Should I Buy TMCI? TMCI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2.300

1 Day change

-4.17%

52 Week Range

10.790

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this time. The stock's technical indicators are bearish, options data shows a strong bearish sentiment, and analysts have recently downgraded price targets significantly. While the company has shown some revenue growth in its latest quarter, it is overshadowed by negative guidance and declining gross margins. Given the lack of positive catalysts and the absence of Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals, it is advisable to hold off on investing in this stock currently.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for TMCI are bearish. The MACD is slightly positive but contracting, RSI is neutral at 37.574, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its key support level of 2.581, with resistance levels at 2.917 and 3.021. Overall, the stock lacks strong upward momentum.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The options data indicates a bearish sentiment, with a very low open interest put-call ratio of 0.1 and a high option volume put-call ratio of 22.73. Implied volatility is extremely high at 280.62, suggesting significant uncertainty around the stock's future price movements.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

The company reported an 11.37% YoY increase in revenue for Q3 2025, which is a positive sign of growth.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Analysts have significantly lowered price targets and downgraded the stock due to disappointing guidance, negative revenue growth expectations for Q4, and declining adoption of key products like Lapiplasty. Gross margin has also declined by 1.34% YoY, and there are no recent positive news or congress trading data to support the stock.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of $50.21M, up 11.37% YoY. However, net income remains negative at -$16.29M, with a slight improvement of 6.04% YoY. EPS is also negative at -0.26, improving by 4.00% YoY. Gross margin dropped to 79.07%, down 1.34% YoY, indicating some pressure on profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have recently downgraded the stock significantly. Price targets have been lowered across the board, with Truist reducing its target from $4 to $3, UBS from $6.50 to $5.85, and JPMorgan downgrading the stock to Underweight with a target of $5. Analysts cite disappointing guidance, negative revenue growth expectations, and product adoption challenges as key concerns.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TMCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TMCI is 4.87 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 7.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 2.400

Low

Averages

4.87

High

7.5

Current: 2.400

Low

Averages

4.87

High

7.5

Truist

Richard Newitter

Hold

downgrade

$4 -> $3

AI Analysis

2025-12-18

Reason

Truist

Richard Newitter

Price Target

$4 -> $3

AI Analysis

2025-12-18

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst Richard Newitter lowered the firm's price target on Treace Medical to $3 from $4 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing 2026 for MedTech. The firm is more positive on the industry heading into next year given a more attractive relative sector valuation, though it also sees the possibility of it being a "source" vs. a destination of new healthcare investment flows, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds it prefers names with 2026 catalysts fueling durable revenue acceleration or out-of-favor near-term narratives.

Truist

Richard Newitter

Hold

downgrade

$7 -> $4

2025-11-10

Reason

Truist

Richard Newitter

Price Target

$7 -> $4

2025-11-10

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst Richard Newitter lowered the firm's price target on Treace Medical to $4 from $7 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its Q3 results and updated outlook. The guide-down implies a return to negative revenue growth in Q4 as contribution from new osteotomy product launches are masked by incremental share loss in core lapiplasty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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TMCI Should I Buy

TMCI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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