192.86% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 11%, and free cash flow increased to $960 million in 2025 from $833 million in 2024.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts are overwhelmingly positive on USFD, with multiple upgrades and raised price targets. UBS has the highest target at $117, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing valuation concerns. The consensus remains bullish with strong buy and outperform ratings from major firms.

Wall Street analysts forecast USFD stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast USFD stock price to fall
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 92.160
sliders
Low
85
Averages
91
High
95
Current: 92.160
sliders
Low
85
Averages
91
High
95
BTIG
Buy
maintain
$82 -> $110
AI Analysis
2026-02-13
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
$82 -> $110
AI Analysis
2026-02-13
maintain
Buy
Reason
BTIG raised the firm's price target on US Foods to $110 from $82 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered similar fundamental results in Q4 as they have over the past 12-18 months, with modestly weaker case volume more than offset by cost savings and efficiency efforts leading to double-digit adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BMO Capital
Outperform
maintain
$95 -> $115
2026-02-13
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$95 -> $115
2026-02-13
maintain
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on US Foods to $115 from $95 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The company's 2025 performance demonstrated remarkably consistent double-digit EBITDA growth against a softer macro as US Foods was able to outperform against a number of key self-help initiatives, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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