Should I Buy TMDX? TMDX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

138.970

1 Day change

-1.43%

52 Week Range

156.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term investment horizon and $50,000-$100,000 available. The company's strong financial growth, positive analyst ratings, and dominance in its niche market outweigh the minor pre-market dip and lack of recent trading signals. The stock's current price of $135.3 presents a reasonable entry point given its upward potential, supported by analysts' price targets and the company's robust growth trajectory.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators are mixed but lean slightly positive. The MACD is above zero and positively contracting, suggesting mild bullish momentum. The RSI of 44.084 is neutral, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and the stock is near its support level (S1: 133.468), providing a potential buying opportunity. However, the stock has a 70% chance to decline slightly (-1.34%) in the next day but shows potential for minor gains in the next week (+0.81%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The low put-call ratios indicate a bullish sentiment in the options market, with more interest in calls than puts. Implied volatility (64.67) is moderate, and the IV percentile (36.4) suggests the stock is not at extreme volatility levels.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue up 32.24% YoY, net income up 476.83% YoY, and EPS up 400% YoY.
Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with multiple buy ratings and price targets ranging from $140 to $170, indicating significant upside potential.
The company is expected to maintain its dominance in the organ transplant market despite new competition.
Bullish moving averages and proximity to support levels suggest a favorable entry point.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Minor pre-market dip (-0.22%) and overall neutral sentiment from hedge funds and insiders.
Slightly lower transplant volume growth in Q4 2025 compared to expectations, though still positive.
Lack of recent trading signals from AI Stock Picker or SwingMax.

Financial Performance

TransMedics delivered exceptional financial results in Q3 2025. Revenue increased by 32.24% YoY to $143.8M, net income surged by 476.83% YoY to $24.3M, EPS rose by 400% YoY to $0.6, and gross margin improved to 58.74%, up 5.17% YoY. These metrics highlight strong growth and operational efficiency.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts are broadly positive on TMDX, with multiple buy ratings and price targets ranging from $140 to $170. TD Cowen views the recent selloff as unwarranted and reiterates a $170 price target, citing the company's competitive edge. Piper Sandler and Needham also express confidence in the company's growth potential, while Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal Weight rating with a $135 price target.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TMDX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TMDX is 147.8 USD with a low forecast of 115 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 140.990

Low

115

Averages

147.8

High

170

Current: 140.990

Low

115

Averages

147.8

High

170

TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$170

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$170

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen says TransMedics shares are under pressure after Bridge to Life's VitaSmart received FDA clearance for liver transplantation. While VitaSmart is "technically competition" to TransMedics' OCS Liver, the system employs a back-to-base model using static cold storage, followed by hyperoxygenated perfusion in a bowl, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, TD does not view VitaSmart as a threat to OCS Liver. Bridge to Life's system is "vastly different" from TransMedics' as it is not portable and does not allow surgeons to utilize biomarkers to assess organ function in the way that OCS Liver does, the firm contends. It continues to think TransMedics will maintain its dominance as new machine perfusion options come to market for liver. The firm views the selloff in shares today as unwarranted and reiterates a Buy rating on TransMedics with a $170 price target. The stock in afternoon trading is down 5% to $134.39.

Piper Sandler

Matt O'Brien

Overweight

maintain

$140

2026-01-02

Reason

Piper Sandler

Matt O'Brien

Price Target

$140

2026-01-02

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Matt O'Brien notes that every month, the firm tracks organ transplant volumes and the number of flights taken by TransMedics' medical jet fleet. Transplant volumes grew low single-digit in Q4 2025 versus Q3 2025. Liver, which the company is closely tied to, showed a strong 4.2% increase quarter-to-date. Piper keeps in mind that the Street is still expecting nearly 10% sequential growth in product sales in Q4 2025, which appears achievable to it based on machine perfusion share gains though room for upside seems limited. While the firm's model implies that service revenues may fall just short of expectations, it is within a reasonable margin of error for potential modest upside. Thus overall, Piper believes the Street's service revenue target is achievable, with modest downside risk and upside potential. The firm has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $140.

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TMDX Should I Buy

TMDX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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