Should I Buy SPRY? SPRY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc (SPRY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.030

1 Day change

3.72%

52 Week Range

18.900

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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SPRY is not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. Price is sitting right on first support (~9.96) with bearish moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and a negative MACD histogram, while the pattern-based forward odds also skew to further downside over the next month. Despite strong product-driven revenue growth and bullish Wall Street ratings, the current tape is still technically weak, so I would avoid initiating a new long here (Hold/Wait rather than Buy).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish / oversold-leaning but not yet reversing.

Price action: Regular session -2.20% to ~9.995 post-market, trading just above S1 = 9.958; a clean break below raises odds of testing S2 = 9.646.
Moving averages: Bearish stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms a downtrend.
MACD: Histogram -0.161 (below zero) and negatively contracting → downside momentum persists, with only early signs of deceleration.
RSI(6): 35.63 (weak/near oversold zone) → could bounce, but not a confirmed reversal.
Key levels: Pivot 10.462 is the first “trend repair” level; bulls need to reclaim/hold above it to shift the near-term bias. Resistances: 10.966 (R1) then 11.278 (R2).
Quant/pattern read: Similar-pattern projection indicates ~-0.9% next day, ~-0.98% next week, ~-11.83% next month, reinforcing the bearish setup.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options skew is modestly bullish on positioning but not strongly bullish on flow.

Open Interest Put/Call = 0.61: more calls than puts outstanding → medium-term sentiment leans constructive.
Volume Put/Call = 0.89: today’s trading flow is close to balanced (slight put-lean), not a strong risk-on signal.
Volatility: HV ~73.2 vs IV30 ~70.2 (IV not elevated vs realized). IV percentile 42.6 / IV rank 14.3 suggests IV is not extreme; options aren’t pricing an unusually large imminent move.
Liquidity note: today’s option volume (87) looks small versus 5/10-day averages, so sentiment read from volume is limited.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Commercial traction: Q3 revenue beat commentary from analysts ties momentum to DTC lift, back-to-school demand, and broader prescriber adoption of neffy.
Institutional demand: Hedge funds are reported as buying, with buying amount up 326% QoQ.
Analyst stance remains positive: Recent notes keep Buy/Outperform ratings with large implied upside versus ~$
Potential 2026 tailwinds (per analyst commentary): virtual campaign, real-world evidence expansion, and formulary additions.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Downtrend pressure: Bearish MA structure + negative MACD + price at/near support increases near-term breakdown risk.
No fresh news catalysts in the last week to force a sentiment reversal.
Margin compression: Gross margin fell YoY, which can weigh on confidence as commercialization scales.
Quant/pattern forecast points to continued weakness over the next month (statistical tilt to further drawdown).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $32.50M, up 1471.62% YoY (major growth inflection, consistent with rapid product adoption).
Net income: -$51.15M, improved 167.41% YoY (still loss-making, but moving in the right direction).
EPS: -0.52, improved 160% YoY.
Gross margin: 74.8%, down 20.91% YoY (a key watch item—scaling costs/mix may be pressuring margins). Overall: explosive top-line growth, improving losses, but margin deterioration + ongoing net losses keep the stock sensitive to technicals and sentiment.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: ratings stayed bullish, but one price target was trimmed.

2025-11-11: Oppenheimer Outperform, PT cut $40 → $35 (still very bullish vs current price; cut likely reflects recalibration rather than thesis break).
2025-11-04: Roth Capital resumed Buy, PT $30 (expects significant growth and share gains for neffy). Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Strong commercial ramp, differentiated product, expanding adoption narrative, large upside targets.
Cons: PT cut signals some near-term expectation management; stock’s current technical downtrend suggests the market is not yet rewarding the story. Political/congress check: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided. Insiders: Neutral (no significant recent insider trend).

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SPRY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPRY is 32.5 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 9.670

Low

Averages

32.5

High

Current: 9.670

Low

Averages

32.5

High

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$40 -> $35

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$40 -> $35

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on ARS Pharmaceuticals to $35 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported strong Q3 financials with $32.5M in revenue, beating consensus and surpassing OpCo estimates of $28.7M/$29.4M, respectively. Neffy's momentum reflects the DTC lift, back-to-school demand, and broader prescriber adoption across new epinephrine segments, with upcoming tailwinds from the virtual campaign, growing real-world evidence, and formulary adds in 2026, Oppenheimer adds.

Roth Capital

Kyle Bauser

initiated

$30

2025-11-04

Reason

Roth Capital

Kyle Bauser

Price Target

$30

2025-11-04

initiated

Reason

Roth Capital analyst Kyle Bauser resumed coverage of ARS Pharmaceuticals with a Buy rating and $30 price target. The firm is anticipating significant revenue growth from the rapid adoption of the company's signature product, neffy, which is an innovative intranasal epinephrine device for Type 1 allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The ability of neffy to take significant share from outdated epinephrine auto-injectors is currently underappreciated, particularly given the recent sales growth to date, the firm added.

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SPRY Should I Buy

SPRY Should I Buy

Should You Buy ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc (SPRY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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