Should You Buy Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
407.690
1 Day change
-8.71%
52 Week Range
457.840
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Buy STX now. Despite the sharp -8.71% regular-session drop, the broader technical structure remains bullish (stacked rising moving averages) and fundamentals/Street revisions are strongly positive after a standout 2026/Q2. With price still above the key pivot support (~383), the selloff looks more like a volatility reset than a trend break, which fits an impatient “buy-now” approach.
Technical Analysis
Trend is still bullish but cooling short-term. The moving averages are firmly bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the primary trend remains up. MACD histogram is positive (9.845) but “positively contracting,” implying upside momentum is fading and consolidation/pullbacks are possible. RSI(6) at ~61 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Key levels: Pivot support ~383 (important hold level); resistance R1 ~435 then R2 ~468. At ~407 post-market, STX is above pivot and below R1—constructive for a buy-the-dip entry, but expect choppiness near-term.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is mixed-to-slightly bullish tactically but hedged structurally. Open interest put/call at 1.15 suggests heavier put positioning (more hedging or cautious longer-dated positioning). However, put/call by volume at 0.72 shows calls leading today’s flow (more near-term bullish trading). Implied volatility is very elevated (30D IV ~68.95; IV percentile ~97), indicating the market is pricing large moves and uncertainty—often seen around major catalysts/earnings or after big gaps.
HAMR execution and hyperscaler/nearline cloud demand: repeated in analyst notes as a durable driver.
Positioning tailwind: Hedge funds are buying, with buying amount up ~221% over the last quarter.
Sector read-through: tech/semis/storage earnings tone (e.g., Western Digital excitement, Micron strength) supports a constructive backdrop for storage names.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term tape risk: the stock just fell ~-8.71% in the regular session, signaling elevated volatility and potential further digestion.
Valuation concern flagged by UBS (Neutral): stock may be discounting a prolonged upcycle already.
Options show meaningful hedging (OI put/call 1.
and extremely high IV—market is not relaxed about near-term swings.
Congress trading: only sales (0 buys, 2 sells) in the last 90 days suggests cautious behavior from that cohort.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2. Results show strong acceleration: Revenue $2.825B (+21.51% YoY), Net Income $593M (+76.49% YoY), EPS $2.6 (+67.74% YoY). Gross Margin 41.63% (up +19.22% YoY) indicates meaningful margin expansion—consistent with pricing strength, cost reductions, and improving mix. Overall, the quarter supports a higher earnings/FCF trajectory versus the prior year.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Wall Street trend is decisively upward: a wave of price-target raises and mostly bullish ratings immediately following the strong quarter/guidance. Bulls (Bernstein $500 Outperform, Baird $505 Outperform, Cantor $500 Overweight, Goldman $385 Buy, Citi $460 Buy, MS $468 Overweight, Mizuho $440 Outperform) emphasize tight supply, strong cloud demand, margin expansion, and HAMR momentum. The main bear/neutral counterpoint is valuation/stretch risk and “already pricing in” a long upcycle (UBS Neutral $385; some Equal Weight ratings like Barclays/Wells Fargo despite higher PTs). Net: pros see sustained fundamentals and margin/FCF upside; cons focus on how much optimism is already embedded in the stock price.
Wall Street analysts forecast STX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STX is 310.39 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 465 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast STX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STX is 310.39 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 465 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 446.570
Low
150
Averages
310.39
High
465
Current: 446.570
Low
150
Averages
310.39
High
465
Bernstein
Outperform
maintain
$370 -> $500
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
Reason
Bernstein
Price Target
$370 -> $500
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Seagate to $500 from $370 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes Seagate delivered a strong Q2 with broad-based beats in revenue, margins and adjusted EPS. Guidance for Q3 was considerably higher than Bernstein's and the Street's as strong pricing and HAMR execution set to continue. Demand remains strong, supply remains disciplined with pricing better than expected, but the firm says to not expect NAND like ASP jumps anytime soon.
Baird
Tristan Gerra
Outperform
upgrade
$270 -> $505
2026-01-29
New
Reason
Baird
Tristan Gerra
Price Target
$270 -> $505
2026-01-29
New
upgrade
Outperform
Reason
Baird analyst Tristan Gerra raised the firm's price target on Seagate to $505 from $270 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results and strong visibility ahead.
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