SQM Should I Buy
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SQM is not a clear buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to deploy. The business results are strong, but the stock is technically mixed and the pre-market dip does not create a compelling entry based on the current data. My direct view: hold and wait for a better setup rather than buying immediately.
SQM is trading pre-market at 82.29, down 2.09%, with the latest quoted current price at 84.05. Trend signals are neutral-to-soft: MACD histogram is -0.835 and still negative, RSI_6 is 51.726, and moving averages are converging, which suggests indecision rather than a strong uptrend. Price is sitting just below the pivot of 83.535 and below first resistance at 88.21, while support is at 78.859. The short-term pattern estimate is mixed, with potential near-term downside of -2.83% next day and -1.44% next week, and only a modest 2.1% upside over the next month.
SQM’s latest Q1 2026 results were strong: revenues rose about 69.8% year over year to $1.76 billion, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $837 million, and lithium sales volumes increased 25% year over year to about 69,000 metric tons. Management also expects about 15% growth in total lithium sales for the year. News flow is fundamentally supportive, and analysts at Scotiabank and Deutsche Bank recently raised price targets with bullish ratings.
GAAP EPS for Q1 2026 missed expectations by $0.30 even though revenue was strong. The technical setup is not confirming a breakout yet, with negative MACD and only neutral RSI. Analyst views are mixed, with BofA still at Underperform despite lifting estimates and target, and Rothschild & Co Redburn warning about weaker lithium demand dynamics and possible surplus later in the cycle. There is no supportive insider, hedge fund, or congress trading signal in the data.
Latest quarter: Q1 2026. Financial performance was very strong on the top line and operating level. Revenue increased nearly 70% year over year to $1.76 billion, net income was $364.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $837 million. Lithium sales volumes grew 25% year over year, which is the main growth driver. The main weakness was the GAAP EPS miss versus expectations.
Analyst sentiment has improved recently, but it remains split. Bullish firms have raised targets sharply: Scotiabank moved to $105 from $100 and kept Outperform, and Deutsche Bank raised to $106 from $87 and kept Buy. BofA also lifted its target to $58 from $53, but kept Underperform, showing skepticism about valuation and lithium pricing. Rothschild & Co Redburn is Neutral with an $83 target and sees downside risk from a future lithium surplus. Overall, Wall Street pros are constructive on operations and near-term earnings momentum, but divided on the sustainability of lithium prices and long-term upside.
