Should I Buy TUSK? TUSK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mammoth Energy Services Inc (TUSK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2.340

1 Day change

52 Week Range

3.170

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now. With no Intellectia buy signals, weak/declining Q3-2025 fundamentals (revenue down YoY, deeper losses, negative gross margin), and a statistically negative near-term pattern bias, TUSK does not offer a compelling entry for an impatient buyer at $2.34. Best stance is HOLD/avoid new entries and wait for either a clear technical breakout above ~$2.40–$2.48 or improved fundamentals/earnings clarity.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Setup: Mildly improving momentum but not a clean uptrend. MACD histogram is slightly positive and expanding (bullish tilt), while RSI(6) ~60 is neutral-to-mildly bullish (not overbought). Moving averages are converging, implying consolidation rather than a strong trend. Key levels: Pivot ~2.277. Near-term resistance is R1 ~2.404 then R2 ~2.482; price at 2.34 is below the first resistance band, so upside is immediately capped unless it breaks and holds above ~2.40. Support levels: S1 ~2.149 and S2 ~2.071. Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern model indicates a 60% chance of downside with estimated moves of -1.74% (next day), -1.21% (next week), -0.57% (next month), which argues against chasing now. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Open interest is strongly call-skewed (put/call OI ratio 0.18), and today’s volume was call-only (put volume 0; put/call volume ratio 0.0). That leans bullish/speculative. Volatility/pricing: Implied vol (30D) is extremely elevated (~168.5) and in a high percentile (IV percentile ~90), indicating options are expensive and the market is pricing large moves. This often aligns with speculative positioning but is not automatically bullish for the stock; it can also imply event risk and higher probability of reversals. Liquidity/flow: Today’s option volume (25) is above recent averages (today vs 30D avg ~147%), but absolute volume is still small, consistent with a micro-cap name where single prints can distort ratios.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Technicals show early bullish momentum (positive/expanding MACD) and call-heavy options positioning suggests traders are leaning to upside.
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-06 pre-market) can serve as a catalyst if results or outlook improve meaningfully.
Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no recent heavy selling pressure indicated in the provided trend summary).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Fundamentals are deteriorating: Q3 2025 revenue down YoY, losses widened, EPS fell, and gross margin is negative—this is a major headwind for sustained upside.
No Intellectia AI Stock Picker or SwingMax buy signal to justify a fast entry for an impatient buyer.
Near-term statistical pattern favors downside (60% probability with negative expected moves across day/week/month).
High IV indicates the market expects large moves; if earnings or guidance disappoint, downside can be sharp.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalyst currently driving demand).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $14.80M, down ~13.2% YoY (shrinking top line). Net income: -$12.62M, down ~47.53% YoY (losses deepening). EPS: -0.26, down ~48% YoY. Gross margin: -7.74% (negative and substantially worse YoY), indicating poor cost absorption/contract economics. Overall: weakening growth trends and profitability metrics are not supportive of a confident buy today.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target changes were provided in the dataset, so there is no confirmed recent Wall Street upgrade/downgrade trend to lean on. Wall Street-style pros (based on provided data): call-skewed options positioning; early technical momentum; earnings as a potential reset catalyst. Wall Street-style cons: shrinking revenue, widening losses, negative gross margin, micro-cap risk profile, and lack of clear institutional/insider accumulation signals. Politician/congress trading: no recent congress trading data available and no politician trades were provided.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TUSK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TUSK is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy