TAK Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TAK performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TAK sees a +1.16% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.54% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.21%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TAK Key Earning Data
TAK Earnings Analysis
Positive
Core Revenue Growth: Fiscal year 2024 core revenue grew 2.8% at constant exchange rate, driven by Growth and Launch Product growth of 14.7%.
Core Operating Profit Growth: Core operating profit for the full year was JPY 1.2 billion, representing growth of 4.9% at constant exchange rate, with a core operating profit margin of 25.4%.
OpEx Savings Impact: Significant OpEx savings from multiyear efficiency programs contributed to core operating profit and margin growth, exceeding original expectations.
Late-Stage Pipeline Progress: Progress in late-stage pipeline with 6 Phase III programs underway, including positive results from rusfertide in polycythemia vera.
Product Portfolio Success: Strong performance in Growth and Launch Product portfolio, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with double-digit growth in several products.
Market Share Leadership Growth: ENTYVIO, despite some challenges, is expected to maintain market share leadership and grow faster than the market due to positive prescriber and patient feedback.
U.S. Investment Commitment: Plans to invest approximately USD 30 billion in the U.S. over the next 5 years, reflecting commitment to the U.S. market.
Promising Revenue Potential: Positive top line results for rusfertide with potential peak revenue of $1 billion to $2 billion, and upcoming regulatory filings for multiple late-stage products.
Strong Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow exceeded forecasts, allowing for dividend increases and share buybacks, with a stable outlook for fiscal year 2025.
Negative
Loss of Exclusivity Impact: Significant generic impact from VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, which affected revenue despite growth in other areas.
Earnings Pressure from Taxes: Core EPS fell slightly short of upgraded guidance due to higher-than-anticipated tax expenses, indicating financial pressure.
Revenue Performance Challenges: ENTYVIO revenue performance was below expectations due to challenges in the U.S. access landscape, leading to slower patient access and reimbursement issues.
Albumin Growth Challenges: Albumin growth was impacted by manufacturing upgrades and lower demand in China, suggesting operational challenges in meeting market needs.
Flat Revenue and Profit Outlook: Fiscal year '25 guidance indicates broadly flat revenue and core operating profit, reflecting ongoing challenges from VYVANSE generics and limited growth prospects.
Tariff Impact Uncertainty: The company does not expect significant tariff impacts, but the uncertainty surrounding tariffs could pose risks to future revenue.
Operating Profit Margin Growth: Core operating profit margin growth was achieved despite gross margin pressure from VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, indicating underlying financial strain.
TAK FAQs
How does TAK typically perform around its earnings report dates?
TAK's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +1.16% change leading up to the report and a -1.54% change in the 10 days following the release.
